Last week of the year and as usual 3 of the 5 Valley games have huge playoff implications. We have our two games that will decide who wins the Valley and the Autobid as well as Illinois State looking to all but guarantee a spot in the tournament against UND. As far as the scenarios below, NDSU will be able to hang a conference title banner no matter what as the Valley very stupidly chooses not to recognize tie breaks as far as the conference title goes (you literally have to do them for the autobid anyhow). If USD wins, they, NDSU, and whoever wins the Mo State/SDSU game will split the conference 3 ways with the autobid going to USD if Missouri State wins, and more than likely SDSU if they win. Odds of each scenario are shown below.
Clinch:
NDSU:
WIN (61.6%)
MO State:
WIN AND USD Win (5.8%)
USD:
Win AND Mo State Win (5.8%)
SDSU:
Win AND USD Win (32.59%)
- Murray State (1-10, 0-7) (0.142 conf wins)
Last week: Loss 48-6 Vs Kentucky (FBS) (4-6)
The Racers covered the spread. That is about all you can take away from this one. It went pretty well as expected. The Racers were never really in it as the P4 rival in their state took care of business the whole way.
This Week: (+14.85, 14.20%), At Southern Illinois (3-8, 1-6), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
See SIU.
- Northern Iowa (2-9, 0-7) (0.780)
Last Week: Lost 39-38 (OT) At Youngstown State (4-8, 3-5)
The Panthers just came up short in a back and forth affair that saw surprisingly little offense for a game that ended regulation tied at 31. This was just a bit of an odd game. The Panthers were honestly outplayed by the Penguins for most of this one, but being able to capitalize on a short field off of a fumble, and a kick return to keep them on it and force an OT where they came up short. I think those kind effort plays are the biggest thing for a team like the Panthers. This year hasn’t gone their way, and they have caught quite a few bad breaks, but you like to see the effort. They will have one last chance to get a Valley win for Mark Farley next week and they will need to bring that effort to do it.
This Week: (-7.65, 72.96%) At Indiana State (4-7, 3-4), 1 PM Sat, PSN-TV/Marquee/ESPN+
See Indiana State.
- Southern Illinois (3-8, 1-6) (1.917)
Last Week: 41-10 Loss At #3 South Dakota State (9-2, 6-1)
To the shock of no one this one was not particularly close. SIU did some things to move the ball well early on, but eventually the wheels came off. To make matters worse QB Jake Curry went down and that moved the Salukis officially to QB5 on the year, Michael Lindauer who started the year as a GA on the coaching staff. Elsewhere there was not much to remark outside of WR Allen Middleton having a quietly good game with 5 grabs for 94 yds and a TD, but it was largely unnoticed due to about half of that coming solidly in garage time.
This Week: (-14.85, 85.80%), Vs Murray State (1-10, 0-7), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
This game will feature two teams who have not had the season they hoped looking to go out on a high note. This is also a bot of a rivalry due to the proximity of the campuses so this could be a sneakily interesting game. Although the model thinks SIU is a heavy favorite, I’m not sure I agree entirely. While their defense will be the best unit on the field in this one I think Murray’s offense may be able to move the ball enough against them to keep it interesting, while on the other side neither unit has much to note and could go any which way.
- (-1) North Dakota (5-5, 2-6) (2.470)
Last Week: 42-36 Loss Vs #4 South Dakota (8-2, 6-1)
UND jumped out to an early lead, and looked like the Alerus magic may have guided them to the upset and keeping their playoff hopes alive. However a big 32-0 run from the Yotes in the late 2nd quarter until the early 4th made it too tall of a task even if the Hawks were a 4th down conversion and/or an onside kick (in addition to the one they did get) from coming back on their own and making it interesting. I think this game really was a microcosm for UND’s season. A fairly one dimensional offense with a defense that broke down at the wrong times, and overall just not making a play here or there needed to win close games.
This Week: (+2.12, 46.98%), At #14 Illinois State (8-3, 5-2), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
See Illinois State.
- (+1) Youngstown State (4-8, 3-5)
Last Week: 39-38 Win (OT) Vs Northern Iowa (2-9, 0-7)
Youngstown was clearly the better team, but once again found a way to muck it up. The difference was this way when it came down to it at the end. Looking back through Youngstown’s schedule, if they had found a way in 4-5 of the games they dropped they would’ve been a 9-16 seed in this year’s playoffs. Beau Brungard was again solid, and I think if they can keep him in house he’ll be a piece to build around. They have a lot of other questions elsewhere, but the talent and makings are there to be a contender. Hopefully a game like this to end an otherwise disappointing season allows them to springboard off going forward.
This Week: Bye
- Indiana State (4-7, 3-4) (3.270)
Last Week: Lost 31-19 Vs #14 Illinois State (8-3, 5-2)
This game probably wasn’t quite as the score, but it once again showed that this is a new Indiana State team. When they get down they don’t roll over and die. They continue to play hard until the final whistle. Elijah Owens had another nice game, and if they get some pieces either in recruiting or the portal to build around him going forward this could be a very dangerous offense. Defensively the trees have a long way to go however, before building into a consistent contender.
This week: (+7.65, 27.04%) At Northern Iowa (2-9, 0-7),1 PM Sat, PSN-TV/Marquee/ESPN+
The storyline in this one is Mark Farley coaching in his last game at home on senior day. The Panthers have yet to win a Valley game this year, and they are facing one of the traditional doormats of the conference. However, the Sycamores have been less so than normal this year, and are looking to cap what has been a very good season relative to what they have had lately with a win. Looking at the records you would think Indiana State should win this, however, I think even beyond the favorable advanced numbers the Panthers will be eager to send Farley off into the sunset.
- #14 Illinois State (8-3, 5-2) (5.530)
Last Week: Won 31-19 Vs Indiana State (4-7, 3-4)
Despite the somewhat close margin this was actually a fairly dominant performance for the Redbirds, especially through the air. Rittenhouse went 29-41, 319, 3 TD and Sobkowicz went 8 for 156 yds and 2 TDs. The defense also played pretty well, limiting the Sycamores to just over 3.2 ypc on the ground and 6.7 yd/att through the air. The big thing you have to wonder about heading towards the playoff is how will the Redbird run game fair? It was another very uninspiring performance from the offensive line and back field. That will need to change in the postseason.
This Week: (-2.12, 53.02%), Vs North Dakota (5-6, 2-6), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
Illinois State is probably already a lock for the playoffs, but if they win this one they are looking at being a top 16 seed in the new playoff format. On the other hand UND is coming into this one looking to end a 4 game skid as they head to the offseason. On paper these are actually pretty evenly matched teams, but we know how UND fairs on the road versus in their own building. Taking into account the motivation that each team is playing for I think the Redbirds should handle their business in this one.
- (-1) Missouri State (8-3, 6-1) (6.151)
Last Week: Lost 59-21 At #1 North Dakota State (10-1, 7-0)
The Bears were able to move the ball around a little bit late in this one, but it was never remotely in question. Their lack of a defense and one dimensional offense never really have them a chance in this one. Missouri State looked completely outclassed in all 3 phases and an early fumble really let the Bison take the momentum and never give it away.
This Week: (+14.05, 15.13%), Vs #3 South Dakota State (9-2, 6-1), 2PM Sat, MC22/ESPN+
See SDSU.
- (+1) #4 South Dakota (8-2, 6-1) (6.384)
Last Week: Won 42-36 At North Dakota (5-6, 2-5)
The Yotes absolutely should feel good about a win in a rivalry game, especially where they had not won since the 80s. However, there were quite a few things that should throw up red flags that could really cost them in the playoffs or next week against NDSU. The slow start, interception, and special teams breakdowns let them give this one away. Now their high end talent especially Charles Pierre Jr who had a monster game, 15 carries for 173 yds and a TD and his counterpart Thies having 16 carries for 130 and a TD. When their run game is going like that few are going to stop them.
This Week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (+3.53, 38.40%), 1 PM Sat, MidcoSN/ESPN+
See NDSU.
- #3 South Dakota State (9-2, 6-1) (6.849)
Last Week: Won 41-10 Vs Southern Illinois (3-8, 1-6)
A bit of a slow start, but overall another really complete game from the Jacks again showing they are starting to peak at the right time. Matthew Durrance had a career high 2 INTS worth noting as well as Amar Johnson having a career day for yardage on senior day.
This Week: (-14.05, 84.87%), At Missouri State (8-3, 6-1), 2 PM Sat MC22/ESPN+
Missouri State will be playing their last game as an FCS team on their senior day against an SDSU team that is looking to secure a top 3 playoff seed. The Missouri State offense will be one of the toughest challenges a very stout Jackrabbit defense has faced this year, and if the Bears want a chance in this one they will have to be on. The Jackrabbit offense is getting hot in both phases at the right time, and the Missouri State defense has been very porous at times. Look for a lot of points put up in this one, and a shootout if Missouri State is going to pull the upset.
- #1 North Dakota State (10-1, 7-0) (7.616)
Last Week: Won 59-21 Vs Missouri State (8-3, 6-1)
The Bison looked every part of the number one team against a very good Missouri State team last week. The offense clicked right along and the defense did not give up much of anything until after the game was well out of reach. This is a dangerous team that looks like those of old and the Bison look poised to resummit the mountain.
This week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (-3.53, 61.6%), 1 PM Sat, MidcoSN/ESPN+
The Bison are looking to lock up a top 2 seed and the undisputed conference crown. USD is looking to be a top 3-5 seed vs a 7-12 with a loss and their first ever D1 conference title, even if it would be a shared title. This could also be a signature Payton game for Cam Miller as he goes on the road against one of the best defenses in the country. Whereas the other side this could be a legacy statement game for Bob Nielson and the senior class. I think this game will come down to can NDSU run the ball well enough to make USD respect it and give Cam Miller some nice opportunities to distribute the ball? And can Aidan Bouman and Co. take advantage of opportunities in the NDSU secondary?
Go Jacks!
Alex
