They hung around way longer than we thought they would, but Indiana State has left the building. We’re done to 4 teams still alive in the last 2 weeks and across those 2 weeks we have 3 games that contain 2 of these teams! Including our game of the week this week which will leave us with one lone contender in the driver seat come Saturday, as well as our first clinch scenarios this week. Let’s dive in!

Clinch: 

NDSU:

WIN AND USD LOSS (21.54%)

MO State:

WIN AND SDSU LOSS AND USD LOSS (0.65%)

Elimination:

USD: LOSS (24.66%)

SDSU: LOSS OR (NDSU WIN AND USD LOSS) (23.89%)

MO State: LOSS AND USD LOSS (21.54%)

11. Murray State (1-9, 0-7) (0.113 conf wins)

Last week: Loss 59-31 Vs Missouri State (8-2, 6-0)

As apathetic as the Racer defense is and continues to be, the offense continues to show some fight. The Missouri State defense is hardly known for being stout, but once again it is encouraging for a team trying to build themselves up to continue to fight.

 

This Week: (+46, <0.01%) At Kentucky (FBS) (3-6), 12:30PM Sat, ESPN+

 

It is SEC FCS week, and as a traditional rival of in-state Kentucky the Racers will get a crack at an FBS scalp as well as a big check. Even as poor as Kentucky has been this year I don’t see it happening, but never say never.

 

10. (-1) Northern Iowa  (2-8, 0-6) (1.093)

Last Week: Lost 31-9 Vs #17 Illinois State (7-3, 4-2)

 

The wheels have finally come all the way off on Cedar Falls.On top of that with the announcement that Mark Farley is hanging it up after this season it is just gloomy all around for the Panthers. I know I normally should recap the game more, but it wasn’t close so you didn’t miss much. On Farley’s retirement announcement, while part of me feels that this should have come sooner I still can’t help but feel a bit sad/nostalgic about this one. Farley is the last remaining of the MVFC old guard, and this will be an end of an era. Despite the struggles as of late Mark Farley teams were always known for playing super physically on both sides of the ball and exceptional line play. Here’s to Farley and whatever comes next, he’s earned this one.

 

This Week: (+5.78, 35.39%) Vs Youngstown State (3-8, 2-5), 11 AM, ESPN+

 

See Youngstown State.

9. (+1) Southern Illinois (3-7, 1-5) (1.917)

Last Week: 37-33 Win Vs Youngstown State (3-8, 2-5)

 

Salukis came back from down in the mid second quarter to pull off the biggest upset in school history. Although the rushing offense for Southern Illinois is still fairly non-existent, Jake Curry was finally able to shoulder the load in mounting the comeback. He led the Salukis in both rushing and passing finishing the day with 400 all purpose yards and 4 total TDs. Just when it looked like SIU had given up, they came out and showed that there actually is some fight left in this team. 

 

This Week: (+29.88, 3.01%) At #3 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-1), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+/MidcoSN

 

See South Dakota State.

 

8. (-1) Youngstown State (3-8, 2-5) (2.646)

Last Week: 37-33 Loss At Southern Illinois (3-7, 1-5)

 

Youngstown jumped out to a 28-0 lead early and then gave it all away scoring just 3 the rest of the way. Beau Brungard continued to be a versatile threat on the ground and in the air, but his 2 ints are part of what let Southern Illinois back in the game. This only made more painful by the fact that Brungard missed on 4 shots from just inside the 20 in the waning seconds to win the game down 4. This was an epic collapse by a Penguin team that to this point had actually been showing some fight. However, now they are left headed into their last game of the year doing some soul searching.

 

This Week: (-5.78, 64.61%) Vs Northern Iowa (2-8, 0-6), 11 AM, ESPN+

 

We have a team playing in their last game of the season at home looking to end a tough year on a high note going against a team who’s legendary coach announced he’s hanging it up after the season and has yet to win a conference game on the season. I really have no idea what to expect in this one other than literally anything could happen.

7. (+1) North Dakota (5-5, 2-4) (2.725)

Last Week: 38-7 Loss Vs #3 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-1)

 

Point of clarity quick, not sure what’s up with the win odds chart, but it’s kind of funny so I left it. Anyhow, the Fighting Hawks came out with some energy early, but after the initial wave it was all Jacks leading the Hawks to continue on their now 3 game skid. They were outmatched physically and a dominant SDSU defense made the touted UND rushing attack look pedestrian outside of the lone Isaiah Davis 60 some odd yard rushing TD.  The Hawks playoff hopes are still alive but they are majorly on life support.

 

This Week: (+10.97, 24.66%), Vs #5 South Dakota (7-2, 5-1), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+/MidcoSN

 

See South Dakota.

 

6. Indiana State (4-6, 3-3) (3.436)

Last Week: Lost 49-0 At # 5 South Dakota (7-2, 5-1)

The Sycamore magic of winning or at least losing close finally came to an end last Saturday. Nothing much to say here as a top 5 team that was out to prove a point completely dismantled the poor trees.

 

This week: (+12.29, 17.53%) Vs #17 Illinois State (7-3, 4-2), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+

 

See Illinois State.

 

5. #17 Illinois State (7-3, 4-2) (5.347)

Last Week: Won 31-9 At Northern Iowa (2-8, 0-6)

 

Those that follow along weekly (thank you for the support!) knew that I have been clamoring for Illinois State to look the part. Although it was against a pretty listless Northern Iowa team they finally did a little bit this week. The Illinois State offense had good balance rushing and passing for 217 and 292 yards respectively, and were dynamite on money downs going 9/15 on 3rd and 2/2 on 4th. The Redbirds are looking the part late into the regular season here, and although without a signature win I don’t think they’ll sneak into a first round bye even at 9-3 if they run the table, they are looking like they should host and convincingly win a first round game, and then be a bit of an uncomfortable matchup for a top 8 seed in the second round.

 

This Week: (-12.29, 82.47%), At Indiana State (4-6, 3-3), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+

This is a bit more interesting of a game than it was 3-4 weeks ago. Illinois State needs this game to keep their playoff hopes, and specifically top 16 seed hopes alive. Indiana State on the other hand has shown they are a team that is not just content to play out the year and are trying to build something. Overall I think that this is a game the Redbirds can and should win handily if they are going to do what they want and think they can in the second season.

 

 

4. #5 South Dakota (7-2, 5-1) (6.179)

Last Week: Won 49-0 Vs Indiana State (4-6, 3-3)

 

This one was never in question as the Yotes coming off a bye and an agonizing loss to their arch rival made an example of the trees. They did so with some style points which may be needed as we head towards selection Sunday. The Yotes currently have 1 then ranked win and 0 currently ranked wins with only one opportunity left for a ranked win.

 

This Week: (-10.97, 75.34%) At North Dakota (5-5, 2-4), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+/MidcoSN

 

This is an intriguing one. The Yotes have never won in the Alerus and have not beat their secondary rival in Grand Forks since the 2000s. UND comes in needing a win to cling to what little remains of their playoff lives, while USD themselves could go from a top 5 ranking to their playoff hopes in dire straits if they were to stub their toe. I think on paper I think this actually lines up quite a bit like the SDSU-UND game unfortunately for the Fighting Hawks. Their offense will struggle against a very good USD front and the Yotes offense should have plenty of firepower to put up points in bunches when needed.

3. Missouri State (8-2, 6-0) (6.321)

Last Week: Won 59-31 At Murray State (1-9, 0-7)

 

Missouri State wins big against Murray as predicted, but once again their defense was uninspiring. Jacob Clarke is playing like a Walter Payton dark horse however, and he continues to help the Bears score whatever number of points is needed to get the job done.

 

This Week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (+15.86, 12.66%) At #1 North Dakota State (9-1, 6-0), 2:30 PM Sat, ESPN+/ABC (ND Only)

 

See NDSU.

 

2. #3 South Dakota State (8-2, 5-1) (6.776)

Last Week: Won 38-7 At North Dakota (5-5, 2-4)

 

The Jacks went into the always difficult to play in Alerus Center and absolutely handled their business. Although I would have liked to see the number one offense polish off one of their last two drives it is hard to complain as this is the most complete the Jacks have looked all season. The Yellow and Blue just may be catching fire at the right moment.

 

This Week: (-29.88, 96.99%) Vs Southern Illinois (3-7, 1-5), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+/MidcoSN

 

A Jackrabbit team looking to steam ahead to a top 3 playoff seed will host a SIU team coming off a very emotional victory on Senior Day. I think the SIU defense could do enough in this one to keep it close. IF the SIU offense can sustain some drives. That is not something they have done well since getting hit with injuries, and they are going against one of the top units in the country. 

1. #1 North Dakota State (9-1, 6-0) (7.448)

Last Week: Bye

 

This week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (-15.86, 87.34%) Vs Missouri State (8-2, 6-0), 2:30 PM Sat, ESPN+/ABC (Only ND)

 

Game of the week as the winner will have sole control of the MVFC headed into the last week of the season. If this one is close it is because there are tons of points scored for both teams. Missouri State’s defense will really struggle against Cam Miller and crew. The question will be can Jacob Clark create plays of his own to go tit for tat over the course of the afternoon?

 

Go Jacks!

 

Alex