Welcome back, apologies for missing last week, but we had friends moving back to the area and as a result of helping them, sick kids, and planning and packing for a weekend trip to the Black Hills this slipped off my plate, but we are back and ready to go for week 2. Quick clerical point and a reminder how this works. The race is measured by share of conference wins. If you have a 80% chance of winning a conference game you get credit for 0.8 “wins”. If a team’s logo has no outline around it, that means they still control their own destiny for their autobid. If there is a red outline around it that means they are still alive but no longer are in control of their own destiny. If their line has stopped they have been mathematically eliminated from contention for the autobid.As you can see there is already some jockeying in the middle of the pack, and I expect that to continue as the year goes. Now let’s get into the games!

11. Murray State (0-1, 0-0) (0.819 conf wins)

Last week: 0-51 Loss at #9 (FBS) Missouri (1-0)

 

Not a lot to talk about here. Racers unsurprisingly got smoked by a team that’s going to be in the CFP picture. Name of the game was to collect a check and stay healthy and that’s what they did.

 

This Week: (-10.9, 79.8% WP) Vs Butler (1-0), Sat 6 PM, ESPN+

 

The Racers will host Butler this week. Butler beat NAIA Upper Iowa handily last week, but this is still a game the Racers should win somewhat comfortably. After struggling against a team way out of their league last week this will be an opportunity to start to get an actual look at what the team will look like under first year head coach Jody Wright.

 

 

10. Indiana State (0-1, 0-0) (1.37)

Last Week: Loss at (FBS) Purdue (1-0) 0-49:

 

The trees got absolutely blasted by a BigTen foe. Much like their rivals in Kentucky the goal was get in, get out healthy, and cash a check. They were successful in this regard and will move forward.

 

This Week: (+3.66, 41.1%) at Eastern Illinois (0-1), 6 PM Sat, ESPN+

 

Nothing like an early season non-conference rivalry game in college football even if neither team is very good. Both teams got smoked by FBS foes last week so this is their defacto first game in what might not necessarily be good football, but should be an interesting game. This will probably be Indiana State’s lone chance to steal one where they might not necessarily be favored.

9. (-1) Northern Iowa (1-0, 0-0) (3.62)

Last Week: Won 35-7 Vs Valparaiso (0-1)

 

UNI handily won their season opener against the Pioneer League’s Valparaiso. Despite claiming a new look air raid offense for UNI they rushed for 365 yards and passed for 116 yards.

 

This Week: (-22.01, 92.47%)  At St. Thomas (0-1), Sat 1 PM, Midco+

 

UNI plays another Pioneer League foe this week in the form of former D3 power St. Thomas. The Tommies are reeling after a loss to D2 Sioux Falls. The Panthers are and should be a heavy favorite again in this one. The story line to watch will be do we actually see some of the promised air raid this week or was that all a veneer and we’re about to see the UNI of old.

 

8. (-1) #25 Youngstown State (0-1, 0-0) (3.69)

Last Week: Lost 17-24 At #5 Villanova (1-0)

 

Through one week the question marks about the YSU secondary definitely seem to point to them being improved. The front 7 also looked serviceable giving up almost half of their 246 yards on the ground to QB scrambles. On the offensive side of the ball Beau Brungard struggled early,and then settled in late to mount a comeback that ultimately came up short. Tyshon King was bottled up, but other RB Ethan Wright looked pretty good.

 

This Week: (-35.21, 99.4%) Vs Valparaiso (0-1), Sat 1 PM, ESPN+

 

The Penguins showed some promise last week. This week their goal should be to continue to work out those kinks against what is a very bad team.

7. (+2) Missouri State (0-1, 0-0) (3.84)

Last Week:Lost 25-29 At #4 Montana (1-0)

 

The Bears were a Jacob Clark pick and a couple big returns in the kick game, even with the Griz without Junior Bergen, from almost doing the unthinkable in Wa-Griz. I also don’t want to let that generalization detract from Jacob Clark’s game. Overall he played pretty well going 23-39 for 257 Yds. Although sledding was tough at times against the stout Griz front Jacardia Wright also looked closer to his former self than the last few years.

 

This Week: (+3.42, 38.41%) At (FBS) Ball State, Sat 1 PM, ESPN+:

 

The Bears take on Ball State in what is their last chance to get an FBS scalp as an FCS program. If the Bears can continue the magic of the near upset they pulled on Saturday they will have a chance in this one. My personal, lazy, and cliched opinion is that they will live and die by Jacob Clark’s arm in this one.

 

6. (-2) #21 Illinois State (0-1) (4.16)

Last Week: Lost 0-40 At #21 (FBS) Iowa (1-0)

 

The Redbirds hung in for a half in this one only being down 6-0 at the break, but then the flood gates opened. None of the Redbird Qbs they tried looked especially great, but Tommy Rittenhouse did look the best and I’d expect him to get the start again this week. The real storyline out of this one was star player Mason King (RB) and Amir Abdullah (LB) going down with injuries. Jacks fans know firsthand just how physical these Iowa teams can be, and you hate to see something like this. I have yet to see long term status of their injuries, and that could really change the fortunes of what many, myself included, thought would be a very good Redbird team this year.

 

This Week: (-17.67, 8.64%) At North Alabama (0-1), Sat 6 PM, ESPN+

 

Illinois State will travel south to take on the UAC’s North Alabama this week. While a game the Redbirds should win this will be a decent early season test. While as the model shows its a game the Redbirds should win handily North Alabama is no slouch. The obvious storyline is watching how Tommy Rittenhouse and Wenkers Wright step up without Mason King, and who on the defense steps up in Amir Abdullah’s absence.

5. (+1) #23 North Dakota (0-1) (4.29)

Last Week: 3-21 Loss At (FBS) Iowa State (1-0)

 

North Dakota’s offense struggled against a very good Iowa State defensive unit, however, in what is a bit of a reverse of years prior their defense played fairly well. They did a great job of playing bend but don’t break defense and only gave up 21 points despite surrendering 353 yards. To circle back to the offense it wasn’t all doom and gloom either as they were over 50% on 3rd down and did have some success at times. UND showed they do have a good bit more promise than what people thought in the preseason and have been getting some love this week as a result.

 

This week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (+3.43, 40.28%) Vs #4 Montana (1-0), Sat 6PM Midco(or Midco2 pending location)/ESPN+

 

My game of the week will feature the defending runner ups, who we talked about during the Missouri State recap, traveling to the Alerus Center. Despite the disparity in rankings I think this will be a very good game and the model tends to agree. Montana will have to play better than they did last week especially at UND where the Fighting Hawks always tend to play a lot better than they do on the road even comparatively to most teams. On the UND side some of those flashes on their offense last week will have to produce against a very good Montana defense if they are going to pull the upset off.

 

4. (+2)  #6 South Dakota (1-0) (4.61)

Last Week: 45-3 Win Vs Northern State

 

We did not learn a whole lot about the Yotes last week as they did what a good FCS team should do against a below average D2 team and handled them easily then coasted.

 

This Week: (+22.31, 4.13%) At (FBS) Wisconsin (1-0), Sat 2:30 PM, FS1

 

The Yotes will travel to Camp Randall to take on a Wisconsin team, that while a heavy favorite, did not look overly impressive last week not being able to pull away from Western Michigan until late. And if we’re being honest Western Michigan is probably not all that much, if at all better than the Yotes. This will be the first real test for the new look Yotes front 7, and while the Wisconsin line and backs are not as impressive as years past it is still Wisconsin and should be a big test. If they can slow them down and get some mistake free football out of Aidan Bouman the Yotes will have a shot at this one.

3. #10 Southern Illinois (0-1) (4.67)

Last Week: 13-41 Loss at (FBS) BYU (1-0)

 

I know we try not to put too much stock into FBS game but this was a pretty poor showing by the Salukis. Their offense looked anemic. Both DJ Williams and Hunter Simmons got playing time at QB and as predicted preseason Williams looked much better of the two, however he was much more effective with his feet than with his arm which will not be sustainable especially in a physical league like the Valley. Elsewhere offensively their transfers they were planning on producing did not, but once again I won’t overreact too much to a game against a solid FBS foe. Defensively it was a burn the tape game for the dogs so we won’t even touch on much there.

 

This Week: (-6.14, 66.91) At Austin Peay (0-1), Sat 6 PM, ESPN+

 

This will be a game between two teams coming off of big losses against FBS foes. This will be our first real look at what both teams could look like as well. For SIU I want to see DJ Williams step up in terms of efficiency and only rely on his legs when he has too. Elsewhere on the offense they need to have some playmakers emerge to help shoulder the load. Defensively there were a lot of questions after losing some of the guys they lost last year, like PJ Jules, if they don’t lock the Governors down those concerns are only going to get louder.

 

2. #2 North Dakota State (0-1) (6.15)

Last Week: 26-31 Loss At (FBS) Colorado

 

In what was one of the most watched and talked about games in all of college football last week the Bison came up just short. The Bison offense looked excellent, especially Cam Miller and I thought Bryce Lance and Raja Nelson flashed really well in the pass game. Defensively the Bison front 7 looked good as ever, but the backend struggled. Granted they aren’t going to have to play Jimmy Horn and Travis Hunter every week, or really anyone of that caliber the rest of the season. However, I do think it is something to watch with Cole Wisniewski expected to miss extended time.

 

This Week: (-33.21, 98.88%) Vs Tennessee State (1-0), Sat 2:30 PM, WDAY(ABC ND)/ESPN+

 

The Bison will host Tennessee State this week. Tennessee State is a program that everyone keeps expecting to turn the corner and they just don’t. This is the first half of a home and home that really was scheduled to give the Bison a chance to play in the Tennessee Titan’s Nissan Stadium. The Bison will have a chance to improve on their film form last week in a game they should handle business in easily.

1. #1 South Dakota State (6.78)

Last Week: 20-44 Loss At #16 (FBS) Oklahoma State

 

As always I’ll keep my Jacks reviews and previews brief due to the plethora of other Jacks content we have here at JI. I thought this game wasn’t quite as lopsided as the score showed, but I also thought it was apparent the Pokes were the better and deeper team. I’m looking forward to seeing how they improve this week.

This week: (-23.39, 96.04%) Vs #12 Incarnate Word (1-0), 6 PM Sat, Midco(or Midco2 pending region)/ESPN+

 

Despite what the lines show, this Incarnate Word team is very talented. This is going to be a really good test for the Jacks to bounce back. I think this is the perfect recipe for a get right game. A game against a good opponent, but one you should win if you handle business.

 

Go Jacks!

 

Alex