Some rare early season movement as the computers really liked UND’s “good loss” in Manhattan. Other than that some are trending but no other passes yet. One other point of clarification/small change as
we go forward here. A lot has been made about polls this week, and going forward I will reference the Redshirt Sports poll. In part to help promote, because Brendan and I vote in it, but also in truth I feel it is currently the best poll. Not only does James publicize everyone’s vote, but he’s done a good job of assembling people that follow the subdivision. Now to the games.
- Murray State (0-1, 0-0) (0.856 conf wins)
Last week: Lost 17-45 At RV ETSU (1-0)
To the shock of few the Racers were never really in this one effectively trailing by 14 or more the entire game. The main bright spot was QB Jim Ogle who my all means had a respectable debut as the full time starter. The RS-So went 22-35 for 226 yd, 1 TD, and 2 INT.
This Week: (+8.71, 27.44%) Vs SE Louisiana (0-1), 6 PM Sat, ESPN+
Another formidable foe awaits Murray State in their home opener in the form of the Southland’s SELA. A storyline for Jacks fans specifically to watch is former Sac State and USD Carson Camp (yes that Carson Camp). Isn’t currently in an in season QB battle with FBS transfer Kyle Lowe. Camp got most of the snaps last week, but neither player was overly impressive against FBS Louisiana Tech.
This game is one theoretically the Racers should compete in, but SLU has been a solid program for 5-6 years now, and I see them winning by a couple scores personally.
- Indiana State (1-0, 0-0) (1.41)
Last Week: Won 41-24 Vs (D2) McKendree (0-1)
Indiana State got the job done, but they let a very meh D2 team hang around far too long only going into intermission up by 1. However they turned it on and went on a 21-0 run in the 3rd Q. QB Elijah Owens was impressive as always and RB Lawrence Plez led the team in both rushing and receiving.
A few early red flags from the trees if they are intentional about carrying on their sustained success from last season. First off, having to run your QB 20 plus times against a D2 opponent is less than ideal. Secondly, having your top RB also be your top WR is also less than ideal even if a majority of those yards came off of a 75 yard screen. Take that out and he was still #4.
This Week: (-2.915, 58.60%) Vs Eastern Illinois (1-0), Sat 12 PM, ESPN+
In one of Indiana State’s biggest rivalry games, and probably their biggest left in the FCS the Trees will look to stake their claim. If they are going to do so the Indiana State defense will have to come to play. Last week the one-two punch for Eastern Illinois of QB Cole LaCrue and RB Charles Kellom combined for almost 350 rushing yards. I think this one has the potential to be a shootout.
- Northern Iowa (1-0, 0-0) (3.02)
Last Week: Won 38-14 Vs Butler (0-1)
This one may have had the Panther faithful sweating at halftime as the Panthers went into the break up a lowly 3 points. However, they outscored the Bulldogs 21-0 in the second half. It is always good to get a win on the opening week, but I’m not sure if this game said more about how far UNI had fallen, or if they just started slow.
This Week: (+14.89, 13.51%) At Wyoming (FBS) (1-0), 3 PM Sat, Mountain West Network
This week the Panthers will head to Larramie to face the Cowboys of Wyoming. Wyoming is pretty rough this year, but I still think UNI has too many growing pains to really be able to compete against an FBS foe at this juncture.
- RV Youngstown State (1-0, 0-0) (3.22)
Last Week: Won 24-15 Vs Mercyhurst (0-1)
I don’t want to be alarmist, but this should be setting off some alarm bells in Youngstown. Beau Brungard was a very pedestrian 5.4 yd/att through the air and their rushing attack was so anemic he was also forced to tote the ball almost 30 times and be their leading rusher. Youngstown backs only had 12 combined carries for an abysmal 35 yards. That style of offense is going to be a problem if it is anything more than a blip.
This Week: (-15.92, 87.56%) Vs Robert Morris (0-1), 1 PM, Sat ESPN+
The good news for the Penguins is they play another weak NEC foe this week in the form of Robert Morris. It is hard to gauge what Robert Morris is at this point as their lone game was a schlacking at the hands of an A4 opponent in West Virginia, but this is one the Penguins need to get their feet back under them.
- #7 Illinois State (0-1, 0-0) (3.737)
Last Week: Lost 3-35 At #18 (FBS) Oklahoma
This was a pretty rough showing, but to be fair it was against a ranked SEC opponent. The lone bright spot for me was that I thought Wenkers Wright had a quietly respectable day going for 50 yards on 7 carries. Another note is Tommy Rittenhouse did leave this game, but is expected to play this week.
This Week: (-26.93, 97.30%) Vs Morehead State (1-0), 6 PM Sat, ESPN+/Varsity Sports Network
The Redbirds will get to be on the other side this week as they welcome Morehead State into town. Mason King who missed all of last season should finally be cleared this week per Brock Spack, but I expect them to have him on a pitch count. I am curious to see at what level Tommy Rittenhouse is available, and how they use him. Those will be the big storylines for me.
- (-1) #14 Southern Illinois (1-0, 0-0) (4.384)
Last Week: Won 49-3 Vs Thomas More (D2)
Not much to say or discuss here. The Salukis did what they were supposed to and smacked around a D2 opponent in their home opener.
This week: (+14.32, 14.89%) At (FBS) Purdue (1-0), 6:30 PM Sat, Big Ten Network
The Boilermakers are on upset watch in this one. The Salukis have pulled off the FBS upsets recently in 2023 (NIU), 2022 (Northwestern), 2019 (UMass), and a close loss to Kansas State in 2021. This is a team and a program that does not shy away from these moments, and Purdue just might be one of the weakest A4 programs.
- (+1) #16 North Dakota (0-1, 0-0) (4.495)
Last Week: Lost 35-38 At (FBS) Kansas State (1-1)
The F’in Hawks were a few bounces of the ball away from Eric Schmidt getting a huge first win as a head coach against a ranked FBS opponent to boot. It also appeared abundantly clear the correct choice was made in going with Jerry Kaminski over Simon Romfro as the starting QB. Kaminski appeared to really unlock their offense and was really impressive. There were not a lot of other breakout players, but the team looked sound and played together well.
This Week: (-17.99, 89.09%), Vs Portland State (0-2), 6 PM Sat, ESPN+/MidcoSN
This is going to be a bloodbath. Portland State had yet to score a point through 2 games, and UND will be looking to further put their team on the map.
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- #5 South Dakota (0-1, 0-0) (5.038)
Last Week: Lost 7-55 At #16 (FBS) Iowa State (2-0)
This one had some good back and forth for about a quarter, but then a rare Aidan Bouman mistake on a pick blew it wide open. Iowa State would use that to take the momentum and finish on a 48-0 run. This is a top 20 FBS team the Yotes played so I am holding my water in terms of overreacting too far, but I do feel like their defense, primarily the secondary and how it develops going forward is something that has to be watched at this point.
This Week: (-18.16, 90.83%) At Lamar (0-1), 6 PM Sat, ESPN+
Good bounce back opportunity for the Yotes here against a very average Southland team. Once again, I’m going to keep a pretty close eye on their defense. This needs to be a statement game from that group. I feel like the offense will rebound just fine.
- #1 North Dakota State (1-0, 0-0) (6.772)
Last Week: Won 38-0 At The Citadel (0-1)
Much to the chagrin of my favorite radio host the Bison hammered the cadets of The Citadel military academy of South Carolina. This was about the performance you would want to expect if you were an NDSU fan.
This Week: (-27.375, 98.42%) At Tennessee State (1-0), 1:30 PM Sat, ESPN+
NDSU will round out a rare road stand to start the season in Nashville. However, all the pieces that made Tennessee State’s run to the playoffs have since left, and I think the Bison will roll to another easy win here.
- #2 South Dakota State (1-0, 0-0) (7.069)
Last Week: Won 20-3 Vs #24 Sac State (0-1)
The Jacks were in control of this one bell to bell in a game that was never as close as what the score seemed to say. The big things I want them to clean up this week are situational efficiencies. 5/12 on 3rd Down and 3/6 for 17 points in the RedZone will not get it done this week.
This week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (-2.75, 58.31%) At #3 Montana State (0-1), 7 PM Sat, ESPN+/Midco2/CBS (Montana Only)
This has all the makings of another classic between these two programs. Ultimately I think the team that makes fewer mistakes and has better QB play wins. How cliché, but I think it is true in this instance.
Go Jacks!
Alex
