The Jackrabbits head south to Springfield, Missouri to wrap up the regular season and send the Missouri State Bears off to Conference USA. The Bears have had a very good 2024 season and are certainly leaving the MVFC on a high note. They are 8-3 and had rattled off 8 straight wins before dropping to NDSU by a score of 21-59 last Saturday. Their other losses are to Montana in week 1 and FBS Ball St. in week 2. This is a good team that will be very determined to end their season with a win. After a disappointing performance in Fargo, I fully expect the Jacks to get their best punch this week.
Offense
The Bear offense is high flying and can put up points with the best of them. They average 37 points per game via 317 passing yards per game and 126.3 rushing yards per game (4.0 per carry). That is pretty decent balance that at least keeps opponents honest and not simply focused on their aerial attack. On 3rd down they are a very efficient converting on 46.83% of their attempts. In the redzone they have scored on 82% of their trips (38/46) and 84% of those scores have been touchdowns (32/28). They have allowed 35 sacks, tossed 6 interceptions, and lost 6 fumbles.
The offensive is powered by the strong arm #12 Jacob Clark (6-5, 220) who has passed for 3,418 yards, 26 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while completing a very efficient 72% of his passes. Has has also rushed for a gross of 240 yards and 1 TD. Watching him on game replays, I’ve been really impressed how he has grown as a passer. He should be in the discussion for the Payton Award.
When Clark drops back to pass, he has a bevy of weapons at his disposal. As I said on the show on Sunday night, I’m impressed by how many of these guys are homegrown within the program and not pulled from the portal. The leading receiver is #2 Hunter Wood (6-1, 205) who has 61 receptions for 753 yards, and 3 TDs. We’ve seen Wood before and last year he had 4 receptions for 78 yards and 2 TDs against the Jacks. He’s a player to watch! The other starting receivers are #0 Jmariyae Robinson (6-1, 165) who has 37 receptions for 575 yards and 4 TDs. We need to be aware of the trick-eration with Robinson as he also has 8 carries for 47 yards and 3 TDs on the season. #10 James BlackStrain (6-2, 180) is one of the transfers (Georgia Tech) playing a prominent role and he has 23 receptions for 333 yards and 3 TDs. The final piece of the wide receiver puzzle is #1 Luke Dash (5-8, 175) and he has 15 receptions for 189 yards and 2 TDs.
One of the biggest threats in this offense is tight end #85 Lance Mason (6-4, 240). Mason has my non-existent vote for 1st team All-MVFC TE. He has 34 receptions for 590 yards and 6 TDs. He can win the contested catches and has the speed and athleticism to make plays in the open field. The Bears also utilize a fullback with #40 Connor Lair (6-1, 225). He has not factored into the passing game but is a good blocker in the run game.
Mo State has a dynamic pair of running backs that will certainly challenge the Jackrabbit defense. #9 Jacardia Wright (6-0, 220) has returned from an injury suffered midseason in 2023 and has rushed for 808 yards (4.7 ypc) and 14 TD! He also has 33 receptions for 290 yards and 2 TD in the passing game. His backup is #5 Jayden Becks (5-11, 185) and he has rushed for 445 yards (7.2 ypc) and 7 TDs. He is also a factor in the passing game and has 20 receptions for 235 yards and 2 TDs.
The offensive line for the Bears has obviously given up the 35 sacks but part of that is just the type of offense they are. From left to right they go:
- #76 Christian Loaiza (6-5, 310, SO)
- #72 Mark Hutchinson (6-2, 300, Jr)
- #71 Cash Hudson (6-3, 290, SO)
- #58 Hutson Lillibridge (6-3, 215, Jr)
- #66 Grant Goodson (6-6, 305, Jr)
This group has some decent experience and pretty good size. We’ll see what the #ChainGang can do against them on Saturday. If Clark has time in the pocket he can certainly pick a defense apart.
Defense
The Bear defense has struggled to gain their footing in most matchups in 2024. They play a 4-3 defense but will slide into a 4-2-5 as needed. They are allowing 29 points per game, 178.5 yard rushing per game, and 208 yards per game passing. Last week, NDSU had 364 yards on the ground and 211 through the air. They have struggled on defense allowing opponents to convert on 42.66% of their opportunities. In the redzone, opponents score 88% of the time (36/41) and 83% of those scores are touchdowns (30/36). They have been good at forcing turnovers with 12 interceptions and 7 fumble recoveries while also collecting 28 sacks.
Up front MSU starts two really good pass rushers at end with #2 Darion Smith (6-4, 245) and #95 Jalen Williams (6-4, 270). Smith transferred in from Charlotte last season and will be making his 22 straight start. He has 48 tackles, 7 TFL, 6 sacks, 2 QBH, and 2 forced fumbles. Williams has 33 tackles, 8 TFL, 6 sacks, and 1 QBH. These two play a lot of snaps but #30 Caden Wiest (6-4, 265) #43 Caleb Dietlin (6-3, 245), and Penn St transfer #17 David Townley Jr. (6-6, 275) are the key reserves. Wiest has 6 sacks but 2.5 have been sacks. Dietlin has just 7 tackles but 3 have been sacks along with 3 more QBH. Townley has 11 stops and 1.5 sacks.
On the interior is a really active rotation of #57 Giles Tchio (6-3, 310), #96 Armon Wallace (6-0, 300), #90 Sterling Smithson (6-3, 325), #50 Mitchell Toney (6-2, 275), and #91 Tim Brantley (6-1, 275) and as you can see, they all have pretty good size. Tchio leads the group with 25 tackles, 3.5 TFL, and 1 sack. Wallace has pitched in with 14 tackles while Smithson has 18 tackles and a sack. Toney has 5 tackles and a sack while Brantley has 13 tackles. This may be the deepest I have seen the Missouri State defensive line.
Will Linebacker #26 Taj Chambers (6-2, 215) leads the team with 82 total tackles, 6.5 TFL and has 2 QBH. The MIKE is #44 Kanye Young (6-1, 220) and has 29 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2 sacks, and 1 INT. The SAM is #11 Dallas Winner-Johnson (6-5, 230) and he 59 total tackles, 6.5 TFL, 1 Sack, and 1 QBH. #28 Michael Teason (6-2, 215) is the only real backup that sees significant action and he has 43 tackles 7 TFL, and 1 sack on the year. He also had a 42 yard scoop and score against Illinois State earlier this season.
The safties for MSU is led by #1 PJ Hall Jr (6-3, 205) who has been a fixture for the Bear secondary for the last four seasons. This season he has only played in 8 games but has 26 stops and 2 interceptions. Hall was a pre-season All-MVFC selection. His partner at safety is #7 Tavier Williams (6-3, 200) who has 32 total tackles and 2 INT in 8 games as well. #16 JJ O’Neal (6-2, 180) has done a good job of filling in for these two as they missed time. He has 40 ttotal tackles and 1 INT and 6 PBUs to his credit.
At cornerback #5 Keleno Levine (5-11, 180), #29 Avery Powell (5-10, 170), and #0 Joe Lemondre (5-11, 180) have seen most of the action on the boundary. Levine leads the group with 47 tackles and also has 6 PBUs. Powell has 37 tackles and 2 PBUs but it is Lemondre that leads the group with 3 interceptions along with 28 tackles. The nickelback is either #10 Dylan Simmons (6-0, 180) who has 21 tackles and an INT or #9 Dylan Dixson (6-1, 180) who has 18 tackles and an INT.
Special Teams
The Bears have one of, if not thee, best punters in the FCS in #31 Grant Burkett. This season he has 40 punts for a 43.34 yard average with a long of 78 yards. He has forced 16 to be fair caught, landed 14 inside the 20 and had 8 travel 50+ yards. He only has 5 touchbacks. Opponents have returned just 8 of his punts for an average of 6.63 yards and a long of 19. The place kicking duties belong to #36 Yousef Obeid who has made 8 of 9 field goals with his long being from 48 yards. His lone miss is from 38 yards and he has had 1 kick blocked. He also handles the kickoff duties and has just a 59 yard average with 1 touchback. The short kickoffs are intentional as opponents have just a 17 yard average on 33 returns and a long of 46.
In the return game, #2 Hunter Wood handles punt returns and has a 6 yard average with a long of 21 yards. #5 Jayden Becks is the primary kick returner and has 16 returns for a 23.81 yard average and 1 TD return (95 returns). These two are dangerous so the kick coverage units will need to be on their game.
Predictions
The Jackrabbits MUST be up for this game because sleep walking through the first quarter can you buried in a hurry against the Bears. The Jackrabbit offense will look to control the ball on the ground and grind out a win in this one. The secondary will be tested in this one and
Jackrabbits 52- Bears 21
Go Jacks!
Matt
