Week 7. Apologies beforehand as the individual recaps and previews had to be cut out this week. Blame sick kids, wife, and a busy couple weeks at the day job if you are particularly upset by that. There’s down to 4 teams who control their destiny for the autobid and just as everyone predicted (lots of sarcasm there) Missouri State is one of them! I will take this brief moment to shout out Timothy Rosario of Sports Illustrated/FCS Central. If you’re into the analytics type stuff (assuming so if you’re here) he’s been doing some awesome stuff, and this week released a breakdown of every team and conference offensive and defensive series conversion and success rates. I find it very interesting that even though “the model” is ELO based a lot of the rankings align. That is of particular interest to me as if I had unlimited time and budget I’d love to build a SCR/SR based model instead. Anyhows point is go read Timothy’s stuff, especially this week it’s great.
Other observations around the Valley before I let everyone guide themselves through the games this week, SDSU and NDSU continue to yo-yo together and apart in their collision course for The Marker. Both are heavy favorites this week, and assuming they survive those potential trap games The Marker will not only be nationally televised for the first time (apart from being featured on ESPN’s GameDay in 2019 as host) but for the second time ever it will be #1 vs #2. We will cross that bridge and go far more in depth next week though!
Other top teams, USD hasn’t had the toughest schedule, but they’ve done about all you could ask of them by taking care of everything put in front of them handily. We might not know how good they actually are until they come to Brookings, but for now they look the part and then some.
Illinois State has weathered some injuries and a tough early portion of their schedule to set themselves up well for a first round home game with the 16 seed bracket this year, if not backdoor their way into a first round bye as long as they take care of business.
UND obviously had a tough loss in The Nickel Game last week, but I think overall they and their fans have to be happy with where they are right now. Especially after where most were picking them in preseason.
Although not playoff eligible this year Missouri State has been a pleasant surprise. I’m still not sold on their defense and think their offense is a bit too one dimensional at times. However, they have exceeded expectations and are going to be a tougher out than I think most teams bargained for when playing them this year.
Southern Illinois is easily the disappointment of the Valley this season. Yes the injuries are starting to mount especially since it now looks like they’ll be down to QB3 the rest of the season, but this was still not what most people thought they’d be in for.
Youngstown State has also been a bit of a disappointment this year and look to be in full on rebuild mode along with UNI.
Indiana State and Murray State get to play in the toilet bowl this week and are who they are.
Thanks for reading, Happy Hobo Day to my fellow Jacks fans, and please enjoy the game lines and team charts!
- Murray State (1-4, 0-2) (0.861 conf wins)
Last week: Loss 59-0 Vs #4 South Dakota (4-1, 2-0)
This Week: (+5, 36.55%) At Indiana State (1-4, 0-1), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
- Indiana State (1-4, 0-1) (1.205)
Last Week: Loss 21-14 @ Youngstown State (2-3, 1-1)
This Week: (-5, 59.50%) Vs Murray State (1-4, 0-2), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
- (-1) Northern Iowa (2-3, 0-1) (2.465)
Last Week: 41-3 Loss Vs #1 South Dakota State (4-1, 1-0)
This Week: (+18.57, 9.22%) At #4 South Dakota (4-1, 2-0), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+/Midco2
- (+1) Youngstown State (2-3, 1-1) (2.799)
Last Week: Won 21-14 Vs Indiana State (1-4, 0-1)
This Week: (+26.33, 2.30%) At #1 South Dakota State (4-1, 1-0), 2 PM Sat, Midco/ESPN+
- Southern Illinois (2-4, 0-2) (2.986)
Last Week:Lost 45-10 Vs #16 Illinois State (4-2, 1-1)
This Week: (+15.98, 13.46%) Vs #2 North Dakota State (5-1, 2-0), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+:
- (-1) Missouri State (3-2, 1-0) (4.444)
Last Week: Bye
This Week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (+4.22, 41.05%) At #16 Illinois State (3-2, 1-1), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
- (-1) #9 North Dakota (4-2, 1-1) (4.542)
Last Week: Loss 41-17 At #2 North Dakota State (5-1, 2-0)
This week: Bye
.
- (+2) #16 Illinois State (4-2, 1-1) (5.057)
Last Week: Won 45-10 At Southern Illinois (2-4, 0-2)
This Week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (-4.22, 58.95%) Vs Missouri State (3-2, 1-0), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+
- #4 South Dakota (4-1, 2-0) (5.847)
Last Week: Win 59-0 At Murray State (1-4, 0-2)
This Week: (-18.57, 90.78%) Vs Northern Iowa (2-3, 0-1), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+/Midco2
- #2 North Dakota State (5-1, 2-0) (6.867)
Last Week: Won 41-17 Vs #9 North Dakota (4-2, 1-1)
This Week: (-15.98, 86.54%) At Southern Illinois (2-4, 0-2), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+
- #1 South Dakota State (4-1, 1-0) (6.928)
Last Week: Won 41-3 At Northern Iowa (2-3, 0-1)
This week: (-26.33, 96.91%) Vs Youngstown State (2-3, 1-1), 2 PM Sat, Midco/ESPN+
Happy Hobo Day! Go Jacks!
Alex
