We’ve made it to conference play. As many predicted to start the year it appears it is going to come down to the Dakotas, with UND being a bit of a surprise. SIU has fallen back to the pack a bit coming off their loss in the war for the wheel while Missouri State has quietly impressed. Illinois State as many predicted looks to be poised to finally get back to the playoffs and Youngstown has been a major disappointment. The bottom 3 schools are settling into about where we thought they would. As said last week as these conference games start we will really start to see some jostling and shaking in our race here! One last housekeeping point before we get into the previews, reminder for conference games there will be one preview under the higher ranked team in the conference race. Now let’s get to the recaps and previews!
- (-1) Murray State (1-2, 0-0) (1.216 conf wins)
Last week: Bye
This Week: (+20.34, 6.45%) At #9 North Dakota (3-1, 0-0), 1 PM Sat, MidcoSN/ESPN+
See North Dakota for preview.
- (+1) Indiana State (1-2, 0-0) (1.307)
Last Week: Bye
This Week: (-9.64, 73.71%) Vs Houston Christian (1-3), 12PM Sat, ESPN+
While the model thinks the Sycamores will handily win their second game of the year I think this one could be a bit tricky. We do not know a ton about the Huskies of Houston CVS, I mean Christian, University. The Sycamores played a subpar EIU team close and barely beat a Pioneer League team in Dayton. Whereas, HCU has played two FBS foes, blown out an NAIA opponent, and played somewhat convincingly against a ranked Tarleton State team. If the Trees want to win convincingly look for a big game from QB Elijah Owens. He leads them in both rushing and passing so far this year.
- Northern Iowa (2-2, 0-0) (2.813)
Last Week: 36-7 Loss at (FBS) Hawaii
Last week the Panthers lost big to an FBS team but played that team a little closer than what the score might tell you that game was. This was not the case this week. The Panthers flew all the way to the Aloha state to suffer a thrashing at the hands of Hawaii. The Panthers only gained just shy of 200 yards of total offense to the Warriors’ 538. One of the few bright spots for the Panthers was the two picks their secondary came down with. I know some of it was beyond their control, and this is where most thought they would be record wise, however, UNI cannot be thrilled with how their year has started when you put on the film.
This Week: Bye
- Youngstown State (1-3, 0-0) (3.115)
Last Week: Lost 73-17 At (FBS) Pittsburgh
I don’t think even the most diehard Penguin fan thought this one was going to be close, but man this was absolutely brutal. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi talked leading up to this one how it was going to be personal for him as his dad was fired by YSU prior to the Penguins hiring Tressel, and he was not kidding. Even late in the game he didn’t seem to have any desire to call off the dogs throwing deep balls and being in no hurry to run out the clock. Beau Brungard put up a respectable game, but this was a brutal performance for the Penguins as a whole even considering the opponent in what has overall been a very disappointing start to the season.
This Week: (+6.34, 34.33%) At Missouri State (2-2, 0-0), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+
See Missouri State for preview.
- (-1) Missouri State (2-2, 0-0) (4.047)
Last Week:Won 31-24 At Tennesse Martin (1-3)
The final chapter in the mini rivalry between the Bears and the Skyhawks has finally come to a close.The Bears still cannot run the football to save their lives, but when Jacob Clarke goes for 388 and 3 TDs do you really need to? This was also the most complete the Bear defense has looked in some time holding UT Martin to just 303 total yards and forcing and recovering 2 fumbles. I still think the Bears are going to need to be able to run the ball once conference play starts, especially in the Valley but all their other pieces are coming together nicely if they are indeed going to try to make one last pass at the conference championship.
This Week: (-6.38, 65.67%) Vs Youngstown State (1-3, 0-0), Sat 2 PM, ESPN+:
This feels like a huge game for both teams very early on in the conference slate. With the Penguins out of conference struggles they are going to have to win all their toss up games plus the ones they should if they are even going to think about playoffs. On the other side Missouri State looked better in the OOC than they have in some time, and if they are serious about contending for the Valley this year they are going to have to come out firing. The team that wins this game will be the one that is more consistent on offense. While that doesn’t seem like groundbreaking analysis, allow me to explain. Youngstown’s offense has shown some promise this year but has been very clunky for large stretches so far this season. On the other side Missouri State has thrown the ball well, but have been extremely poor at being able to run it. Both defenses have shown flashes but have not been consistent, especially Youngstown’s. Whichever team can clean up their execution should be able to take care of those flaws.
- (+1) #18 Illinois State (3-1, 0-0) (4.226)
Last Week: Won 31-7 Vs Eastern Illinois
Great team win in a rivalry game to avenge last year’s frustrating loss for the Redbirds. This was by far the best Tommy Rittenhouse has looked putting up a stat line of 17-22 for 228 and 3 scores, and finally getting on the same page with star WR Daniel Sobkowicz to the tune of 8-93 and 2 TD. RB Wenkers Wright had a career day rushing for 150 and a score on 25 carries. Defensively even without Amir Abdulah in the line up the Redbird defense was stifling. This was a complete performance for Illinois State and emblematic of the dangerous team a lot of people thought they could be back when talking about them this preseason.
This Week: *Game of the Week* (+10.76, 21.46%) Vs #2 North Dakota State, Sat 2 PM, ESPN+
See North Dakota State.
- #17 Southern Illinois (2-2, 0-0) (4.359)
Last Week: Loss Vs #13 Southeast Missouri State (3-1) 38-21
The Saluki offense really struggled without DJ Williams, but I still think Hunter Simmons played a decent game. Before we get too far I should also add that this game was a little closer than the score indicated as SEMO QB Paxton DeLaurent completely took over the 4th Quarter leading the Redhawks to outscore the Salukis 14-0. Coming back to what I was saying though I think Hunter Simmons played well and he put up monster gross yardage through the air throwing it for 341. However, what Simmons cannot do is improvise like Williams could and it really is showing up in the rush yardage from this game. Without Williams’ ability to scramble, or even be an intentional runner between the tackles, SIU only mustered 62 gross ground yards in this one. As for the Saluki defense’s part they held well for 3 quarters and overall I’d rate their performance as fair. I think once we get to the end of the season we are going to look back at this SEMO offense as a dominant one.
This week: (+9.03, 31.21%) At #5 South Dakota (2-1, 0-0), 1 PM Sat, Midco2/ESPN+
See South Dakota.
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- (-1) #9 North Dakota (3-1, 0-0) (4.774)
Last Week: Won 41-24 Vs San Diego (2-1)
The Fighting Hawks kind of played with their food a little in this one going into halftime down 14-10, but they flipped the switch in the second half and ultimately ran away with it as predicted. Simon Romfo still wasn’t overly impressive, but with the supporting cast of Bo Belquist, Gaven Ziebarth, et al I don’t know that he’s going to have to be. He is just going to need to keep improving as the season draws on, and he will have the Fighting Hawks as a serious playoff contender come November.
This Week: (-20.34, 93.56%) Vs Murray State (1-2, 0-0), 1 PM Sat, Midco/ESPN+
A game between arguably the hottest team in the FCS and a team trying to find their identity. I know UND let an inferior opponent hang around last week, but even if they do so again this week this one won’t be close. I expect the Fighting Hawks to roll especially in the Alerus. The big thing to watch in this one will be if UND can get their passing offense going a little bit. On the Murray State side as is going to be the case for much of this year, what flashes can they show that they are able to build upon?
- (+1) #5 South Dakota (2-1, 0-0) (5.137)
Last Week: 42-3 Win Vs Drake (1-1, 0-0)
Not much to say here. USD handled their business against a team they were predicted to do so against and did it well in all 3 phases. Their playmakers looked good on offense. Keyondray Jones-Logan housed another kickoff. The defense held Drake to 3 points and made tough sledding for them all day.
This Week: (-9.03, 68.79%) Vs #17 Southern Illinois (2-2, 0-0), Sat 1 PM, Midco 2/ESPN+
I strongly considered making this game of the week, but ultimately decided I’d go with the last one we’ll talk about here. With that said this is a huge early conference slate game for both teams. What I’m looking for in this one is, can USD’s new high powered offense continue to click against a very good defense? How does Tristan Simmons hold up against a very good Yote defense? Lastly, can Southern get their ground game going this week? That last one I think is the key. If SIU can be balanced their defense will do enough to keep them in it the whole way, but if they allow themselves to get too one dimensional I fully expect the USD defense to make them pay, and this will get away from the Salukis by the middle of the 3rd Quarter.
- #2 North Dakota State (3-1, 0-0) (6.173)
Last Week: Won 41-21 Vs Towson
NDSU jumped out early in this one, kind of let Towson creep back in, and then slammed the door shut late to cruise to a comfortable lead. Cam Miller was phenomenal as he has been all this season and he looks exactly how you’d hope your 6th year starter at QB would look, and Marty Brown and Barikka Kpeanu look poised to lead the RB room down the stretch playing well last Saturday as well. The big question for the Bison is the tackling in the secondary. The front 7 has played solid, but they seem to give up gashers whenever a back makes it to the second level.
This Week: (-10.76, 78.54%) *GAME OF THE WEEK* At #18 Illinois State (3-1, 0-0), Sat 2 PM, ESPN+
The reason I picked this as game of the week is I think this will be a tighter game than the one in Vermillion. As we always say “styles make fights” and I really feel that the athletes Illinois State has in Daniel Sobkowicz at WR and Wenkers Wright at RB can test some of the perceived weaknesses in the Bison defense especially with the way Tommy Rittenhouse has been distributing the football the last few weeks. On the flip side outside of SDSU this just might be the toughest defense the Bison will play this year, even without Amir Abdullah. It will still be a huge task to slow down Cam Miller the way he is playing to start this season, but that’s why I think this one will be so fun. I think the Bison will pull out a close one, but nothing from a defensive struggle to a shootout would shock me here. I really think this is going to be a fun one.
- #1 South Dakota State (3-1, 0-0) (6.833)
Last Week: Won 41-0 At Southeastern Louisiana (1-3)
Although the passing offense still looks a little clunky, the rush offense excelled behind the 605 Hogs, Amar Johnson, and National Offensive Player of the Week Kirby Vrohees. Couple that with a vintage performance by the Jackrabbit defense and special teams, and it was still a very enjoyable night of football.
This week: Bye
It’s bye week for the Jacks so Jacks fans take in some football from elsewhere in the Valley and FCS as a whole and get those last minute fall projects done so you can lock into the season for the rest of the year!
Go Jacks!
Alex
