Well the first week of conference play was certainly a big one. There was a ton to talk about from the champs handling business while making it look easy against another top 15 team to the #2 teams in the country going down against an unranked foe. There were also some other great games which we will discuss as we go here.

One week of conference games down and now we already have half the league no longer in control of their own destiny. Yes that’s just math but it also allows you to really grasp how big every game in conference play really is. You big mover was USD launching up 5 spots off their massive upset of NDSU. Murray State and SIU handled their business and both moved up a spot a piece. The big loser was North Dakota dropping 2 after getting smacked in the mouth by SDSU. NDSU, Indiana State, Youngstown State, and Missouri State all lost a spot due to their losses. Illinois State also lost a spot by virtue of USD passing them.

12.  Western Illinois (0.70, 0.70) (0-4, 0-1 actual)

Easiest Game Remaining: @ Indiana State (0-4, 0-1) (+5.5, 36.45%) Week 11

Toughest Game Remaining : @ #7 NDSU (3-1, 0-1) (+36, 0.4%) Week 8

Last Week: Bye

This Week: Vs #16 UND (2-2, 0-1) (+25.5, 4.89%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/7, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+

11. (-1) Indiana State (1.13, 1.13) (0-4, 0-1)

Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-4, 0-1) (-5.5, 63.55%) Week 11

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #6 SIU (4-0, 1-0) (+28, 97.84%) Week 12

Last Week: Lost @ Murray State (2-2, 1-0) 28-30

Cade Chambers finally saw the field in 2023. The returning MVFC newcomer of the year looked a little rusty as he went 15-27, 159 yds, 1 TD and a very unfortunate pick 6 at the start the 2nd half that really is what dug the hole that the trees just couldn’t climb out of. If there was one bright spot it is that RB Piez Lawrence seems to be a guy Indiana State could lean on going forward. He had 203 yds off 29 carries and scored 3 times including 2 20+ yd breakaway runs in the 3rd and 4th Quarter to cut the deficit to 2. After the teams traded TDs the Sycamores found themselves down 9 with 8 min to play. They would get 3 more drives including a last gasp with less than a min left, but could only come up with 7 on the first of those 3 drives and came up short.

This is probably the best Indiana State has looked this year and they still lost to a really bad Murray State team. Cade Chambers I think does give them their best chance to win, but it appears he still is not quite fully ready coming off his injury. Also after disappointing all year Justin Dinka did not dress this week, which it is hard to find any if all reporting on what is going on behind the scenes in Terre Haute, but leads me to believe that he is not healthy either. Now that Lawerence has had a breakout game, maybe they will feel comfortable enough to shut down Dinka to rest him. Defensively it was honestly not a bad effort from the Sycamore D. The back breaking pick 6 and ST putting them in bad spots field position wise were the story.

This Week: Vs RV UNI (2-2, 1-0) (+18.5, 7.97%), 6 PM CST Sat 10/7, ESPN+

10. (+1)  Murray State (2.54, 1.54) (2-2, 1-0)

Easiest Game Remaining: RV Youngstown State (2-2, 1-0) (+14.5, 16.31%) Week 12

Toughest Game Remaining: @ #7 NDSU (3-1, 0-1) (+33.5, 0.4%) Week 9

Last Week: Win Vs Indiana State (0-4, 0-1) 30-28

It was parents weekend which led to a very respectable 13k plus to file into Stewart Stadium. This was a bit of an odd one and very much a case of “they don’t ask how they ask how many” for the Racers. Despite being outgained by almost 150 yards, losing the TOP battle by almost 10 min, having nearly 3x the penalty yards, and half the 1st downs the Racers were able to capitalize off a few key plays in the form of a safety, a pick 6, and a missed FG to win the game. They took advantage of some short fields in the kick games and were efficient with the opportunities they had. DJ Williams was a good not great 11-17 157 yd and 2TD. I don’t know that it really gets much better than this from here as the Racers are 2 TD dogs from here on out, so enjoy this one Racer fans.

This Week: @ #15 South Dakota (3-1, 1-0) (+20.5, 5.6%), 2 PM CST Sat 10/7, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+

9. (-1) Missouri State (4.58, 3.58) (1-3, 0-1)

Easiest Game Remaining: Western Illinois (0-4, 0-1) (-17, 87.98%) Week 7

Toughest Game Remaining: @ #1 South Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) (+22.5, 5.88%) Week 12

Last Week: Lost @ #6 SIU (4-0, 1-0) 20-33

This was not a bad showing at all from the Bears. They kept it close for 3 quarters despite Jacob Clark leaving the game with an injury late in the second, and honestly back up Jordan Pachot filled in the 2nd half fairly well going 14-21, 176 yds and a TD. The Bears moved the ball really well with both QBs in the game however, the oline play continues to be a problem. They finished with net 31 rush yards on 27 carries including sacks. They had 82 yards on 20 carries on non sack plays. Defensively it was not a great showing. They gave up scores on 6/9 meaningful drives and 407 total yards. This was a very good SIU team that Missouri State played close. They still have to answer some questions on both lines and the defense in general, but this was a good showing for the team in the midst of a rebuild.

This Week: Vs #7 NDSU (3-1, 0-1) (+11.5, 22.16%), 2 PM CST Sat 10/7, ESPN+

 8. (-1) RV Youngstown State (5.79, 3.79) (2-2, 0-1)

Easiest Game Remaining: @ Indiana State (0-4, 0-1) (-14.5, 84.91%) Week 10

Toughest Game Remaining: #1 South Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) (+13, 13.18%) Week 11

Last Week: Loss @ RV UNI (2-2, 1-0) 41-44

This was never going to be an easy game for the Penguins. They looked like they were about to be out of it down 10 until a blocked punt in the 3rd allowed them to get right back in it. From there this game kind of turned on its head as the Penguins would score on a pair of back to back drives while forcing a panther punt between to take a 4 point lead. They would then intercept a Theo Day pass which looked like it had them in a spot to take over the game until on the ensuing drive they would fail to be able to convert a 4th and 1 early in the 4th from the red zone. From there UNI would score on back to back drives of their own while forcing a Penguin punt in between including a drive kept alive by a false start on 4th and 1 to go back ahead by 10. From there on out the teams would trade TD drives back and forth until YSU was forced to try an onside kick with about a minute left down 3 and failed which gave us the final score.

As far as actual analysis of how the team looked in this game the YSU passing offense looked fantastic and despite forcing an interception the defense looked really suspect on the back end. The rushing defense was not great either but it seemed like apart from the one pick Day pretty much could pick and choose where he was going to go with the football. Mitch Davidson played great (30-40, 332 yds 3 TD 1 INT) but the rushing offense was not able to do enough especially on the key back to back 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1 in the late 3rd/early 4th. They only had 67 yards on rushes that weren’t from Davidson making plays with his legs.

This Week: Vs #6 SIU (4-0, 1-0) (+5.5, 36.14%), 5 PM CST Sat 10-7, ESPN+

7. (-1)  Illinois State (6.34, 4.34) (3-1, 1-0)

Easiest Game Remaining: Indiana State (0-4, 0-1) (-18, 92.09%) Week 7

Toughest Game Remaining: #1 South Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) (+19, 7.96%) Week 6

Last Week: Bye

This Week: Vs #1 South Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) (+19, 7.96%), 6 PM CST Sat 10/7, Marquee Sports Net/ESPN+

6. (-2) #16 North Dakota (6.82, 4.82) (2-2, 0-1)

Easiest Remaining Game: Indiana State (0-4, 0-1) (-22.5, 95.31%) Week 

Toughest Remaining Game: #7 North Dakota State (3-1, 0-1) (+7.5, 29.89%) Week 7

Last Week: Lost @ #1 South Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) 21-42

Not the week the Fighting Hawks wanted. They were pushed around in the trenches on both sides of the ball, did not possess the ball much and were forced to play catch up pretty well all game. Schuester and Ziebarth were both held to their lowest totals and averages of the season as even when the Hawks did have the ball in the first 3 quarters they couldn’t get much going. UND is not a bad team by any means and will probably be in the playoffs but this shows how much farther they have to go.

This Week: @ Western Illinois (0-4, 0-1) (-25.5, 95.11%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/7, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+

5. RV Northern Iowa (6.09, 5.09) (2-2, 1-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-4, 0-1) (-27, 96.55%) Week 10

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) (+17.5, 11.20%) Week 7

Last Week: Won Vs RV Youngstown State (2-2, 0-1) 44-41

If you want the game flow go back to the YSU write up, as far as the UNI specific analysis this was the most complete the Panther offense has looked. Theo Day was co-offensive player of the week for his performance going 21/29 337 yds 4 TDs and 1 INT. Although he did have the one pick it was really his only bad miss on the day. The rush offense even showed up on Saturday led by Tyjahree Edwards amassing 124 yds and 1 TD on 21 carries.

Defensively the rush defense continues to look solid only giving up 85 yds on the day, however, the backend continues to be a bit suspect for everyone back there except Woo Governor. Don’t get me wrong this was a big win for a team desperately in need of one, but there are still some answers to be had in Cedar Falls.

This Week: @ Indiana State (0-4, 0-1) (-18.5, 92.03%), 6 PM CST Sat 10/7, ESPN+

4. (+5) #15 South Dakota (7.17, 5.17) (3-1, 1-0)

Easiest Game Remaining: Murray State (2-2, 1-0) (-20.5, 94.4%) Week 6 

Toughest Game Remaining:  #1 South Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) (+16.5, 11.06%) Week 5

Last Week: Win @ #7 NDSU (3-1, 0-1) 24-19

What a game for the Yotes. They did what only the Jacks had been able to do previously among current FCS teams and won their second game in the FargoDome. It was a totally complete game as they were led by co offensive player of the week Carter Bell and defensive player of the week Dennis Shorter. Bell was by far the difference maker for the Yotes as 14 of their 24 points came on 2 of his 5 catches (for 124 yds). One was a screen play he broke one tackle and turned on the afterburners to house it from 50 yards out and the other was one where he snuck behind the coverage on a deep over for another 50+ yard strike. Aidan Bouman was extremely efficient in the first half going 10/11 and in the second half wasn’t asked to do a whole lot. While the rush attack was not dominant it did what it needed to do in a game like this. Kept the Bison honest and did just enough to play keep away in the 2nd half ultimately eating clock and being  what they leaned on to get them in range of the game clinching FG.

Defensively Shorter had a key pick and few other PBUs to lead a Yote defense that did a fantastic front of bending but not breaking. The Bison out gained the Yotes and had more TOP but the Yote D forced 2 FGs on 4 red zone drives and that combined with the Shorter pick was the true difference in this one when combined with the Bell explosive plays. 

This Week : Vs Murray State (2-2, 1-0) (-20.5, 94.4%), 2 PM CST Sat 10/7, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+

3. (-1) #7 North Dakota State  (8.20, 5.20) (3-1, 0-1)

Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-4, 0-1) (-38, 99.6%) Week 8

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (4-0, 1-0) (+7.5, 31.96%) Week 10

Last Week: Lost Vs #16 South Dakota (3-1, 0-1) 19-24

To any Bison fans reading this, the sky is not falling. This was a weird game and one that showed a lot of issues but they are all fixable. The biggest problem right now is your offense’s inability to step on the throttle when they need to. If you’re going to average 6:55 (especially when that includes a pick thrown after 5 plays and a 6 play drive ending in a punt) a drive they better end in TDs. Otherwise if you fall behind 2-3 scores like you did here the game is basically over. Yes 2 of the Yotes 3 TDs came on big plays that should’ve been avoided but if you can’t play with tempo the blueprint is set. Find a lead and wait for the Bison to run the clock out themselves. Down 3 scores to open the half and you take a quarter and a half away you have already dug yourself a bigger hole in win probability even though you got 7. Roehl and Entz need to adapt to situational football. Not going into the 2 minute offense until there was under 3 min left and you are down 2 scores was criminally incompetent.

As well as the players themselves Cam Miller is back to playing good not great football. The pick was a pretty bad decision, but overall I think he did enough to win the game with better play calling and adjustments. Cole Payton should just be moved to running back if he’s going to be the leading rusher. Entz said in his presser that the QBs carrying the ball more than the RBs is due to the looks they were getting on read options, but honestly with my watch through I don’t buy that. I didn’t chart or tally the splits but there were a hell of a lot of QB powers and dives called including the infamous ones on 3rd down. Design better plays for your RBs or just lean into what you’re doing. Mathis had another really nice game. They should find ways to get him more involved.

Defensively apart from the 2 big plays they were solid apart from tackling which has been a quiet issue for the Bison for about a year now. However, coming off the UCA game the poor tackling and big plays given up may be a trend of something that can be exploited. Should be an easy fix, but if they don’t address it it will be a huge issue.

This Week: @ Missouri State (1-3, 0-1) (-11.5, 77.84%), 2 PM CST Sat 10/7, ESPN+

2. (+1) #6 Southern Illinois (8.88, 5.88) (4-0, 1-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Indiana State (0-4, 0-1) (-28, 97.84%) Week 12

Toughest Remaining Game: @ #7 North Dakota State (3-1, 0-1) (+7.5, 28.04%) Week 11

Last Week: Won Vs Missouri State (1-3, 0-1) 33-20

Although the Saluki secondary got picked apart a little they did a solid job of preventing that from turning into any kind of major points. Up front as discussed in the Missouri State recap they really locked it down. Offensively we continued to see more balance as they rushed for 124 net yards and Nic Baker continued what I think is a Payton worthy campaign going 26/35 285 YDs and 1 TD while rushing 4 times for an additional 24 yds. Although it was a good game for about 3 quarters the Salukis did what good teams do when given an opportunity and took the opening afforded to them from a 4th quarter strip sack of Jordan Pachot and went on a FG drive to ice the game with 7 min and change left playing lock down defense the rest of the way.

This Week: @ RV Youngstown State (2-2, 0-1) (-5.5, 63.86%), 5 PM CST Sat 10/7, ESPN+

1. #1 South Dakota State  (9.89, 6.89) (4-0, 1-0)

Easiest Remaining Game: Missouri State (1-3, 0-1) (-22.5, 94.12%) Week 12

Toughest Game:  #2 North Dakota State (3-1, 0-1) (-7.5, 68.04%) Week 10

Last Week: Win Vs #15 North Dakota (2-2, 1-0) 42-21

The Jacks did what the #1 team is supposed to do and bullied North Dakota from whistle to whistle. Isaiah Davis led the ground attack that amassed nearly 270 yards with 132 of his own and 3 TDs. Defensively the Jacks held Tommy Schuester, Gaven Ziebarth, and Bo Belquist the Hawks’ 3 statistical leaders to season lows in their respective categories and were on track to hold them to team lows across the board before letting up some garbage time points late. One thing I didn’t personally like that I haven’t seen other people talking about is how we let UND go 3/3 on TDs in the red zone. While it is always great to get off the field we should really strive to be our best when backed against the wall.

This Week:  @ Illinois State (3-1, 1-0), (-19, 92.04%), 6 PM CST Sat 10/7, Marquee Sports Network/ESPN+ 

Game Previews:

#15 UND (2-2, 0-1) @ Western Illinois (0-4, 0-1) (+25.5, 95.11%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/7, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+

I’m more than happy to commend Western for putting up a fight at different points this year, but this one won’t be close. I’m not going to write too much about it as I look for UND to blow the doors off them in a get right game.

RV Northern Iowa (2-2, 1-0) @ Indiana State (0-4, 0-1) (+18.5, 92.03%), 6 PM CST Sat 10/7, ESPN+

Indiana State has been horrible this year. Cade Chambers is finally back and played just ok last week. He might be able to help the trees move the ball some against a lackluster Panther secondary. However, I think they will be too one dimensional to be overly effective. The UNI front 7 has remained the one constant for the Panthers this year and getting Indiana State in obvious pass situations should help their rush not require their secondary to cover as long.

On the other side of the ball UNI moved the ball at will against a good YSU defense last week and I have no reason to expect that they won’t do the same this week against a much worse defense. I think the Panthers will handle business in this one.

Murray State (2-2, 1-0) @ #15 South Dakota (3-1, 1-0) (-20.5, 5.6%), 2 PM CST Sat 10/7, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+

Both teams are coming off a big win, I could maybe see USD starting slow in this one with a little bit of a hangover both figuratively and literally, but when it comes down to brass tax they should be the better team in this one. The Racers are only averaging 21 ppg on offense and this USD defense just might be the best they’ve played outside of maybe P5 Louisville. Like I said USD might stumble out the gate offensively but this Murray State team allows a lot of yards averaging giving up around 220 both through the air and on the ground. Yotes win in front of what will be their 2nd largest crowd of the year.

#7 North Dakota State (3-1, 0-1) @ Missouri State (1-3, 0-1) (+11.5), 2 PM CST Sat 10/7, ESPN+

The model and the official lines are both a lot narrower in this one than I think most people would put them if they had to put it themselves. With Jacob Clark unlikely to go I don’t foresee this being a particularly pleasant afternoon for the Bears. I can’t remember the last time the Bison lost two straight, but I would guess/assume it was 2007/2008? Either way I don’t think that it will happen against a very average Missouri State team down their best player. I don’t mean that as a dig against Jordan Pachot either, I think he played really well last week. It is just a matter of the Bison will be looking to make a statement here, and I don’t think Missouri State is the best team to give them a fight.

#6 SIU (4-0, 1-0) @ RV Youngstown State (2-2, 0-1) (+5.5) 5 PM CST Sat 10/7, ESPN+ *ALEX’S GAME OF THE WEEK*

This is the only game the model likes to be within a score this week and as such it is slated for our game of the week. The Penguins are looking to bounce back in the always tough to play in “Ice Castle” and they’ll have to do it against what still might be one of the hottest teams in the country in SIU. The YSU secondary was picked apart last week by Theo Day and they will have the unfortunate task of going up against another very good QB this week in Nic Baker. When the Penguins released their projected starters on Tuesday it looked like they were maybe moving some guys around in their secondary coming off the poor showing in Cedar Falls so that will be something to keep an eye on. The SIU attack has tended to try to play more balanced lately, but if the Penguin front can contain Ro Elliot and the rest of the SIU rushing attack to keep the passing situations obvious it will help the secondary by letting them not have to peek in the backfield as much. That may have been as much their problem as anything last week. I’ll also be curious to see how they adjust there.

The SIU defense has had some ups and downs this year but overall has been very good about bending but not breaking allowing a lot of yards, but those yards not always equating to a ton of points whether through turnovers or putting the clamps on in the red zone. That is all that really should be required of them this week if Nic Baker can move the ball. If they can keep YSU settling for field goals instead of TDs they should put up enough points of their own to walk away with this one. Although, they did give up quite a bit through the air last week and Mitch Davidson is coming off a very strong performance.

I think this is another game for the Salukis that is close for 3 quarters but they make the plays they have to in order to pull away late. No disrespect to YSU as they are a solid team but SIU is playing at a level right now that few nationally can hang with.

#1 SDSU (4-0, 1-0) @ Illinois State (3-1, 1-0), (+19), 6 PM CST Sat 10/7, Marquee Sports Network/ESPN+ 

Illinois State has moved the ball really well in their 3 wins but those 3 wins were all against teams outside of the top 80 or so. When they played EIU who is a fringe top 25 team they really struggled offensively and in the kick game. Last week the Jacks beautifully picked up the different blitzes and looks the 3-4/multiple defense UND threw at them. Can they do the same against an Illinois State that plays a similar style of defense, but has been far more effective this year?

I think those are the big things this one hinges on. Mason Blakemore has been a great portal get for the Redbirds this season, but in their lone loss against EIU he was limited in his opportunities as the Redbirds were forced to play catch up. Zach Annexstad while putting up some good numbers in that game threw 2 very costly picks including when trying to mount a comeback late. The Redbirds also threw another pick on a trick play gone wrong and coughed it up an additional time. If SDSU can control the flow of the game offensively and make Illinois State chase points it will get them out of what they want to do as far as running their balanced offense like they want. Annexstad is a dang good player, but he will make unforced errors if you create pressure and force him to make throws.

And like I said as of note is ST. Outside of the bad lapses the Jacks had against Montana State it has turned into a strength for them. Illinois State on the other hand missed a FG and an XP in that loss and they have missed an additional 2 XPs on the year. While the kicker that missed the FG against EIU was their longer distance kicker. Their short distance kicker has started the year 2/2, but only hit at 60% last year. He is probably due for a miss.

I think this is a good Illinois State team that will be well coached as a Brock Spack team always is, but I look for the Jacks to impose their will again this week whether that is through the air or on the ground on both sides of the ball.

I don’t know that we are in store for quite as crazy of a week as last, but anything can happen in the MVFC. Thank you as always for taking time out of your busy schedules to read.

Go Jacks!

Alex