They’re starting to drop like flies. As we lost 3 teams last week (UND, Ill State, and YSU). And while still technically alive Indiana State is all but guaranteed to be eliminated after this week. It is beginning to look like with Missouri State ineligible the MVFC just might be a 3 bid league this year, and if it is more it’ll be 4 as I don’t see both UND and Ill State getting in barring something spectacular.
Clinch: None
Elimination:
ISUb: Loss or Missouri State Win (99.99%)
- Murray State (1-8, 0-6) (0.183 conf wins)
Last week: Loss 52-6 Vs #3 South Dakota State (7-2, 4-1)
I actually thought there were times early on that the Racers moved the ball well in this one, and even forced a 3 and out defensively on the 3rd series of the game. However, after the brutal schedule the Racers have had it is just very obvious they don’t have the skill, and definitely not the depth to compete at this level just yet. I do hope Coach Jody Wright gets a chance to attempt to build the program as he does seem to have a good vision, but it is definitely going to take some time.
This Week: (+21.85, 6.33%) Vs Missouri State (7-2, 5-0) 1PM Sat, ESPN+
See Missouri State for preview.
- (-1) Southern Illinois (2-7, 0-5) (1.482)
Last Week: Lost 38-17 Vs Missouri State (7-2, 5-0)
This game was actually a bit closer than the scoreboard showed, and the Saluki defense actually did fairly well to limit an explosive Missouri State offense to just 357 yards. Unfortunately what did them in on Saturday was the 3 picks their QB rotation combined to throw. The absence of DJ Williams continues to loom large, and at this point it is starting to feel like the Salukis are just trying to get to next season.
This Week: (-1.96, 57.20%) Vs Youngstown State (3-7, 2-4), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
See Youngstown State.
- (+1) Northern Iowa (2-7, 0-5) (1.514)
Last Week: 42-19 Loss At #1 North Dakota State (9-1, 6-0)
Actually not all doom and gloom in this one for the Panthers. They moved the ball pretty well putting up a total offense figure in the mid 300s. However, turnovers and inefficiencies on money downs (3/12 on third) ultimately did them in. When you play the top team you have to be mistake free to overcome the talent gap, and the Panthers were not.
This Week: (+3.96, 41.57%) VS #18 Illinois State (6-3, 3-2), 1 PM Sat, ESPN+/PSN-TV/CFU Ch 15/Marquee Sports
See Illinois State.
- (-2) #21 North Dakota (5-4, 2-3) (3.030)
Last Week: 35-31 Loss At Indiana State (4-5, 3-2)
It was a bit of a meme with some truth behind it before, but now it has just gone to new heights this season. This was not just a poor performance on the road by the Hawks, but they got straight up out played by Indiana State. They got taken into the deep end of the pool and brought under by the freaking Larry Birds. Isaiah Smith had a nice game carrying the call 11 times for just over 100 yards and a score, but that is really all there is to positively note in this one.
This Week: (+14.61, 14.61%) Vs #3 South Dakota State (7-2, 4-1), 1 PM Sat, ESPN+/Midco SN
See SDSU.
- Youngstown State (3-7, 2-4) (3.057)
Last Week: 23-16 Loss At #18 Illinois State (6-3, 3-2)
The Penguins were never a serious threat to win this one, however, it was also never completely out of their reach. Although a win is what you would like to see a gritty performance against a ranked opponent is nothing to sneeze at, especially when the defense did a decent job bearing their weight when that has not always been the case to this point this season. Max Tomczak was the standout on the day for YSU grabbing 8 balls for 73 yds and a score.
This Week: (+1.96, 42.80%), At Southern Illinois (2-7, 0-5), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
Although the model predicts a close one here, I don’t know that I think it will be. Southern Illinois is banged up, and continues to look like they may be checked out on the season, meanwhile in their last 3 games Youngstown continues to show some fight even against some high quality opponents. I do think that it may be a low scoring afair, but ultimately I like the Penguins in this one.
- (+2) Indiana State (4-5, 3-2) (3.529)
Last Week: Won 35-31 Vs #21 North Dakota (5-4, 2-3)
Big win for the Sycamores this week. Upsetting a ranked team in front of a home crowd, (even if it is a team that constantly under performs on the road) is huge for a program. Not just that but Indiana State outperformed UND in almost every key metric, yards per play, total offense, and 3rd down efficiency. Although there were no individual performances that lept off the page this was a sound team performance by Indiana State.
This week: (+29.67, 0.07%) At #5 South Dakota (6-2, 4-1), 1 PM Sat, ESPN+/MidcoSN
See USD.
- #18 Illinois State (6-3, 3-2) (4.772)
Last Week: Won 23-16 Vs Youngstown State (3-7, 2-4)
This one was a bit clunky and ugly for the Redbrds, but they got a win in this one to keep their playoff hopes rolling. Going back through some of the highlights I do think Tommy Rittenhouse had a solid game even if the numbers don’t jump off the page when looking at the box scores and stat lines. Like I said, as long as Illinois State keeps winning I think their playoff hopes will stay afloat, but they are going to have to start pulling away from some of this lesser competition if they are getting anywhere once the tournament starts.
This Week: (-3.96, 58.43%), At Northern Iowa (2-7, 0-5), 1 PM Sat, ESPN+/PSN-TV/CFU Ch 15/Marquee Sports
The Redbirds will travel to the always tough environment of the UNIDome on Saturday. This will be a chance for Illinois State to show that they are considerably better than the middle of the pack by winning this one comfortably. On the flip side of that Northern Iowa is still looking for their first MVFC win on the season. If you know anything about UNI football it is that they are a dangerous team when their backs are up against the wall.
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- (-1) #5 South Dakota (6-2, 4-1) (6.061)
Last Week: Bye
This Week: (-29.67, 99.93%) Vs Indiana State (4-5, 3-2), 1 PM Sat, ESPN+/MidcoSN
Indiana State has caught a little bit of fire lately, but they are going to have to travel to Vermillion to keep it going against a team that is going to be eager to get the taste of an OT loss in a rivalry game the last time they were on the field out of their mouths. Yotes likely roll in this one, but anything can happen.
- (+1) Missouri State (6.265)
Last Week: Won 38-17 Vs Southern Illinois (2-7, 0-5)
Missouri State handled business in this one, but I am still a bit suspect of their defense for the long haul especially with their two big tests to end the season. The Bears allowed the Salukis to rush for 237 yards in this one, which I would have to believe is near a season high for the Salukis. The Bears were really humming for a few weeks, but their one dimensional tendencies are starting to creep back to the surface.
This Week: (-21.85, 93.67%) At Murray State (1-8, 0-5), 1 PM Sat, ESPN+
Murray State will continue their brutal schedule this year by getting to play the highest ranked team in the Valley standings they haven’t played yet this year after coming off the top 2 back to back. That should mean this is an ample opportunity for the Bears to put another complete performance together before they head towards their big 2 showdowns to end the year.
- #3 South Dakota State (7-2, 4-1) (6.618)
Last Week: Won 52-6 Vs Murray State (1-8, 0-5)
Good complete performance from the Jacks in this one. They definitely have some little things that need to be cleaned up in this one, but it’s hard to complain about an affair as one-sided as this.
This Week: (-14.61, 85.39%) At #21 North Dakota (5-4, 2-3), 1 PM Sat, ESPN+/MidcoSN
The Jacks will head to the Alerus Center to play UND where they are hardest to take down, at home. The Jacks are one of only 2 teams that have beat the Hawks in the Alerus since UND moved to the MVFC. If they are going to do it again Saturday I think it will largely depend on the rush defense against a talented and potent UND attack. If you have watched any Jackrabbit football the last few years, you’d have to feel pretty good about that.
- #1 North Dakota State (9-1, 5-0) (7.489)
Last Week: Won 42-19 Vs Northern Iowa (2-7, 0-5)
Another game against a lesser opponent for the Bison before they head into their bye and a huge 2 game swing to end their season. The Bison were sharp in this one and had most of the starters out early on in the second half.
GO JACKS!
ALEX
