Welcome to week 4. We are really starting to see 4 tiers of teams emerge in the conference. The front runners as expected, The Jacks and the Bison. The contenders, UND, USD, and SIU. The teams who are likely to end on the playoff bubble, Mo State (who’s playoff ineligible just to keep it straight), Illinois State, Youngstown State, and Northern Iowa.Then the have nots Murray State and Indiana State. We have one last week of non conference play then the race will really start moving and shaking! Let’s get to the results and games.
- (-1) Indiana State (1-2, 0-0) (1.302 conf wins)
Last week: 24-13 Win vs Dayton (1-1)
Dayton almost, and should’ve stolen one here. I’m sure most of you have seen the viral stat by now, but Dayton outgained Indiana State 326 to 92 and in a total anomaly still lost by 2 scores. It was a horrible performance for Indiana State offensively as they went 0 for 11 on 3rd downs. Horrible. On the positive side the Indiana State offense was very stout taking the ball away twice and LB Garret Ollendieck getting some love from the national media. He had 16 solo tkls and scored a TD on a fumble recovery. He is also currently leading the entire MVFC in solo tkls at 36. The trees although looking good defensively last week have a lot to work on going into their bye and conference play.
This Week: Bye
- (+1) Murray State (1-2, 0-0) (1.304)
Last Week: Win 59-8 Vs Mississippi Valley State (0-3):
It finally all came together for the Racers even if it was against arguably the worst Division 1 football team around the last 3-5 years. They contended with the Delta Devils soundly on both sides of the ball and will hopefully be able to carry some momentum into the rest of the season.
This Week: Bye
- #25 Northern Iowa (2-1, 0-0) (3.400)
Last Week: 34-7 Loss at #22 (FBS) Nebraska
Honestly despite the large differential UNI hung around longer than I thought they would in this one. While never truly a threat to pull out a win in this one they did enough to keep Nebraska honest for most of the game. This was also arguably the most balanced UNI’s offense has looked. They registered a modest 139 yards against a Nebraska team that had given up very few ground yards this year. Their 162 passing yards was not super impressive, but it was the most they have put up this year against by far the best defense they have played. Defensively they were bullied most of the day, but that was not entirely unexpected.
This Week: (+5.33, 35.56%) At (FBS) Hawaii (1-2), Sat 11 PM, Spectrum Sports (PPV)
The Panthers will make the long flight to Hawaii to take on the Warriors this Saturday. Although Hawaii is not great this will still be a tough challenge for the Panthers. This is obviously some of the toughest travel you can take in college football and the Panthers have yet to play a complete game this season. I won’t be completely shocked to see UNI pull an upset, but I also wouldn’t bank on it. If they do it will be because they control the line of scrimmage. UNI has shown that they are looking to be a big ground and pound team this year and Hawaii has struggled to run the ball which could allow the UNI defense to capitalize off their one dimensional offense.
- (-2) Youngstown State (1-2, 0-0) (3.592)
Last Week: Lost 28-25 Vs Duquesne
This was a team Youngstown beat in the playoffs handily last year and they clearly did not handle things the same way this go round. In fact the game was not as close as the score as Duquesne scored a touchdown late to ice it at 28-17 before the Penguins scored a garbage time TD late to make it look more respectable. I think it is officially time to start looking at the issues on the Penguin offense. Tyshon King has not been who he was last year. They are not feeding the ball to Max Tomczak like they need to, and Beau Brungard has looked every bit of a freshman. Defensively they have been serviceable, but without any of their own fire power to keep the defense off the field and put pressure on opposing offenses it is going to be a tough out for them.
This Week: (+23.44, 04.40%) At (FBS) Pittsburgh (3-0), Sat 2:30 PM, ACCN
Out of the pan and into the fire this week for Youngstown. After struggling against one Pittsburgh area team, the Penguins will travel to THE Pittsburgh team. The Panthers are off to a hot 3-0 start after two close wins in rivalry games the last two weeks. This is a game Youngstown is really going to have to buck up for if they want to make it a game. Ultimately they are probably just going to want to get in and out with no major injuries.
- #17 Illinois State (2-1, 0-0) (3.661)
Last Week:Won 51-34 Vs Western Illinois (0-3)
This game took a little longer than I thought it would for the Redbirds to separate themselves even with some of their major injuries. The Redbird offense rolled right along behind Tommy Rittenhouse and Wenkers Wright, however, the defense did struggle a little without Abdullah. I think you have to be encouraged by the Redbirds being able to finally pull away in the end, but I think this one was ultimately a little closer than what the Illinois State faithful would’ve liked to see.
This Week: (-14.81, 84.85%) Vs Eastern Illinois (1-2), Sat 6 PM, Marquee Sports/ESPN+:
This will be an interesting matchup for Illinois State. This is a rivalry game, and the Panthers stole one from the Redbirds late last year and quite possibly took them out of a playoff spot. In this one I’m looking to see the Redbirds defense get back on track especially if Abduallh can go. The Eastern Illinois offense has not been good this year and if the Redbirds can lean on their own established offensive playmakers, they can get up early and force the Panthers to chase. That will also help alleviate some of the pressure off of the defense.
- (+2) Missouri State (1-2, 0-0) (3.682)
Last Week: Won 28-14 Vs Lindenwood
Missouri State had a really good week last week. They played their most complete game of the season looking very balanced on offense. While their defense gave up modest gross yardage at 328 total yards, 3 picks and no giveaways helped them only surrender 14 points. I still think they have some work to do on their lines before Valley play starts, but this was a good starting point.
This Week: (+1.97, 45.73%) At UT-Martin (1-2), Sat 6 PM, ESPN+
.This will be an interesting one. The Bears and Skyhawks have met a few times over the last few years both in the regular season and playoffs and all of the games have been close. I feel like Missouri State has the better high end skill players but UT Martin is the complete team. If the Missouri State squad that showed up last week they will have a really good chance in this one as they look to springboard into their last season of Valley play.
- (-1) #7 Southern Illinois (2-1, 0-0) (4.690)
Last Week: Win Vs # 15 Incarnate Word (1-2) 35-28
Southern Illinois came out firing in the first half taking a 35-14 lead into half time, but then would have to hold the rest of the way forcing UIW’s Zach Calzada to take 2 grounding penalties, a short completion, and an incomplete hail mary on the last series after he got the Cardinals into the Saluki red zone. This was a hard fought win against a good team even if SIU had to hang on late, once again relying on their defense and pass rush in a critical moment to do so. The other big story out of this one was QB DJ Williams leaving the game with an injury to his throwing hand. More on that in the War for the Wheel Preview.
This week: *Game of The Week* (-10.02, 75.56%) Vs #21 Southeast Missouri “The War for The Wheel”, 6 PM Sat, ESPN+
I’ll start off briefly by saying this is one of my favorite rivalries in all of college football, not just the FCS. Who doesn’t love a trophy game, especially one with a cool and unique history? For brevity’s sake and not repeating myself from last year I won’t go fully into the details again but you can find them in last year’s write up on this game here:
https://jackrabbitillustrated.com/mvfc-by-the-numbers-week-3-preview/
The last two year’s the game has come down to the last possession and been won in the closing seconds by the away team. As stated SIU QB DJ Williams left last week’s game late with an apparent hand injury. Well, Coach Nick Hill came out this week and said Williams will require surgery and that there is no apparent timeline for his return. That will hand the job over to RS-Jr Hunter Simmons who will make his first career start. Williams was leading the SIU offense both in passing and rushing so this is a huge loss for them. Simmons is a decent pocket passer but does not have the legs, improvisation ability, or big play ability that the Salukis had been relying on heavily for offense so far this year. Someone in the RB room for the Salukis is going to have to step up in a big way for this one. The other intriguing match up in this one is 6th year senior QB PAxton DeLaurent leading a very explosive SEMO offense against a great SIU defense. UIW’s Zach Calzada was able to find some plays, but the Saluki defense stepped up and stopped him when it counted. They are going to need another big performance out of the Saluki defense this week for their hobbled offense to lean on.
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- (-1) #6 South Dakota (1-1, 0-0) (4.690)
Last Week: No Contest At Portland State (0-2)
Please make sure you and your children are up to date with your Tdap shots. (This game was canceled due to a Whooping Cough outbreak among the Portland State football team. No I am not kidding.)
This Week: (-28.33, 99.93%) VS Drake (1-0), Sat 1 PM, Midco SN(or Midco 2 pending location)/ESPN+
Drake has had a game of their own canceled due to weather and an upset win over Eastern Washington. However, this is the same Drake still that lost by a combined 120 plus points to MVFC foes even if they did win the Pioneer League. The Yotes should be able to walk away with this one easily.
- (+2) #10 North Dakota (2-1, 0-0) (4.829)
Last Week: 52-28 Win Vs Idaho State (1-2)
People were worried about the Fighting Hawks potentially having a let down game after their big win against Montana, but there was none to be had. This was a very complete performance by the Fighting Hawks. Idaho State, while looking to be improved this year, is still looking like they are going to be a bottom half Big Sky team and UND dispatched them with ease. UND is early on looking like they just might actually be a MVFC and serious postseason contender this season.
This Week: (-26.75, 98.42%) At San Diego (2-0), Sat 1 PM, Midco SN(or Midco 2 pending location)/ESPN+
San Diego is another hot Pioneer League team starting out the year with an upset of Cal Poly, but I look for UND to roll easily in this one especially in the Alerus.
- #2 North Dakota State (2-1, 0-0) (6.262)
Last Week: Won 35-30 At East Tennessee State
That freaking golden horseshoe rears its head again. The Bison were down 12 with 2 min and change and had just got the ball back. A pair of impressive Cam Miller drives with a miracle of an onside kick in between (it bounced off an ETSU player) and the Bison grabbed victory from the Jaws of defeat. On the positives from this one the Bison offense, specifically their WR corps is really starting to gel together. On the negatives the issues that permeated the Bison defense last year do not seem to have disappeared and have only been exacerbated by the absence of Cole Wisnieski. While the front 7 has played fairly solid the missed tackles and breakdowns in the secondary continue to haunt the Bison defense.
This Week: (-26.90, 97.04%) Vs Towson (1-2), Sat 1 PM, WDAY(ABC ND)/ESPN+
Towson is coming into Fargo off a near upset of conference rival #5 Villanova. However, I think after the poor performance last week I think the Bison will be out to prove a point. Towson is just going to be too undersized and overmatched in this one.
- #1 South Dakota State (2-1, 0-0) (6.589)
Last Week: Won 24-7 Vs Augustana (D2)
This was a disappointing performance, specifically from the offense. A win is a win, but this one left a lot to be desired.
This week: (-26.25, 97.60%) At Southeastern Louisiana (1-2), 6 PM Sat, ESPN+
The Jacks are going to end their OOC schedule in Hammond at the famed Strawberry Stadium against SLU. This will be a decent Southland foe, but I really look for the Jacks to respond in this one and play their first complete game of the season headed into improvement week.
Go Jacks!
Alex
