The Jackrabbits (10-0) host the Missouri State Bears (4-6) to wrap up the regular season on Saturday. This Bears team has had a down season but is coming off of it’s best game of the season which was a win over Northern Iowa. The Bears only road win of the season was against Western Illinois so they have certainly struggled away from Springfield. It is senior day in Brookings and it looks like beautiful weather. Sounds like a good day to smash the regular season total attendance record!
Offense
The MSU offense can really put up some points and does so to the tune of 31 ppg! They prefer to move the ball through the air with 304 yards per game and rush for just 103 per game. They are good on 3rd down and convert on 44.26% of their opportunities. In the redzone, they are solid scoring on 33 of 36 trips but only 26 were touchdowns. Opponents have registered 25 sacks and have corralled 11 interceptions. MSU only has the ball for 28:15 per game.
The MSU quarterback position has been manned the last handful of weeks by #2 Jordan Pachot (6-2, 203). Pachot has completed 67.8% of his passes this year for 2,024 yards and 17 TDs. He has however tossed 9 interceptions. The opening day starter was #12 Jacob Clark. In the four games before his injury, he completed 63% of his passes for 1,018 yards and 10 TDs.
The Bear’s running back room took a major hit as it lost its leading rusher during the game vs. UNI. #9 Jacardia Wright suffered a major arm injury and will not play this week. He had 696 rushing yards and 6 TDs. Behind him are a trio of backs who have a combined 63 carries this season. #31 Celdon Manning (5-10, 182) was listed as the backup last week but he has just 18 carries for 110 yards. Manning runs really hard and surprised me with how physical he runs. He is also a threat out of the backfield where he has 8 receptions for 96 yards and a TD. True freshman #5 Jayden Becks (5-11, 185) took a lot of carries after Wright went down and he has 25 attempts for 110 yards (4.4 ypc) and 2 TDs. #1 Jakairi Moses (5-9, 195) has not played the last few weeks but does have 20 carries for 112 yards (5.6 ypc) and 1 TD this season.
The wide receiver room is full of talent and has numerous dudes that can really catch the ball. #6 Raylen Sharpe (5-9, 172) is on the smaller side but he is electric with the ball in his hands. He has 65 receptions for 905 yards and 7 TDs. Opposite him is #18 Terique Owens (6-3, 200), son of Terrell Owens. He is a big play threat and has 28 receptions for 528 yards and 4 TDs. #0 Jmariyae Robinson (6-1, 171) is making an impact with 42 receptions for 486 yards and 5 TD. #88 Hunter Wood (6-1, 205) has 23 receptions for 294 yards and 3 TDs. #84 DVontae Key (5-10, 185) rounds out the room and has 12 receptions for 142 yards and a TD. The tight end is #85 Lance Mason and he has just 7 receptions for 94 yards and a TD this season.
The offensive line has good size but is slightly inexperienced and has battled injuries this season. Against UNI, they lined up (from left to right) as #78 Ja’Veo Toliver (6-4, 302, Jr), #72 Marck Hutchinson (6-2, 298, So), #71 Cash Hudson (6-4, 290, RFr), #58 Hutson Lillibridge (6-3, 318, So), and #74 Erick Cade (6-7, 345, So). None of these guys have started every game with most only starting a handful or so this season. With all this turnover on the offensive line, it’s easy to see why opponents have recorded 25 sacks and how UNI added 3 last week.
Defense
The Bear defense has really been up and down this year but last week was hands down their best performance of the year. They are allowing 30 ppg, 175 ypg rushing, and 245 ypg through the air. Opponents are converting nearly 45% of their 3rd down opportunities and have scored on 38 of 42 trips into the redzone but just 25 have been touchdowns. The Bears have registered 16 sacks, recovered 3 fumbles and have forced 10 interceptions. The Bears play a 4-3 defense and appear to have good size across the board.
Up front the Bears are led by the active #8 Devin Goree (6-3, 254) from his defensive end spot. Goree has 36 total tackles, 8.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 1 PBU, 9 QBH, and 1 forced fumble. He certainly needs to be identified. Opposite him is #2 Dairon Smith (6-4, 260) who has also had a productive season with 35 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 PBU, and 4 more QBH. That is a nice duo of defensive ends! On the interior is true freshman, #91 Tim Brantley Jr. (6-1, 320) and he has 26 tackles and 4.5 TFL. #90 Sterling Smithson (6-3, 325) is the other starting DT and he has registered 14 tackles and 3 TFL. #96 Armon Wallace (6-0, 300) is a key reserve and he has 17 tackles and an interception. #95 Jalen Williams (6-4, 251) is a reserve end with 21 tackles, 3 TFL, 1.5 sacks and 6 QBH.
From his middle linebacker spot, #17 Jared Lloyd (6-3, 231) is second on the team with 59 total tackles and also has 6.5 TFL, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, and 1 forced fumble. He is flanked by #26 Tahj Chambers (6-2, 215) at the will and #30 Von Young (6-0, 218) at the sam. Chambers has racked up 49 tackles, 3.5 TFL, and 4 PBUs while Young has 35 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and 2 sacks. Reserve #44 Kanye Young (6-1, 235) has contributed with 17 tackles and a forced fumble. #31 Cooper Roy has 8 tackles, 4 TFL, and 2 sacks in limited opportunities this year.
The secondary is led by starting safety #4 Todric McGee (6-1, 198) who leads the team by a wide margin with 95 total tackles including a whopping 53 solos. He has 2 TFL, .5 sack, 2 INTs, 6 PBUs, and 2 QBH. He appears to be all over the field. The other starting safety is #12 PJ Hall Jr. (6-3, 199) who is 3rd on the team with 55 total tackles. He has also added 2 INT, 7 PBU, and a forced fumble. The starting corners are listed as #29 Avery Powell (5-10, 175), #22 Lemondre Joe (6-0, 172), and #25 Caleb Blake (6-0, 187). Powell has 46 tops, 2 TFL, and 7 PBU. Joe has 17 tackles, 1 INT, and 3 PBU. Blake is the nickelback and he has 30 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2 INT, 5 PBU, and 1 forced fumble. #10 Dylan Simmons (6-0, 185) is a reserve corner who has 22 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 PBU.
Special Teams
The Bears do have one of the best punters in all of the FCS in #31 Grant Burkett. He has 31 punts this year with a 43.29 average. He has forced 17 to be faircaught, landed 4 inside the 20, launched 9- 50+ yards, and has just 1 touchback. Opponents are averaging just 4 yards per return with a long of 12 yards.
#35 Owen Rozanc handles the field goal duties where he has made 8 of 11 attempts. His longest is 44 yards. He has had two kicks blocked this season. #36 Spencer Grosz handles the kickoff duties and he has a 60 yard average on 58 attempts. 26 of those kicks have been touchbacks and 2 have landed out of bounds. Opponents only have a 18 yard return average and a long of 39 yards. Both punt and kick coverage appear solid for MSU.
The Bears are a program that is known for having good skill year in and year out. This makes their return teams dangerous. #6 Raylen Sharpe has 9 punt returns for 115 yards (12.78 yard average) while #5 Jayden Becks handles kick return duties and he has a 19 yard average with a long of 55 yards.
Prediction
Earlier in the year I thought this one would be our “gimme” game of the year. I thought this because I assumed the season would be over for MSU and that we would be playing in cold weather. However, the weather looks beautiful and MSU just played their best game of the season, proving they are still playing hard. However, the Jacks are on a mission to secure the number one seed and all three phases of the game are just playing so well.
Jackrabbits 34- Bears 17
Go Jacks!
Matt
