Although the MVFC could potentially (and dumbly) recognize a co-champion this year with a Jacks loss and a USD win for our purposes of tracking the autobid it is all over. The Jackrabbits for the 3rd time in the last 4 years will represent the MVFC in the FCS playoffs as the AQ champion by virtue of their win over Youngstown State Saturday.
With that put out there this is the Valley so we still have the potential for several at large bids and some big implications of such in almost every game remaining. Let’s look at last week and then get into those games.
12. Western Illinois (0.02, 0.02) (0-10, 0-7 actual)
Last Week: Loss @ Indiana State (1-9, 1-6) 6-27
23. This was Western’s best chance to win this year and they couldn’t capitalize. They struck first and then went into hiding for the remainder of the day. I don’t want to use blanket statements or speak for the whole team but this performance really proved to me they’re checked out. One more game and the ‘Necks can start their OVC plans.
This Week: @ Vs #5 South Dakota (8-2, 6-1)
Model Prediction: +28.5, 2.31% WP
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, ESPN+/KELOXTRA
11. Indiana State (1.03, 1.03) (1-9, 1-6)
Last Week: Won Vs Western Illinois (0-10, 0-7) 27-6
It has been a long year for the Sycamores, but they finally got to hang one in the win column on Saturday. They continued to play stout defense like they have the last few weeks with LB Garret Ollendieck earning MVFC defensive player of the week for his part. Ollendieck had a crazy 3 sack performance to bring his season total to 7, and also led the team in tackles Saturday with 11. On the other side of the ball we finally saw the Justin Dinka I have been expecting to show up all season. Dinka went for 147 yds and 2 scores on the ground on his 19 carries and added an additional 22 scrimmage yards on a long reception. I know this hasn’t been the year Indiana State hoped for, but finally getting the monkey off your back had to feel good regardless of who the opponent was.
This Week: @ #16 Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-4)
Model Prediction: +23, 2.68%
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, ESPN+
10. Murray State (2.11, 1.11) (2-8, 1-7)
Last Week: Lost @ Illinois State (6-4, 4-3) 7-44
After showing some chin the last few weeks the Racers appeared to crumple over in this one. Their run defense may have been nothing more than a series of traffic cones as they gave up 345 on the ground to the Redbirds, and what makes it worse is that they had to know it was coming as Illinois State was down to their second QB. Offensively DJ Williams threw 3 picks making an uphill battle worse. The lone individual performance worth highlighting was RB Jawaun Northington who ran for 96 yards and a TD on 20 carries. It has certainly been trial by fire for the Racers in their first Valley season, and they will have one more tough test this upcoming Saturday.
This Week: Vs #25 Youngstown State (6-4, 4-3)
Model Prediciton: +18, 10.6%
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, ESPN+
9. Missouri State (4.02, 3.02) (4-6, 3-4)
Last Week: Won Vs #22 Northern Iowa (6-4, 5-2) 35-16
The Bears are another one of those teams that hasn’t had the season they’d hoped but still haven’t given up, and they were rewarded for it Saturday. It was a total team win as Missouri State showed up the Panthers in all 3 phases of the game and it was never really even that close. Jordan Pachot continued his quietly impressive season going 27/35 for 326 yds, 4 TDs and 1 INT. And although not the most impressive, by Missouri State standards it was a nice showing on the ground as the team combined for 27 rush att for 127 gross yards and a TD on the ground. Like I said, not world beater numbers but it’s much more balanced than what the Bears had been to this point thus far this season.
Defensively this was also one of the more stout Missouri State performances this season. They held the Panther to 16 points and 299 total yards of offense picking off Theo Day twice along the way. It was a good day for the Bears as a big win like this can be the difference in a season like this being a turning point for a program or just another lost season.
This Week: @ #1 South Dakota State (10-0, 7-0)
Model Prediction: +28, 29.4% WP
Broadcast: 2 PM CST Sat 11/18, MidcoSN/Midco+/ESPN+
8. #16 Southern Illinois (6.97, 3.97) (6-4, 3-4)
Last Week: Lost @ #9 North Dakota State (7-3, 4-3) 10-34
The Southern Illinois offense continues to be nowhere to be seen or heard. They kept it close in the first half heading into the break down just 3, 10-13 but then seemingly forgot to come out of the locker room for the continuation of the game. The Salukis put up a dismal 216 yards of total offense and an even more pathetic 55 net yards rushing when accounting for the 4 sacks their offensive line gave up. Defensively they were wore down and after a while had no answer for the Bison attack. This is still a team that likely controls their own destiny for the playoffs, but one has to start to wonder how much of a threat they’ll actually be once they get there especially if Nic Baker has to miss any time.
This Week: Vs Indiana State (1-9, 1-6)
Model Prediction: -23, 97.32%
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, ESPN+
7. Illinois State (6.38, 4.38) (6-4, 4-3)
Last Week: Won Vs Murray State (2-8, 1-6) 44-7
The Redbirds playoff hopes are still on life support after their dismantling of Murray State on Saturday. The Redbirds knew that without star QB Zack Annexstad they were going to have to lean on their rushing attack and boy did they. Mason Blakemore as he has many a time this season led the charge amassing an astounding 169 yards and 3 TDs on 19 carries, and The Redbirds as a team went for 345 on 45 attempts scoring ⅚ TDs on the ground. All this not to say back up QB Tommy Rittenhouse played poorly, but rather he was fairly efficient in doing what was asked of him going 14/23 for 165 yards and a TD.
Defensively Illinois State came to play as well. They held the Racers to 7 points and just 245 yards of total offense spurred along by 3 INTs. It may be a little too late, but the Redbirds are starting to play some of their best football. They’ll need to in their big match up with a ranked North Dakota team this week as to even have the slightest consideration for an at large playoff berth they will have to pull out the win.
This Week: @ #13 North Dakota (6-4, 4-3)
Model Prediction: +4.5, 38.08% WP
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
6. (-2) #13 North Dakota (6.62, 4.62) (6-4, 4-3)
Last Week: Lost @ #5 South Dakota (8-2, 5-1) 10-14
North Dakota’s defense played the best game they have in quite some time and their offense returned the favor by scoring 3 points (7 of their 10 came on the opening kickoff) and only putting up 211 total yards of offense. The USD defense is one of the best in the nation, but so is the UND offense supposedly and it just didn’t translate on Saturday. Tommy Schuster just couldn’t get anything going having a poor showing at 17/25 with no TDs and 1 INT. As a back field group they only gained 94 net yards on 28 carries.
As stated, defensively they actually had a very sound performance. In addition to only giving up 14 points they forced 2 turnovers, and held what is supposed to be a rush first Yote offense to just 84 net rushing yards on 30 carries. They did give up quite a bit of yardage through the air at 332, but as stated they did pick off Bouman once (should’ve probably been twice as Bouman threw it right to one of their safeties early 4th Q and he dropped it) and had one of the best hustle plays you’ll ever see where LB Wyatt Pedigo chased Carter Bell down from 20 yards back to force a fumble just before Bell scored and also recover it in the end zone. The lone critique would be that on what ended up being the game winning drive the Hawks had the Yotes in 2nd and 30 plus and gave up chunk plays both times to let them make it 3rd and manageable which they converted.
UND has flashed this year, but have looked entirely listless the last 4 weeks or so. If they can win on senior day Saturday they are likely in the playoffs, but without out much identity right now it is hard to see them going very far.
This Week: Vs Illinois State (6-4, 4-3)
Model Prediction: -4.5, 61.92% WP
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
5. (+1) #9 North Dakota State (7.71, 4.71) (7-3, 4-3)
Last Week: Won Vs #16 Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-4) 34-10
This looked like what we are accustomed to from a Bison team. Could getting slapped around in the Marker Game have been a wake up call they needed? They hung right with the Salukis in the first half and imposed their will in the second. Cam Miller had another good day both in the air and on the ground combining for 280 all purpose yards, and the Bison combined as a team for 217 rushing yards on 45 attempts. Still no breakout back, but I think at this point in the year it is clear that they are just going to be a RB by committee team.
Defensively this was easily the best performance NDSU has put on in the conference slate if not all year. They held a good Southern Illinois team to 10 points and just 211 yards while sacking Baker 4 times and picking his back up once. If the Bison can play complimentary football like this down the stretch here they just may have a shot at doing what we are accustomed to them doing in December.
This Week: @ #22 Northern Iowa (6-4, 5-2)
Model Prediction: -7.5, 70.56% WP
Broadcast: 4 PM CST Sat 11/18, PSN TV/CFU Channel 15/KCRG 9.2/Marquee/ESPN+
4. (+1) #25 Youngstown State (6.89, 4.89) (6-4, 4-3)
Last Week: Lost Vs #1 South Dakota State (10-0, 7-0)
This was not the showing the Guins wanted or needed in this one. In order to feel good about their footing in the playoff standings they needed to find a way to pull off the upset in this one and instead they got boat raced. Their secondary continued to be a liability giving up 324 yards through the air and 3 TDs. Offensively their explosive attack was kept off the board entirely, hanging up a goose egg on the board and only gaining 207 yards of total offense. Youngstown will ultimately have to try to find a way to bounce back this week if they want to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive, but this one might sting a while. Especially if they miss out on the postseason.
This Week: @ Murray State (2-8, 1-6)
Model Prediction: -18, 89.4% WP
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, ESPN+
3. #22 Northern Iowa (6.29, 5.29) (6-4, 5-2)
Last Week: Lost @ Missouri State (4-6, 3-4) 16-35
Just when everyone was starting to buy high on UNI they went and did the most UNI thing possible, losing a game to a markedly less talented team than themselves, and putting them in a very difficult position to attempt to back door their way into the playoffs when they probably would’ve been in with a win. It was a complete and total failure all around as the offense only mustered 16 points on 299 yards of offense and Theo Day threw 2 picks. The lone bright spot was WR Sam Schnee hauling in 3 passes for 98 yards and a TD.
The defensive effort was not much better as some of the issues it looked like they had shored up in their secondary started to poke their heads in again. They gave up 326 yards through the air and 4 scores. The front 4 however did continue to play well as they got Pachot on the ground 3 times for sacks and only gave up 101 net rushing yards.
The good news for the Panthers is that they very much control their own destiny. Unfortunately for them this should’ve been a much easier game to win than their upcoming matchup against North Dakota State.
This Week: Vs #9 North Dakota State (7-3, 4-3)
Model Prediction: +7.5, 29.44% WP
Broadcast: 4 PM CST Sat 11/18, PSN TV/CFU Channel 15/KCRG 9.2/Marquee/ESPN+
2. #5 South Dakota (8.98, 6.98) (8-2, 6-1)
Last Week: Won Vs #13 North Dakota (6-4, 4-3) 14-10
It wasn’t flashy but the Yotes got their 8th win and should be all but guaranteed a playoff berth. Their defense continues to be outstanding, only giving up 3 points and 211 yards in this one. However, I don’t think it is unfair to be starting to ask some questions about their offense. They are only averaging 12 oppg in their last 4 games including a meager 14 Saturday, and are a very bleh 21 oppg and change on the year. Aidan Bouman actually played a fairly nice game going 20/28 for 307 yards, but turnovers killed their chances. Bouman threw one pick, got lucky when a UND DB dropped another, and Carter Bell was stripped going into the end zone. A big win USD should be proud of on Saturday, absolutely. But I do not think asking questions about what will happen to them when they come up on another team with a really good defense in the playoffs are unwarranted at this point.
This Week : @ Western Illinois (0-10, 0-7)
Model Prediction: -28.5, 97.69% WP
Broadcast: 1 PM CST, Sat 11/18, ESPN+/KELOXTRA
1. #1 South Dakota State (10.97, 7.97) (9-0, 6-0)
Last Week: Won @ #25 Youngstown State (6-4, 4-3) 34-0
“Leave No Doubt” that’s the moniker Youngstown State has picked for their season, but instead it was the other team leaving no doubt as to who is the #1 team in the nation. Mark Gronowski had one of his best games of the season and maybe even his career going 19/28 for 295 yards and 3 scores while Isaiah Davis continued to do his thing leading the rushing attack with 130 yards and a score on 19 carries. Defensively the Jackrabbit D pitched a shout out and held YSU to just 207 yards of total offense. The Jacks have now played a ranked opponent in 70% of their games this year and they have walked away from all of them as the victor.
This Week: Vs Missouri State (4-6, 3-4)
Model Prediction: -28, 97.06% WP
Broadcast: Broadcast: 2 PM CST, Sat 11/18, MidcoSN/Midco+/ESPN+
Game Previews
Indiana State (1-9, 1-6) at Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-4)
Model Line: SIU -23
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, ESPN+
This is a game between an Indiana State team coming off their first win of the season and a Southern Illinois team reeling off two straight losses, however, likely still playing for a win and you’re in scenario. I won’t be surprised if this is closer than what is projected. Indiana State despite their record has been playing with some swagger especially defensively, and SIU has really struggled on offense. I think the Salukis will ultimately get it done and punch their post season ticket, but it will be an ugly game. However as much as I don’t trust the Saluki offense right now I probably trust the Sycamore offense less. The Salukis will win by 1-2 scores in a game without much total offense.
Illinois State (6-4, 4-3) at #13 North Dakota (6-4, 4-3)
Model Line: UND -4.5
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
This will be one of the games from the MVFC to keep tabs on this weekend. UND is likely in a win and in scenario whereas Illinois State is not completely out, but likely will need a little help elsewhere around the FCS even with a win. This is an interesting matchup especially if the Redbirds are without Zack Annexstad as UND is better on offense, but Ill St is better defensively. With that said something else to consider is UND’s home vs away splits and how good their defense looked last week. I think this will be a game, much like the Fighting Hawks vs Bison game, be one where the Fighting Hawks putting their best on display. I think UND punches their playoff ticket in this one, but the Redbirds give them a fight.
#25 Youngstown State (6-4, 4-3) at Murray State (2-8, 1-6)
Model Line: YSU -18
Broadcast: 1 PM CST Sat 11/18, ESPN+
Youngstown has to win this one to even have a shot at being considered for the postseason. Murray State is looking to go out on a high note. Murray State has given up a lot of points and yards this year, and with the exception of last week Youngstown has put up a lot. I look for the Penguins to head down to Kentucky and handle their business this week. However, if they want a spot in the bracket they are going to need some help everywhere else around the country.
#9 North Dakota State (7-3, 4-3) at #22 Northern Iowa (6-4, 5-2) *ALEX’S GAME OF THE WEEK*
Model Line: NDSU -7.5
Broadcast: 4 PM CST Sat 11/18, PSN TV/CFU Channel 15/KCRG 9.2/Marquee/ESPN+
This game is the big one for me this week and it has the most on the line. If the Panthers win they are in the playoffs. If the Bison win they still have a shot at earning a first round bye. Both teams have offenses that can put up a lot of points and secondaries that have been suspect at times this year. It is cliche but this game comes down to the play of Cam Miller (NDSU) and Theo Day(UNI). Miller for his part might just be having his best season to date and continues to play well week in and week out. Day on the other hand has been consistently up and down all year.
If this game is played 100 times much like the numbers say I think the Bison win 70 of them. But I just have a feeling on this one that the Panthers can do what they need to. Theo Day will have a big day and lead the Panthers to a victory in a shootout. It is senior day in the UNIDome, the Panthers will have their walls against their backs, and
NDSU has not been great on the road this year. I know we try to be more number based around here, but the intangibles are too strong for me in this one to go against UNI.
#5 South Dakota (8-2, 6-1) at Western Illinois (0-10, 0-7)
Model Line: USD -28.5
Broadcast: 1 PM CST, Sat 11/18, ESPN+/KELOXTRA
USD caps their historic season by handing WIU a historic 23rd straight loss.
Missouri State (4-6, 3-4) at #1 South Dakota State (10-0, 7-0)
Model Line: SDSU -28
Broadcast: 2 PM CST Sat 11/18, Midco/Midco+/ESPN+
Senior Day at the Dana J. I think the boys go off into the postseason in style at the expense of the Bears. I think Missouri State is definitely better than their record, but I don’t think they have the defense or fire power to hang in this one.
Some point post Frisco I will put together a year in review for most teams, but for now thanks for following along this season. I will probably post the numbers every week for the playoffs, but don’t know that I feel knowledgeable enough to speak outside the conference without a massive research time sink especially with holidays and travel next week.
Go Jacks!
Alex
