And just like that we’re back! Welcome to year two of MVFC By The Numbers. I’ve taken on some additional responsibilities in my personal life in the form of a second kid this offseason and being “promoted” to white hat on my high school officiating crew, but I still am looking forward to bringing you all this content this season. One way I look to do this easier is to show don’t tell more with our graphics. This year in addition to our team race graphic that will be back after week 1 we will have team specific graphics. For now we will rank the teams by their share of conference wins and that will be parenthesized next to the teams. These will show the odds of each game on the teams schedule as well as the individual odds of the win totals for each team. From there we will do a match up preview, but they probably won’t always be as in depth as last year. As always I look forward to your comments and questions! Below we will have the preseason schedule odds and previews that will be a lot of recap of our MVFC preview pod you can find here: https://www.youtube.com/live/CN5ARtTBeRU?si=CcR-meh8tTxjagDJ
Without much ado further let’s jump into it!
11. Murray State (0.819 conf wins)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
First year coach Jody Wright takes over a program in major need of a revamp. Wright has never been a head coach let alone a coordinator before but he brings in a ton of NFL and P4 experience as an assistant and as part of that brings in former NDSU QB Zeb Noland as the QB coach. The biggest name to watch this year on the field will be former Sioux Falls Washington and NDSU QB Jayden Johannsen who will replace former MVFC newcomer of the year DJ Williams who transferred to Southern Illinois.
10 Indiana State (1.49)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
After splitting time with Cade Chambers and Gavin Screws left the program the QB job will finally belong to Elijah Owens who flashed in his 4 games last year and who their coaches are very high on. They lost a lot on a team that was otherwise not great last year so it will be interesting to see which way they trend this year. Do they crash even harder or have they lost of some of the bad eggs?
9. Missouri State (3.59)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
The main storyline is that this will be the Bears last year in the FCS as they move to the C-USA and the FBS next year. Jacob Clarke and Jacardia Wright are finally healthy after being knicked up most of last year. Coach Ryan Beard says they are saving their redshirts for next year and will be trying to win the MVFC in their last shot here.
8. Northern Iowa (3.59)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
Gone are Theo Day and Sam Schnee, and the Panthers will have a lot of production in their pass game to replace and interesting enough they will be going to a Spread offense in an attempt to do it. That in and of itself has gotten off to a rough start as OC Luke Falk had to leave the team for personal reasons halfway through spring ball. A name to watch on the Panthers is Jared Pennig who will be a legit NFL prospect.
7. #25 Youngstown State (3.71)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
Youngstown will be a bit of an interesting case study this year as they were a good not great team, but have a lot of turnover. As discussed with Indiana State that really leaves quite a bit of possibility with where their season could go, and behind a solid coach like Doug Phillips there is fair reason to expect it in the positive direction. In regards to some of that turnover , the defense for the penguins was a revolving door in the portal both in and out. The secondary was a very big weakness for this team last year, have they strengthened it via addition by subtraction? On the other side of the ball QB Mitch Davidson and top WR Bryce Oliver are graduated. There are a trio of young Youngstown QBs who are expected to compete for the job even into the early part of the season. Elsewhere on the offense they will return top RB Tyshon King and WR Max Tomczak. Both were key contributors last year and will really have to shoulder the load for what will be a young Youngstown offense this year.
6. #24 North Dakota (4.08)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
UND is a team with a ton of questions on both sides of the ball. They had a ton of transfers out including starting QB Tommy Schuester, most of the offensive line, and OC Danny Freund. On that note if they want to continue their playoff streak they will have to lean heavily on returning veterans LB Wyatt Pedigo, WR Bo Belquist, and RB Gaven Ziebarth. UND is one of the more consistent programs of the last 5-10 years, but it is hard to remember a year where they had this many unknowns coming into a season.
5. #5 South Dakota (4.40)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
USD is coming off the best season in program history that included a trip to the quarter finals and a final ranking of #4. They will look to build off of that this year and attempt to finish ranked and qualify for the playoffs 2 years in a row for the first time in their division 1 history. And if they are going to do it, then it will require a script flip from last year’s team. The 2023 Yotes relied heavily on a stifling defense and played ball control on offense. After their roster turnover they are going to look to have to be more explosive on offense to help what will be a young defense with 6/11 starters departing including almost the entire front 7 plus key CB Shahid Barros possibly lost for the season. In order to do so they have relied heavily on transfers of particular players with playing time from the Ivy and Pioneer League conferences. If they are going to be more explosive on offense they will have the pieces to do it. They are returning almost all their skill players, most notably QB Aidan Bouman, RB Travis Thies, and TE JJ Galbreath.
4. #19 Illinois State (4.41)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
Illinois State is my team to watch personally for the MVFC this year. Four of their five losses came by single digits last year the Redbirds are going to be focused to turn that luck around. While QB Zach Annexstad has finally exhausted his eligibility, Tommy Rittenhouse has gotten a fair amount of significant game snaps and starts in his stead the last 2 years. Joining him on the offense top receiver Daniel Sobkowicz and top back Mason King (nee Blakemore) will be back to help carry the load as well. They will also bring back 3 starters on their offensive line plus a Minnesota transfer. On the either side of the ball All-American LB Amir Abdullah returns to lead what should be an always stout Brock Spack defense.
3. #10 Southern Illinois (4.79)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
Southern Illinois has lost a ton of guys on offense to graduation, but they have used the portal to restock the shelves. QB DJ Williams joins the Salukis from Murray State where he has struggled to stay healthy, but when he has been he has been sneakily one of the most dynamic players in all of the FCS. They are also bringing in WR Bradley Clark from Tenn Tech and RB Eddie Robinson from Duquense both of whom led their teams in their respective categories last season. Joining them will be returning all conference honorable mention TE Aidan Quinn. On the defensive side of the ball most of their play makers are gone including swiss army knife Safety PJ Jules, but they will have 7 players back with starting experience on a unit that was #2 in the MVFC and #4 Nationally in DPPG last year.
2. #2 North Dakota State (6.18)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
The Matt Entz era has come to an end in Fargo. In walks former OC Tim Pollasek after a stint serving in the same role at Wyoming. Pollasek has really talked about wanting to get back to the basics and really ingraining the processes back into NDSU football. On the other side of the ball former player Grant Olson has been promoted to DC and will be calling plays for the first time. On the personnel side of things offensively Cam Miller will return for his 6th and final year along with backup Cole Payton. They lost #1 WR Eli Green to the portal but do bring back #2 and #3 from last year Raja Nelson and Braylon Henderson. They also bring back pass catchers in the form of top TE and FB Joe Stoeffel and Hunter Brozio. On the offensive line they only return starters Zabel and Miller, however, both guys are NFL hopefuls and NDSU reloads the lines as good as anyone. On the defensive side of the ball Cole Wisnieswki will hopefully be back but he is dealing with some injuries right now. Wisnieswki had an astounding 8 ints last year and will be very hard to replace if he can’t go due to his injury. The Bison will also return an additional 9-10 players on the defense with starting experience.
1. #1 South Dakota State (6.94)
Key Points/Storylines to watch:
I’ll keep it brief as Matt has gone far more in depth than I ever could here. It should just be known that while maybe not as dominant as last year this team is still the national and conference favorite. Get to the Dana and support this team. They feed off it and you can make a difference.
Go Jacks!
Alex
