The Jacks rattle off another big one that continues to leave them in the driver seat for the autobid and the MVFC title. At this point their odds currently sit at >99.9% to win the autobid and >85% to win the conference title outright with no sharing. We officially eliminated UND, SIU, NDSU, and Missouri State this past week with their losses with the exception of UND, who simply were put out of reach via the Jacks’ win.
Clinching and elimination for autobid scenarios seen below:
SDSU
-Clinches autobid with win
UNI
-Eliminated with loss OR SDSU win
USD
-Eliminated with loss OR SDSU win
YSU
-Eliminated with a loss
12. Western Illinois (0.17, 0.17) (0-9, 0-6 actual)
Last Week: Loss @ #15 Northern Iowa (6-3, 5-1) 6-50
22. Don’t know what else to say in this one as the Panthers knocked the Leathernecks around from start to finish in this one. We are starting to see the Leathernecks give up a little bit, and while I don’t blame them it is still a sad thing to see.
This Week: @ Indiana State (0-9, 0-6)
Model Prediction: +15, 84.61% WP
Broadcast: 12 PM CST Sat 11/11, ESPN+
11. Indiana State (0.87, 0.87) (0-9, 0-6)
Last Week: Lost Vs #22 Youngstown State 7-19
This surely isn’t the season Indiana State wanted, but I really respect and appreciate how they haven’t given up. They continue to make their opponents earn it and this week was no exception. The trees struck first late in the 1st quarter when Justin Dinka finally showed some flashes of his potential and broke a few tackles and housed a screen pass from 56 yards out. However, that was all the offense that Indiana State would show the rest of the day. That lone screen represented 11% of Cade Chambers completions and 45% of the yardage on the day. Chambers’ final stat line ended up being 9-24 for 152 and 1-1. Pretty brutal considering this Penguin secondary has really struggled at times.
Defensively the Sycamores should be commended for holding a very potent Youngstown offense to 19 points. They gave up 386 yards of total offense, but only allowed YSU in the end zone twice and forced 5 punts and 3 FG attempts (one of which was missed) in tightening up where it counted.
This Week: Vs Western Illinois (0-9, 0-6)
Model Prediction: -15, 84.62%
Broadcast: 12 PM CST Sat 11/11, ESPN+
10. Murray State (2.19, 1.19) (2-7, 1-6)
Last Week: Lost Vs #10 North Dakota (6-3, 4-2) 31-45
The Racers tried to get themselves back into this one but it was too little too late by the time they did. Despite playing down all of the 2nd and 3rd quarters by 2 or 3 scores at the start of the 4th they were able to cut the lead to one score, but unfortunately if you’re a MUSU would trade scores the rest of the way to go down by 14. Offensively the Racers had a respectable showing. Obviously they put up 31 points, but their total offense of 379 yards was not too shabby either.
However they did not play anything that even resembled defense in this one. They gave up 45 points and over 500 yards of total offense. The Fighting Hawks moved the ball up and down the field at will. The Racers only forced 1 punt and 1 FG attempt with 0 turnovers. When that is all you do to slow the other team down your offense quite literally has to play a perfect game. While the Racers offense was not horrible, perfect they were not.
This Week: @ Illinois State (4-4, 2-3)
Model Prediciton: +19, 8.05% WP
Broadcast: 11 AM CST Sat 11/11, Marquee Sports/ESPN+
9. Missouri State (3.38, 2.38) (3-6, 2-4)
Last Week: Lost Vs Illinois State (5-4, 3-3) 35-36
Well this one was boring and totally not controversial. (That’s sarcasm for anyone who didn’t watch) This game was back and forth all day. No team ever had more than a 7 point score and there were 4 lead changes. There wasn’t much defense played in this one as the Bears gave up 500 yards of total offense while racking up nearly 400 of their own. Jordan Pachot continued to play well going 24-34 for 290 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. Raylen Sharpe caught both of the TDs as part of his 7 total and went over 100 yards.
As far as the play(s) that decided the game we’ll come back to that in the Illinois State recap.
This Week: Vs #15 Northern Iowa (6-3, 5-1)
Model Prediction: +6, 35.09% WP
Broadcast: 2 PM CST Sat 11/11, MC-22/ESPN+
8. (-3) #11 Southern Illinois (7.23, 4.23) (6-3, 3-3)
Last Week: Lost Vs #6 South Dakota (7-2, 5-1) 7-14
What happened to the Southern Illinois offense? They did next to nothing all day until the 4th quarter. 6 of their drives ended in punts, 1 on a 4th down in plus territory, 1 missed field goal in the early 3rd Q, 1 score, and then the last drive. After going down 14-0 early towards the middle of the 4th quarter the Salukis finally mounted a drive for the first time since their opening possession that, as mentioned, stalled on a 4th down, and they scored on a 6 yard TD pass from Baker to Quinn. After a quick 3 and out from the Saluki Defense Baker went right back to work and drove the Salukis all the way down to the USD 5 for a 1st and goal. However with 4 plays from the 5 the Salukis could not punch it in, and in fact threw the ball on 3 of their 4 plays which was also a bit head scratching especially with Ro Elliot finally back in the lineup. The 4th and goal play from the two came up short when Baker’s pass was deflected and picked. There was a bit of a controversy on the 2nd down play whether it was caught or not, but the FJ ruled it was juggled and with no angle to overturn the call stood.
The inconsistency of this SIU offensive group is just so frustrating. Their defense is really starting to click and play good football. However, this offense is just so Jekyll and Hyde and they continue to let the D down.
This Week: @ #12 North Dakota State (6-3, 3-3)
Model Prediction: +8.5, 24.85%
Broadcast: 2:30 PM CST Sat 11/11, ABC (ND Only)/ESPN+
7. (+1) Illinois State (6.26, 4.26) (5-4, 3-3)
Last Week: Won @ Missouri State (3-6, 2-4) 36-35
The Redbirds narrowly escape Plaster Stadium in a back and forth game on a controversial call at the end. After Zack Annexstad took a huge shot while getting a 1st down to extend the Redbird go ahead drive back (with a controversial spot that go lost in what happened next) Tommy Rittenhouse handed off to Wenkers Wright who rumbled into the end zone to give the Redbirds a chance to either attempt a PAT for OT or go for 2 and the win. Brock Spack chose to go for 2 and his staff dialed up a perfect 2 point play that saw Rittenhouse hit a wide open Wright in the flat who took two steps with the ball and immediately dropped it and acted like he had just dropped the pass. However, upon review the replay official deemed that it had actual been a catch and the Redbirds had won just narrowly keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Annexstad was big on the day going 33-49 for 291 yards and a TD led by Daniel Sobkowicz who had 7 catches for 98 yards and a TD. On the ground Mason Blakemore had an impressive day leading the team with 125 yards on 25 carries and scoring twice. Defensively the Redbirds struggled on the back end giving up 290 passing yards.
This Week: Vs Murray State (2-7, 1-5)
Model Prediction: -19, 91.95% WP
Broadcast: 11 AM CST Sat 11/11, Marquee Sports/ESPN+
6. (+1) #12 North Dakota State (7.40, 4.40) (6-3, 3-3)
Last Week: Lost @ #1 South Dakota State (9-0, 6-0) 16-33
The Bison lost the Marker Game for the 4th straight time, and to their arch rival SDSU for the 5th straight meeting. The big culprits in this one were losing the turnover battle 3 to 0, not being able to push the ball down field (Miller had just 5.7 yd/att), poor clock management, and special teams miscues namely 2 blocked kicks. This was a real crossroads for the Bison in their season as they had to pick between still possibly even fighting for a seed and now they have to win out to even make the postseason. I feel like this is still a very good football team, but they need to start playing more consistently and in a hurry as they will end the year with 2 ranked opponents.
This Week: Vs # 11 Southern Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
Model Prediction: -8.5, 75.15% WP
Broadcast: 2:30 PM CST Sat 11/11, ABC (ND Only)/ESPN+
5. (+1) #22 Youngstown State (7.01, 5.01) (6-3, 4-2)
Last Week: Won @ Indiana State (0-9, 0-6) 19-7
The Penguins shook off a slow start and a game that was tied at 7s at the half to pull away in the back two frames. This was by far one of the better defensive showings for the penguins this year outside of their Southern Illinois game as they held the Sycamores to a mere 191 yards of total offense and 7 points that all came on one big explosive play. Offensively they moved the ball like they normally do (386 yards of total offense), but had an usual amount of drives stall out with 5 punts and a missed FG compared to their 4 scoring drives of which only 2 were TDs. Those efficiency numbers will have to get better as the late playoff push continues to press upon us here.
This Week: Vs #1 South Dakota State (9-0, 6-0)
Model Prediction: +17, 12.26% WP
Broadcast: 11 AM CST Sat 11/11, ESPN+
4. #10 North Dakota (7.10, 5.10) (6-3, 4-2)
Last Week: Won @ Murray State (2-7, 1-5) 45-31
The Fighting Hawks kind of let Murray State hang around in this one a little longer than they should have, but in the end they were able to put them away. Tommy Schuester had another impressive showing going 18-23 for 279 yards and 5 TDs which earned him MVFC offensive player of the week honors. Defensively the Hawks let Murray State well exceed their season averages both for yardage and points and should look to sure that up as we move forward.
This Week: @ #6 South Dakota (7-2, 5-1)
Model Prediction: +2.5, 44.27% WP
Broadcast: 12 PM CST Sat 11/11, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+
3. (-1) #15 Northern Iowa (7.00, 6.00) (6-3, 5-1)
Last Week: Won Vs Western Illinois 50-6
The Panthers used their chance at a tune up game against a Western Illinois team, who I’m sure is counting the days until they are out of the MVFC, well. They looked proficient in all aspects of the game and were able to get their 1s some extra rest for the homestretch ahead that may have them in outside contention for a seed.
This Week: @ Missouri State (3-6, 2-4)
Model Prediction: -6, 64.91% WP
Broadcast: 2 PM CST Sat 11/11, MC-22/ESPN+
2. (+1) #6 South Dakota (8.54, 6.54) (7-2, 5-1)
Last Week: Won @ #11 Southern Illinois (6-3, 3-3) 14-7
As talked about during the SIU wrap up this one was a dog fight. Both defenses stole the show but it was USD’s offense that managed to do just enough to get the win before their defense tied it up with a bow late. There wasn’t a ton of offense the Yotes put on display, but if there was one thing to be enthused by for USD fans it was the fact that they weren’t reliant on the big play on their scoring drives like they have been most of this year and sustained long drives for both scores.
Defensively while the Salukis outgained the Yotes 332-196 the Yotes were clutch when they had to be. On the backs of an early 4th down stop, and a late goal line stand they were able to prevail in this one. On 4th and goal as part of that stand Brendan Webb deflected the Nic Baker pass which led to it being intercepted. Webb’s total stat line was 4 sacks (single game school record) and the aforementioned pbu.
This Week : Vs #10 North Dakota (6-3, 4-2)
Model Prediction: -2.5, 55.73% WP
Broadcast: Broadcast: 11 AM CST Sat 11/11, ESPN+
1. #1 South Dakota State (10.84, 7.84) (9-0, 6-0)
Last Week: Won Vs #12 North Dakota State (6-3, 3-3) 33-16
The Jacks weathered the early Bison storm and off the back of 3 Bison turnovers cruised the rest of the way. Hunter Dustman went 4/4 on FGs which earned him MVFC ST player of the week for the second week in a row. There were definitely a few things for the Jacks to work on out of this one, namely finishing drives offensively and tackling on the defense but overall it’s hard to complain about beating your arch rival.
This Week: @ #22 Youngstown State (6-3, 3-3)
Model Prediction: -17, 87.74% WP
Broadcast: Broadcast: 11 AM CST Sat 11/11, ESPN+
Game Previews
Western Illinois (0-9, 0-6) at Indiana State (0-9, 0-6)
Model Line: Ind St -15
Broadcast: 12 PM CST Sat 11/11, ESPN+
Here we are. There was a chance when Murray State joined the conference it wouldn’t come to this, but earlier in the year they minorly upset the Sycamores it seemed to set destiny in motion once again. Despite Indiana State playing some other teams tight we’ve finally arrived here. For the second year in a row these two teams will play each other to decide who has at least one good day this year and who likely ends up winless. Much like last year it is looking like Indiana State will be the one to finally put one in the left hand column on Saturday. Despite their results Indiana State continues to play hard taking #10 North Dakota to overtime and forcing #6 South Dakota and #22 Youngstown State to play 4 quarter games against them. Across them Saturday will be a Leathernecks team that seems to have completely given up and just gets shelled worse with every passing week. Both teams might be winless, but there’s levels to this and I think that changes for Indiana State on Saturday.
Murray State (2-7, 1-5) @ Illinois State (5-4, 3-3)
Model Line: Ill St -19
Broadcast: 11 AM CST Sat 11/11, Marquee Sports/ESPN+
Illinois State is trying to cling to what very slim playoff hopes they have left, but they’re going to have to do it without veteran and star QB Zack Annexstad on Saturday. While Murray State is certainly not a powerhouse they have continued to show some chin this year, in fact much more so than a lot of other people, myself included, thought they would. The computers also do not know that Annexstad will be unavailable when predicting this one.
With all that said I still think the Redbirds will emerge victorious in this one. While I think it will definitely be closer than the projections I just don’t see a Brock Spack led team playing for as much as they potentially are losing to this caliber of Murray State team. Redbirds win but Racers keep it to a respectable one to two scores.
#11 Southern Illinois (6-3, 3-3) at #12 North Dakota State (6-3, 3-3)
Model Line: NDSU -8.5
Broadcast: 2:30 PM CST Sat 11/11, ABC (ND Only)/ESPN+
Big game in Fargo this weekend with enormous playoff implications. NDSU probably needs to win at least 1 of their last 2 both against ranked opponents to even make the playoffs. SIU while a lock given their if they can win one more (they play the Sycamores at home week 12 so that seems like a safe bet) they took a huge hit to their first round bye hopes when they lost last week. However, a win over the fabled Bison could be just what they would need to claw back into that discussion.
As far as the actual preview of the game I think this are pretty similar caliber teams, but NDSU is just far more balanced especially as of late. NDSU is averaging 35 oppg and 19.7 dppg. On the flip side SIU is averaging 25.8 oppg and 16.3 dppg, but if you look at their last 3 games against ranked teams their oppg drops to 6.7. Their offense simply has not shown up against a quality opponent since mid September. And for that reason and that reason alone I will take the Bison in this one. They didn’t play quite as bad as the score might indicate last week and on senior day in front of what will hopefully be an energized crowd NDSU should take care of business.
#18 Northern Iowa (6-3, 5-1) @ Missouri State (3-6, 2-4)
Model Line: UNI -6
Broadcast: 2 PM CST Sat 11/11, MC-22/ESPN+
This one will once again be another one of those sneakily good games featuring Missouri State. If Missouri State is going to make a game of it much like others this year they will have to turn it into a bit of a shootout as their defense continues to play poorly. However the way UNI has looked defensively at times on the back end may allow the very good passing attack led by Jordan Pachot to do just that. I think the Panthers keep on their hot streak, but the Bears will keep it closer than what most would probably give them credit for.
#10 North Dakota (6-3, 4-2) at #6 South Dakota (7-2, 5-1) *ALEX’S GAME OF THE WEEK*
Model Line: USD -2.5
Broadcast: Broadcast: 11 AM CST Sat 11/11, ESPN+
My feelings for one of the programs involved aside this is the exact type of game that makes you love the FCS regular season. A big rivalry game with what is a very tight projected spread (Vegas has this one at 2.5 as well for reference only) with huge consequences for what the playoff bracket could look like in 2 weeks from now. This is also a bit of a matchup of opposing styles as USD leans heavily on their standout bend but don’t break defense while playing an opportunistic ball control offense. On the other side UND will try to play just enough defense to slow you down and force a few mistakes then turn around and put up tons of points and offensive pressure on nearly every drive with their high flying offense. For those reasons I think I have to lean Yotes on this one. Other good defenses like SDSU, Boise State, and even a modest UNI defense have been able to slow the Fighting Hawks attack. Whereas on the other side USD’s defense has shown out against everyone except SDSU, YSU, and Missouri 3 very stout offenses and they have held a respectable NDSU offense to just 19. I think in this one the Yote D limits Schuster and co to right around 20 points and the USD offense is able to take advantage of a few plays at the right moment to score just enough to get them the win.
#1 South Dakota State (9-0, 6-0) at #22 Youngstown State (6-3, 3-3)
Model Line: SDSU -17
Broadcast: Broadcast: 11 AM CST Sat 11/11, ESPN+
Abbreviated preview as always with all our other Jacks content on the blog and pods. The key will be the #1 defense in the country of SDSU keeping the #3 offense of YSU in check while being able to maintain enough balance offensively that they can really pick apart the weak secondary YSU has had at times this year.
Playoff race is really heating up and the MVFC by far has the games with the biggest implications this week. There should be some good and exciting football on Saturday.
Go Jacks!
Alex
