Week 3 is in our rear view. We had some really exciting games down in Missouri and Illinois and some snoozers elsewhere for various different reasons. UND, Ind ST, and Murray were unsuccessful in their quest for FBS upsets. We have a few non conference games to clean up this week yet, but then we will be right into the meat of the conference schedule!

Working our way from the top down on the big picture, the models were very impressed with the Jacks win in Minneapolis. It didn’t look as favorably on NDSU for letting off the gas late. Both the models and the polesters seem to think that SIU did exactly what was expected of them, which is interesting as we’ll discuss later. I was very impressed with that win. UNI made the only pass of the week with their beating of Idaho State putting them back ahead of UND after the latter’s loss on the smurf turf. Youngstown’s 3 score win over Bob Morris was not impressive to the models nor was Illinois State dropping a close rivalry game to Eastern Illinois. Missouri State stayed flat on the bye as one might expect. Another poor Indiana State showing continues to steer them towards the other two bottom dwellers. The lowest of which, Western Illinois is still the only team that doesn’t control their own destiny.

12.  Western Illinois (0.97, 0.83) (0-3, 0-1 actual)

Easiest Game Remaining: @ Indiana State (0-3) (+5.5, 37.37%) Week 11

Toughest Game Remaining : @ #2 NDSU (3-0) (+36.5, 0.7%) Week 8

Last Week: Lost vs Lindenwood (2-1) 40-43

This one has to hurt a little. This was a game against a future conference rival, and the best shot for the Leathernecks to end their current losing streak that is now up to 16. Western did all the things you could’ve hoped for to win this one and it still somehow didn’t bounce their way. They led the matchup in total offense, TO margin, TOP, fewer penalty yards, and yet they still came up just short. A big reason was going 1-4 on 4th downs. However, I commend Coach Hendrickson for doing what he needed to to be aggressive in order to pull this one out. The Leathernecks jumped out ahead 14 in the 1st and led at 17 at one point in the 2nd and at half. However, the Lions fought back in the latter frames taking their first lead 35-34 on a 72 yd catch and run in the 4th and having QB Cole Dugger again connect with top receiver Jeff Caldwell from 16 yds out for the 2nd lead and final score of the game with 1:13 remaining after the WIU desperation drive came up short. Matt Morrissey another monster game. If this trend continues of his high level play, might we see him attempt to transfer to a higher level program for his senior year next year?

This Week: @ Southern Utah (0-3) (+16.5, 13.49%), 7 PM Sat 9/23, ESPN+

The Leathernecks will head to Cedar City, UT to play the Thunderbirds of Southern Utah. SUU comes into this one 0-3 as well, however, their losses are to 2 FBS teams and a close one last week to a ranked opponent in the form of UC Davis. Although the predictive line is fairly broad on this one we could see something similar to last week. Both teams both allow and gain a lot of yardage through the air while not having much of a rushing attack or defense to speak of. If you like mediocre high scoring games you won’t want to miss this one.

11.  Murray State (2.04, 1.04) (1-2, 0-0)

Easiest Game Remaining: Indiana State (0-3) (+1, 46.16%) Week 5

Toughest Game Remaining: @ #2 NDSU (3-0) (+34, 0.4%) Week 9

Last Week: Lost @ Middle Tennessee (1-2) 14-35

DJ Williams seems to have finally won out the job for the Racers. Although it was not a close loss you do have to like what you saw out of Murray in this one at least offensively. They compiled 401 yards of total offense and were fairly balanced in doing so gaining 207 on the ground and 194 through the air. A -2 turnover margin and an inability to slow down the attack on the other side is what really did the Racers in on this one. Defensive improvement is definitely needed, but all and all not a bad showing for having played an FBS opponent.

This Week: Bye

.Honestly while the Racers are not going to be good or a factor for the title this year there are some things to be excited about. DJ Williams and the offense as a whole are putting some good tape out there and just might will them to a game or two more yet this year. However, if that is going to happen their defense will need some work all the way from top to bottom.

10. Indiana State (1.75, 1.75) (0-3, 0-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-3, 0-1) (-5.5, 62.63%) Week 11

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #12 SIU (3-0) (+26.5, 2.54) Week 12

Last Week: Lost @ Ball State (1-2) 7-45

Well anything can happen in a rivalry game but not this one or this week I guess. I try to at least look at the highlights and play logs of each game, but I’ll be honest with you, you’re getting box score analysis here. Ball State dominated every statistical category as they rolled to their first win of the year against their historic rival.

This Week: Bye

What a horrible start to the year for Indiana State. Returning MVFC newcomer of the year Cade Chambers has yet to take a snap due to an undisclosed injury in camp. The other 3 (yep totally glazed over that by not doing an in depth recap this week, but welcome to the carousel Mr. Elijah Owens)  guys who have replaced him, including the guy he got promoted over, Gavin Screws. There isn’t much in the form of local media covering the Sycamores so I don’t actually know what Justin Dinka’s deal is. Whether he’s hurt or just not playing well he has been limited all year and has done nothing with the opportunities he has had. That is all to say without discussing their dumpster fire defense. I was cautiously optimistic coming into this season that Indiana State could be improved and maybe do a little moving and shaking towards the bottom of the middle of the pack, but at this point of the year just staying out of the basement is probably the goal. As far as what they should work on over the Bye? Everything.

9.  Missouri State (4.28, 3.44) (0-2, 0-0)

Easiest Game Remaining: Murray State (1-2) (-17, 88.91%) Week 8

Toughest Game Remaining: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+24.5, 4.43%) Week 12

Last Week: Bye

This Week: Vs Utah Tech (1-2) (-14.5, 84.24%), 2 PM CST Sat 9/23, ESPN+ *ALEX’S GAME OF THE WEEK*

I know it is not a super compelling game of the week, but to be fair there are only 3 games this week and they are all 2+ score spreads. So while there aren’t necessarily a ton of story lines here either other than the Bears trying to get in the win column for the first time in 2023; I do think the overall talent level and watchability of the 3 games will be highest here. UT Tech comes into this one fresh off their first win of the year against NAU in a high scoring 50-36 affair. Their other two games are losses to the Montana schools.

The key for Missouri State in this one if they want to get that elusive first victory is going to be being able to run the ball as UT Tech gives up 276 a game! That is far too large a weakness to not take advantage of especially with a back like Jacardia Wright. While UT Tech has had a modicum of success moving the football it has come primarily through the air so the Missouri State defenders will have to clamp down on the outside in this one to give their team their best shot.

8.  South Dakota (5.86, 3.86) (2-1, 0-0)

Easiest Game Remaining: Vs Murray State (1-2) (-18, 91.72%) Week 6 

Toughest Game Remaining: @ #2 North Dakota State (3-0) (+20.5, 5.63%) Week 5

Last Week: Won Vs Lamar (0-3) 35-6

You could accuse the Yotes of another slow start this week and you wouldn’t be completely wrong. Lamar kicked FGs on their first 2 drives and picked off an Aidan Bouman pass in between to jump out to the early 6-0 lead, but this was a pretty short game in terms of possessions and plays ran. There were only 116 total offensive plays run and both teams only threw the ball a combined 36 times with Bouman only attempting 9 passes for the Yotes in a complete script reversal of prior weeks. Hard to say it didn’t work for them though as they finally found their footing on the offensive line when it comes to run blocking. Nate Thomas and Travis Thies both went over 100 yards and they had over 300 as a team on 39 carries for a 7.8 yd/att average. This is probably closer to the type of offense Josh Davis wants to call. Now the trick will be finding a way to do it against a team that doesn’t rank bottom 20 in rush defense. The Yote defense played stellar again and are continuing to look like a formidable group.They had an astonishing 7 sacks on the day led by Brendan Webb with 3.5, while I’m not quite sold on the offense after 1 turn around game against a bad opponent the defense looks legit. Like I said you could put the slow start out there, but the Yotes scored TDs on 5 of their 8 drives and held Lamar to 6 points on their 8. All and all a good day in front of a little over half full dome.

This Week : Bye

USD finally got their offense looking like what it is presumed they want it to look like. They really need to evaluate what went better this week and continue to grow in those areas. They also need to figure out how to start hot. I know I just got done kind of hand waving away that in the game recap, but it is a little bit of a pattern. The beginning of a game when an offense is on “the script” (usually 10-20 plays you have practiced specifically for the week’s opponent) is when the offense should be at its sharpest. This seems like when this Yotes squad is at their clunkiest. To me that almost seems like they just need to dumb down their game plans and play ball. Work on a lot of the basics this week.

I know we just talked a lot about the offense, but I really don’t have much to say for the defense. They got moved around a little bit week 1 against Missouri, but that was expected and they adjusted well. As far as I’m concerned they just need to keep doing what they are doing because the defensive unit is what is going to keep them in games even if they aren’t winning them all down the stretch.

7.  Illinois State (6.07, 4.15) (2-1, 1-0)

Easiest Game Remaining: Lindenwood (2-1) (-21.5, 91.92%) Week 4

Toughest Game Remaining: #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+20.5, 5.67%) Week 6

Last Week: Lost @ RV Eastern Illinois (2-1) 14-13

Look I know this is a rivalry, and EIU is starting to look like they may contend in the OVC, but what a horrible game for the Redbirds. They lost the turnover battle by one, and man, the last one was a big one, we’ll get there. They left 7 points on the board in the kicking game in a game they lost by 1. They missed 2 FGs and an XP, and worse yet both FGs were chip shots. Yes there was a little bit of wind, but you have to have those. The Redbird offense was ok most of the day racking up 342 total yards being fairly balanced in the process in a good not great showing, but between that and a stellar defensive effort, once again until the very end, that saw them only give up 291 total yards only 18 of which were on the ground the ST unit really cost them the game here if you look at the whole course of it.

If you want the nitty gritty of it all I actually watched the end of it live on my phone at Target Field as the SDSU game was over in every way but the clock hitting zeros. After the game was tied at 7 most of the second half with 4:04 left Redbird junior RB and emerging star Mason Blakemore plunged in from 12 yds out. The PAT was missed putting the score at 13-7 with 4:01 remaining. EIU made their way near midfield in 3 plays, but then a Pierce Holley gave the Redbirds the ball back and a chance to kill the clock with only 2:48 left. Unfortunately for the Redbirds due to penalties and TFLs they would net -10 yds on the drive and go 3 and out sending the ball back to EIU with 1:32 to play. Despite a good coffin corner kick (the best ST play of the day for ISUr) pinning the Panthers inside their own 10 they wouldn’t even see a 3rd down on the drive going 93 yards in 9 plays capped by a 25 yd Pierce Holley TD pass to Justin Thomas with 30 seconds left and a good PAT to make it 14-13. Zach Annexstad on the final drive of the game would actually get to the edge of field goal range but just as he had done one prior on the day he threw a pick, thus effectively ending the game with 10 seconds left and no way for the Redbirds to stop the clock. Brutal.

This Week: Lindenwood (2-1) (-21.5, 91.92%), 12 PM CST Sat 9/23, ESPN+

I feel like Lindenwood, Drake, and EIU should just join the Valley (that’s sarcasm please no more teams. Someone take a few while you’re here) with how much they have played MVFC teams in non conference the last few years. This year they round out our non conference slate against Illinois State. Despite a 2-1 record I don’t know that this will be close as Lindenwood just is not the same caliber of team. I know scoring differential is not always the best comparison, but the respective scoring differentials for the common opponent WIU, are 14 for Illinois State and 3 for Lindenwood. Lindenwood has been pretty balanced on offense this year, but even in last week’s loss the Redbird defense continues to be stingy so it may be tough sledding there. Offensively the Lion rush defense has been respectable, so in order to hit some big plays and keep them honest Zach Annexstad will have to be on his game. I feel like I have said that a lot this year and it just really hasn’t happened yet. While that might be the difference between a 4 quarter game and a comfortable win this week his play will really need to improve and gain consistency if they still want to reach their season long goals.

 6. #24 Youngstown State (6.37, 4.37) (2-1, 0-0)

Easiest Game Remaining: @ Indiana State (0-3) (-15, 85.53%) Week 10

Toughest Game Remaining: #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+16, 13.17%) Week 11

Last Week: Won Vs Robert Morris (1-2) 48-28

I won’t dwell too long on this one. Although a little closer than the models said it should’ve been; it was still a 3 score win and never really felt like it was close. Mitch Davidson put up some video game numbers on the day going 21 for 26 for 339 yds a score and a pick. Tyshon King seems to have officially at least earned a spot alongside Dra Rushton as the co-featured back earning a lion’s share of the carries this week getting 12 for 117 yds and 3 TDs which was enough to earn him MVFC newcomer of the week. 

This Week: Bye

The Penguins are kind of Jack of all Master of none at this point in the year. I don’t know that they have one glaringly obvious weakness they really need to hone in on during their bye week so much as they just need to keep trying to get a little bit better at everything. I don’t know that they are quite at the level our top 3 teams in the conference are right now, and their schedule hasn’t shown us a ton. I do think though that they are playing some good football right now and could continue to do so down the stretch and make some waves later in the year.

 5. (-1) #14 North Dakota (6.87, 4.87) (2-1, 0-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-3, 0-1) (-24.5, 94.91%) Week 6

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+17.5, 10.83%) Week 5

Last Week: Lost @ Boise State (1-2) 18-42

UND hung with Boise for about the first 3 quarters before they just started to get out “physicaled” on both lines of scrimmage. It never really felt like UND was out of it until the 4th, but they also were never within less than 2 scores after the midway point of the 2nd quarter. While the rushing was not quite as bad as the 42 yd net box score might indicate as Schuster was sacked 6 times for 48 yards, it was ineffective enough that the Fighting Hawks got one dimensional late. Hard to believe it as well, especially how well he played in the first half but Schuster finished a very pedestrian 17/29 for 142 yds and a TD.

Defensively I know it was an FBS foe, but after showing some cracks late last week the dam burst this week. While the rushing yards were an ok 132 allowed it gets better or worse pending how you look at it when you account for the fact that 47 of those yards came on QB scrambles. Through the air they gave up 262 yards and 11.4/att. While certainly not unfixable it did show the new look defense has a lot of work to do.

This Week: Bye

It feels strange to write this as a critique of the first 3 weeks of the year as it could be said of this program the last 2-3 years, but it still rings true. Over the break UND needs to get tougher on the offensive line to allow their offense to be less one dimensional against good defenses. And on their defense themselves they just need to keep growing into that system. While overall the results haven’t been horrible, they need to keep working so when they “bend but don’t break” they don’t quite bend so far.

4. (+1)RV Northern Iowa (5.89, 4.89) (1-2, 0-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-3, 0-1) (-27, 96.89%) Week 10

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+16.5, 12.6%) Week 7

Last Week: Won @ Idaho St (0-3) 41-17

Not a lot to do, say, or see here. UNI took care of business against a team they should’ve beat handily in the first half and they were able to fairly easily coast the second half on away in this one. Offensively they exploded for over 500 yards of total offense and Theo Day looked like he had been expected to finally. Defensively that front continues to look stout, only giving up 28 net rushing yards, but the back end did give up 318 in the air. That could continue to bite them against the more balanced attacks especially as we turn towards conference play.

This Week: Bye

The offense should build upon what they did this week and throw out everything affiliated from the first two weeks gameplay wise. Keep building into the team’s strengths and take the bye week to simplify some things and build around Day. Defensively the very solid front 7 just needs to keep doing their thing, but on the back end they need to get on the same page. Coverage lapses happen when communication breaks down. That DB room needs to come together and get everyone working on the same assignments and understandings of their schemes.

3. #12 Southern Illinois (8.57, 5.57) (3-0, 0-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Indiana State (0-3) (-26.5, 97.46%) Week 12

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #2 North Dakota State (3-0) (+10.5, 22.13%) Week 11

Last Week: Win @ #16 SEMO (1-2) 26-25

The War for the Wheel lived up to every bit of the hype. In the first half it was all SEMO all the time. Thanks in part to 2 Nic Baker INTs the Redhawks took a 15-0 lead into intermission. On the opening kick of the half it looked like it was going to be more of the same as the Saluki return man mishandled the kick causing the drive to start at the Salukis’ own 10. However they went on a 9 play, 90 yard scoring drive to open the half capped by a Ro Elliot TD scamper. From there we had ourselves a ball game. After the Salukis forced a Redhawk punt on the following drive the teams exchanged TD drives to make the score in favor of the Redhawks 22-13. Then the chaos started. The Salukis looked to be in prime position to cut the lead to a single score when just outside the red zone WR Ryan Schwendeman put the ball on the deck. SEMO recovered but was forced to a quick 3 and out. SIU then fumbled again after getting the ball back. Paxton DeLarent, Geno Hess, and co would this time take advantage of the short field to tack on a FG to make it 25-13 early in the final frame. SIU would respond with a long TD drive capped by Nic Baker hitting Izaiah Hartrup for a 15 yard strike after going 2/2 on 4th down on the drive to cut the lead to 25-20. (Those consecutive 4th down conversions were giving me PST to the 2021 SDSU vs SIU game and the drive that sent the game to OT) A quick stop again and the Salukis had the ball down 5, with 5 minutes and change to go 83 yards to take their first lead of the night. They would make it all the way down to the SEMO 30 before the Redhawks forced a 4th and 11. It appeared Baker had run out of that patented magic as on this play his pass fell harmlessly to the turf in the general vicinity of who I believe was D’Ante Cox. SEMO would get the ball back in a 4 minute drill (3:39 remaining) with one of the best backs in the FCS Geno Hess at their disposal. Everything seemed to be going according to plan to end it there and send the home crowd happy until with 1:46 left on a 3rd and 4 Hess was met just shy of the marker by Desman Hearns who also ripped the ball out of his arms. Now not only did SIU have the ball back with 1:46 to play, but they also had favorable field position only having to go 38 yards for the game winning score. The Salukis had 3rd and 1 from the 5  with about 40 seconds left when Baker got sacked. This set up 4th and 5 from the 9. Once again a 4th down for Nic Baker with the game on the line. He would not be denied. He dropped back and found Hartrup breaking across the end line right at the back of the end zone for the game deciding score with 11 seconds left. Baker’s heroics won him both the MVFC and National offensive player of the week, his final stat line was 37-51, 458 yds, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. PJ Jules went back to back as the MVFC defensive player of the week. He led the team with 15 solo tackles and was a big reason they held the Redhawks to 86 net yards rushing and 337 of total offense. Forcing SEMO to settle for FGs on those 3 early game redzone trips was the difference in this one. He also defended 3 passes.

This Week: Bye

I hate to beat a dead horse for a team that’s playing so well and on the up and up, but they need to use this extra week to find more in their rush offense. The efficiency in their ground game just hasn’t been there and you can’t afford to be one dimensional against the top Valley defenses. It also could just be a blip on the radar since they are +2 on the year, but another reason the SEMO game was so close despite the offensive outputs was that SIU was -3 TO margin on the day. They will need to clean that up as well.

Defensively this group looks really good right now. I wouldn’t worry about honing on any one thing too specifically.

2. #2 North Dakota State  (9.41, 6.41) (3-0, 0-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Murray State (1-2) (-34.5, 99.6%) Week 9

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+5, 37.77%) Week 10

Last Week: Win vs RV Central Arkansas (1-2) 49-31

NDSU did what they were supposed to with Central Arkansas. You have to hand it to them there. Offensively this is the best and most complete they have looked. I don’t know if it was a different game plan, or something just clicked but that is by far the most  both confident and comfortable Cam Miller, at least in my eyes, has looked. Other people have been trying to say in the other games this year he has, but even if you just look at the numbers efficiency wise he was off the charts this week. He only threw 1 incompletion on 19 attempts and threw for around 11 yd/att and 2 TDs. Even with he and Payton combining for 246 through the air they still put out 235 yards on the ground led by Tamerik Williams. Barika Kpeenu also had a little bit of a coming out party ripping off 54 yards on only 5 carries. This will be a scary offense if they can click like this all year.

Defensively this was not their best performance. Yes UCA scored 14 of their points after the game was in hand in the 4th but the Bison still had a combination of starters and guys they hope are going to be season long contributors out there on those drives. While you would expect the young secondary group to have been the source of the woes they gave up 210 yards in the air on a good not great, ok not bad, kind of outing. What was shocking was the way they didn’t just bleed but gushed in the run game at times. ShunDerrick Powell was a menace for the Bears.  He gashed the Bison 3 separate times for big gains including a 71 yard house call and finished with 22 touches for 248 all purpose yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Even if you take out his 3 long runs he still would’ve been over 120 on 15 carries. Something you very rarely see against NDSU especially outside of conference play. Back on the positives the defense did force two takeaways including Eli Mostaert tipping a ball to himself and taking it back all the way the other way.

This Week: Bye

Consistency consistency consistency, that is what Matt Entz should be preaching this week. If NDSU can unlock the week 3 offense, especially Cam Miller along with the defense they played against Maine and in flashes against EWU this team will be right back where they want to be.

1. #1 South Dakota State  (9.81, 6.81) (3-0, 0-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Missouri State (0-2) (-24.5, 95.57%) Week 12

Toughest Game:  #2 North Dakota State (3-0) (-5, 62.23%) Week 10

Last Week: Win vs Drake (0-3) 70-7

I hope everyone enjoyed the experience. I thought it was fun, but the crowd was a little dead. I’ll be curious to see what something like that would look like against a better opponent. Hopefully sometime in the near future we do.

As far as the game itself outside of allowing too many yards through the air, especially when most of which came on the first drive there isn’t a whole lot else to say. The slow start for the pass rush is quickly growing into a bigger concern but I did feel like the pressure was a little better this week.

This Week: Bye

As alluded to above and as everyone has said the main focus this week has to be in improving D-line play especially the pass rush. I know they started off slow last year too before they really kicked it into gear, but 0 sacks is pretty poor.  I think if that was the only department the team improved in coming off the bye the fans would be very happy.

Well get your fall cleaning and whatever else done this week, because we have 9/12 MVFC teams including the Jacks on bye. Then we’ll come back the week after and the “real” football will begin.

Go Jacks!

Alex