Huge win for the Jacks this week and with that they now solely control their destiny in the Valley. They currently sit at about a 95% chance to win the autobid and if they win Saturday it goes up to >99%. We had two more eliminations this week too. Murray State will not win the conference title in their first year in the MVFC. Illinois State will also not reach the postseason as the conference champs this year, but they still have some slim hopes alive at this point to be an at large.
We actually have one clinch scenario this week so below I’ll present that as well all the possible elimination scenarios for all remaining teams here:
SDSU
-Clinches autobid with win AND USD loss AND UNI loss AND YSU loss
UNI
-Eliminated with loss AND SDSU win
USD
-Eliminated with loss AND SDSU win
UND
-Eliminated with a loss OR SDSU win
SIU
-Eliminated with a loss OR SDSU win
YSU
-Eliminated with a loss AND SDSU win
NDSU
-Eliminated with a loss
Missouri State
-Eliminated with a loss OR SDSU win
We may have started to reach the league’s boiling point here let’s take a look at the standings, last week’s recaps, and some of the matchups ahead.
12. Western Illinois (0.25, 0.25) (0-8, 0-5 actual)
Last Week: Loss @ #10 Southern Illinois (6-2, 3-2) 0-63
I didn’t think there was much to say last week, but good lord. I get Southern Illinois was out to avenge their SDSU loss but this was brutal. The Leathernecks only had 134 yds of offense to the Salukis 476. The losing streak for the Necks extends to 21. I’m not quite sure what else there even is to say.
This Week: @ #18 Northern Iowa (5-3, 3-1) (+33, 1.33%), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4, PSN-TV/KCRG TV/ESPN+
11. Indiana State (0.93, 0.93) (0-8, 0-5)
Last Week: Lost @ #13 North Dakota (5-3, 3-2) 33-36 OT
The Sycamores came out and put up another dogfight. This is more what I thought they would look like when I was so high on them to start the year. Offensively they continued to lean on both Chambers and Owens at QB. I think they are just a bit better and more consistent with Chambers under center. Combined they went a modest 19-34 246, 2-2. They split almost everything pretty well down the middle except for both INTs being Owens’. Justin Dinka finally showed up this year and only had 16 carries but rattled off 81 yards and 2 scores on them to lead a rushing attack that finished with a modest 32-142-2. I think ultimately in this one what undid the Sycamores were the 2 Owens INTs. Both happened on the outset of field goal range and the Hawks aso converted one into 6. Neither the offense or defense did their job in OT and that allowed them to give it away right at the end.
This Week: Vs #22 Youngstown State (5-3, 3-2) (+17, 12.11%), 12 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
10. Murray State (2.27, 1.27) (2-6, 1-4)
Last Week: Lost @ #11 North Dakota State (6-2, 3-2) 6-38
This one was never really in question. The bison led the entire way and held the Racers to just 168 total yards of offense. Although Murray State has slightly overachieved this year and NDSU looks like they may be down a little there was still no avoiding taking the official initiation to the MVFC that is a thumping in the FargoDome.
This Week: Vs #13 North Dakota (5-3, 3-2) (+18.5, 9.47%), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
9. Missouri State (3.94, 2.94) (3-5, 2-3)
Last Week: Lost @ #22 Youngstown State (5-3, 3-2) 28-44
Still no Jacob Clarke for the Bears, but once again Jordan Pachot played well going 25-38, 341 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. However, despite the Bears having another prolific day through the air, they were somewhat dominated in the trenches as they gave up 5 sacks and only rushed for 95 net yards as a team. This game was close for the first half but Youngstown points on either side of halftime pushed it out of reach quickly. Defensively the Bears put up an ok effort on their rush defense giving up a shade over 100 yards, but they gave up 415 through the air and that is how this one got away from them.
This Week: Vs Illinois State (4-4, 2-3) (-1, 53.55%), 2 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
8. Illinois State (5.72, 3.72) (4-4, 2-3)
Last Week: Lost Vs #18 Northern Iowa (5-3, 4-1) 21-24
The Redbirds lost for the second week in a row and now Brock Spack’s crew is likely staring down having to win out for a shot at the post season. This one wasn’t quite as close as the score looked as Illinois State scored their last TD with about 30 seconds left in the game. Zack Annexstad did his part as he normally does, going 33-44 for 292 yds and 2 TD and 1 INT. The defense did an ok job as the slowed the UNI rushing attack to just 100 yards on the ground, and despite the nearly 300 passing yards they let Theo Day put up, they only surrendered 24 points. Where this game was really lost for Illinois State in this one was a Mason Blakemore fumble in UNI territory on the first series that ended up being the turnover difference in the game after Annexstad and Day threw a pick a piece. As well as the Redbird offense being forced into being 1 dimensional as they could only muster a horrid 45 net yards on the day. As stated Illinois State is probably looking at winning out for any chance at the post season at this point. If they are going to do that they are going to have to find some consistency, which they have been unable to do thus far this year.
This Week: @ Missouri State (3-5, 2-3) (+1, 46.45%), 2 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
7. (-1) #11 North Dakota State (7.67, 4.67) (6-2, 3-2)
Last Week: Won Vs Murray State (2-6, 1-5) 38-6
Another drubbing of a bad team by the Bison that reminds everyone despite how their year started they are still very dangerous. Cam Miller has continued to be ultra efficient this year going 18-24 192 yards and 2 TDs. On the ground they once again did it by committee having 7 different players carry the ball 34 times for 175 yards led by Miller with 6 carries for 55 yards and two scores. Defensively the Bison were strong holding the Racers to just 152 total yards of offense and 6 points. LB Logan Kopp was MVFC player of the week for his efforts of 7 solo tkls and 1 INT in the victory.
This Week: @ #1 South Dakota State (8-0, 5-0) (+9.5, 25.68%), 2 PM CST Sat 11/4, Midco/Midco+/ESPN+
6. (+1) #22 Youngstown State (6.91, 4.91) (5-3, 3-2)
Last Week: Won Vs Missouri State (3-5, 2-3) 44-28
The Penguin Secondary continues to show poor this time giving up 341 yards to Jordan Pachot and co. However, slowing down the Bear rushing attack was enough to hold back the Bears from being able to keep up with Mitch Davison and friends. Speaking of Mitch Davidson had a wildly impressive performance going 26-33 for 390 yards and 4 scores. This earned Davidson the MVFC offensive player of the week award. Although they have certainly shown to be capable of more the Penguins only averaged a shade over 100 yards rushing on the day with King and Rushton both held to under a 4 yd/carry average, but it was enough to keep the Bears honest. Youngstown continues to show that they have an offense that can play with anyone, but if they are going to make a deep playoff run like many think that they are capable of they are going to have to find some sort of secondary to speak of.
This Week: @ Indiana State (0-8, 0-5) (-17, 87.88%), 12 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
5. #10 Southern Illinois (8.01, 5.01) (6-2, 3-2)
Last Week: Won @ Western Illinois (0-8, 0-5) 63-0
This was an ass kicking from whistle to whistle. Baker went 11-17, 186 yards and 3 TDs before being told to sit down and take a load off. As a team they rushed for 228 yards on 34 carries for 4 TDs led by Lashaun Lester going for 139 on 10. Defensively they held the Leathernecks under 160 total yards of offense. The Salukis did get a little careless with the football, putting it on the ground and losing it twice in this one, but other than that everything went the Salukis way in this one.
This Week: Vs #9 South Dakota (6-2, 4-1) (-9, 76.09%), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
4. #13 North Dakota (7.09, 5.09) (5-3, 3-2)
Last Week: Won Vs Indiana State (0-8, 0-5) 36-33 OT
Even though this was a win you can’t really feel good about this if you’re a Fighting Hawks fan. Not only that, but they had to come from behind to kick a FG as time was expiring in regulation just to get to overtime. Why did it go wrong? The UND defense was non-existent in this one giving up 246 passing yards and 388 yards of total offense, both of which were season highs for the Trees. The F’in Hawks just couldn’t separate in this one and that should be concerning. Could this be closer finally to what we thought we would see from the Sycamores to start the year? Maybe, but this still should’ve been a game where they took care of them. UND has a lot to clean up before they think about going onto a playoff run.
This Week: @ Murray State (2-6, 1-6) (-18.5, 90.53%), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
3. (-1) #9 South Dakota (7.70, 5.70) (6-2, 4-1)
Last Week: Lost Vs #1 South Dakota State (8-0, 5-0) 3-37
Well it was 3-0 Yotes at the end of one and if you were a Yote fan you probably turned it off or left shortly thereafter as the Jacks woke up and the rout was on. Offensively this was by far the worst game USD has had this year. Adan Bouman went a poor 17-31 133 yards and 2 INTs, and what was being touted as a very strong rushing attack, a bit undeservedly in my opinion, only netted 50 yards on 21 carries. Defensively USD gave up the most points they had all year and the most rushing yards all year at 266. This game showed USD has a long way to go if they want to reach the Summit, but I still think this is a good football team that will make some waves this year.
This Week : @ #10 Southern Illinois (6-2, 3-2) (+9, 23.91%), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
2. (+1) #18 Northern Iowa (6.93, 5.93) (5-3, 4-1)
Last Week: Won Vs Illinois State (4-4, 2-3) 24-21
As discussed above this wasn’t quite as close as the score would indicate. I think this is a game that can both give you some enthusiasm as well as some pause and honestly the biggest source of both for me is Theo Day. It is obviously fairly easy to point to the QB for both the blame and accolades pending what the results are. This was one of Day’s better games on the year as he went 20-30 for 289 yards, a TD, and an INT. He was also sacked 3 times. While Day looked strong the inability to avoid sacks as well the pick has to still be concerning. I still don’t know that we have seen the Theo Day that we all think we are capable of seeing yet, and that is exactly what I mean. There is still a chance T-5000 Theo Day shows up this season still and goes scorched earth taking the Panthers on a deep playoff run, but at the same time we are headed into week 10. Not that he is playing poorly, but if he is going to reach that elite form when are we going to see it?
Most of my other notes from this one concerned the fact that the UNI secondary still looks very vulnerable at times. If anything will let them down here out the stretch that will be it.
This Week: Vs Western Illinois (0-8, 0-5) (-33, 98.67%), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4, PSN-TV/CFU-15/KCRG 9.2/Marquee SN/ESPN+
1. #1 South Dakota State (10.57, 7.57) (8-0, 5-0)
Last Week: Won @ #9 South Dakota (6-2, 4-1) 37-3
The Jacks shook off a slow start to throttle the Yotes in front of a neutral site, I mean, hostile crowd in Vermillion. As discussed in the USD recap the Jacks rushed for a staggering 266 yards in what was very much a team effort. I still would like to see a Jacks team that starts and stays hot week in and week out, but as long as they keep in the in column I suppose everything we have to critique will mostly be nitpicking. Shoutout to Hunter Dustman, he was excellent in all his duties all game and went 2/2 on FGs including a career long of 50 earning him MVFC ST player of the week honors.
This Week: VS #11 North Dakota State (6-2, 3-2) (-9.5, 74.32%), 2 PM CST Sat 11/4, Midco/Midco+/ESPN+
Game Previews
Illinois State (4-4, 2-3) @ Missouri State (3-5, 2-3) (-1), 2 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
This will be a sneaky good game. Illinois State is fighting for what little playoff hopes they have left and Missouri State will be looking to show they are not indicative of the poor results they have garnered this season. Personally for me in a game that’s expected to be close like this I look at what team can control the clock and play defense. Missouri State is giving up 424 yards of total offense and 178 on the ground. They gain 100 yards on the ground, but have a prolific passing offense to the tune of 300 yards per game. On the other side Illinois State is rushing for 175 yards and gaining 412 total while surrendering 325 total and 134 on the ground. Yes Zack Annexstad and Jordan Pachot have been the stars for their respective teams this year, but I look for Redbird tailback Mason Blakemore to be the difference maker in this one. His ability to move the ball on the ground will allow the Redbirds to move the ball and control the clock enough to win a close one.
#22 Youngstown State (5-3, 3-2) @ Indiana State (0-8, 0-5) (+17), 12 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
Indiana State continues to play hard and make their opponents earn their victories every week. Personally I don’t understand this Cade Chambers/Elijah Owens 2 QB nonsense. I think they just need to ride Chambers. Especially this week where they are headed to play a good Youngstown team with one glaring weakness in the form of their secondary. I don’t think they are able to do it. They might keep it close for the first half, but Mitch Davidson and the Penguin offense will overwhelm them and force them to chase points. This is a YSU team that is on a mission after feeling like they were snubbed from the playoffs last year and are going to do everything in their power to not leave their invite to chance this year.
#13 North Dakota (5-3, 3-2) @ Murray State (2-6, 1-4) (+18.5), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
Murray State is another team on the back end of the standings that is continuing to play hard. Across from them on Saturday will be a North Dakota team that has underwhelmed in their last 2 games after their huge upset of their arch rival North Dakota State. Add in the fact that UND is notoriously bad on the road and I think this game will be a good bit more interesting than it should. However, much like last week I think the veteran experience of Tommy Schuester and Bo Belquist and the rest of the UND offense allow them to pull the win out late.
The one thing I will be watching in this one is the North Dakota defense. They were unimpressive last week and have been very hot and cold on the balance this year. This is a Murray State unit that has not been good this year only scoring 16 oppg and amassing 284 yards per game. If the Racers are able to move the ball on the F’ing Hawks it could spell trouble down the stretch.
#9 South Dakota (6-2, 4-1) @ #10 Southern Illinois (6-2, 3-2) (-9), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4, ESPN+
This one has huge long term playoff implications when you look at both team’s schedules here for the final 3 weeks of the regular season. The winner of this game will have the inside track to a seed and the loser will be looking to make sure they secure their last 2 games just to try to make sure they stay off the bubble.
On paper this is a matchup of elite defenses. South Dakota plays a more bend but don’t break style allowing 381 yards per game but just shy of 18 ppg. SIU on the other hand is more of the whole package allowing just an average of 281 yards per game and 16.6 ppg. Offensively both teams try to play complimentary football, high percentage plays, high efficiency drives, and control the clock. I think the x-factor in this one will be, not to sound too much like one Stone Labanowits, the athletes for the Salukis. Aidan Bouamn is a good QB for the Yotes, but Nic Baker and his experience will allow them to make plays when they need to. Add in the fact that the SIU defense has a play maker like PJ Jules who can make plays all over the field when you need him, and I like the Salukis in this one.
Western Illinois (0-8, 0-5) @ #18 Northern Iowa (5-3, 4-1) (-33), 1 PM CST Sat 11/4,PSN-TV/CFU-15/KCRG 9.2/Marquee SN/ESPN+
One of the hottest teams in the FCS in one of the toughest environments in the FCS against a team that has lost 21 straight. Anything can happen in the Valley, but if you’re looking for anything other than the Panthers smacking the Necks around look elsewhere.
#11 North Dakota State (6-2, 3-2) @ #1 South Dakota State (8-0, 5-0) (-9.5), 2 PM CST Sat 11/4, Midco/Midco+/ESPN+ *ALEX’S GAME OF THE WEEK*
What a weird lead up to a Marker game. This is by far the most the Jacks will have ever been favored. It however will also be the most motivated NDSU team has ever been coming into Brookings. Don’t be shocked if this one is close, but my personal opinion is that Jimmy Rogers and Chris Kracht will have them locked in. Look for the Jacks to take all the early shots the Bison throw at them in the first half right on the chin, but to stay in striking distance if not keep a slim lead, and then execute some big opportunities to pull away in the second half. Sorry for nothing higher level in this one, but as always we have it in spades in our other blog posts and podcasts!
Thanks for taking the time to read, and don’t be afraid to reach out if you see me around the stadium on Saturday as always.
Go Jacks!
Alex
