Welcome back. No major changes last week as the games pretty well went chalk. Southern Illinois no longer is in control of their own destiny when it comes to winning the conference and the autobid, but that isn’t completely unexpected after having to travel to Fargo. All eyes will turn to Carbondale this week as North Dakota heads there in a top 10 matchup. Southern Illinois will be looking for a big rebound, and UND will be looking to establish that they are in the same neighborhood as the Jacks and Bison.

 

 

 

As we look at the advanced numbers one big thing sticks out to me. First and foremost, when you look at the league vs national averages, the MVFC is not the hard nosed physical football league that we are accustomed to. The only defenses that are living up to that mantra are NDSU, SDSU, and UND. Dare I saw we are teetering into “Big Fluffy” territory? You can see it when you look at the Offensive vs Defensive plot too. YSU and Illinois State would all be over/up one more tier if they even just fielded an average defense. SIU wouldn’t necessarily jump a tier, bit it is hard to see a future where the defensive issues don’t bite them at some point again.

 

 

10. Murray State (0.563) (0-6, 0-2)

Last Week: Lost 32-46 Vs #11 Illinois State (4-2, 1-1)

Murray showed some fight in this one. They clawed back from being down 21-3 early to cut it down to a 2 core game again at several points in the game. They moved the ball really well on offense as Jim Ogle continues to show some skill. They clearly still have a long way to go defensively, but it was nice to see them play well in at least one phase.

 

This week: (+34.71, 0%) Vs #2 South Dakota State (6-0, 2-0), 6PM Sat, ESPN+

See South Dakota State.

 

9. Indiana State (1.186) (2-4, 0-2)

 

Last Week: Lost 14-19 Vs RV South Dakota (4-3, 2-1)

This one to be honest probably wasn’t as close as the score, but I think Indiana State did a great job of playing bend but don’t break defense. They held a very rush heavy USD offense to 3.7 ypc net rush, and forced USD to settle for field goals 4 times which is what kept this from being the blowout that it probably should have been. Offensively they really only profited off 1 coverage bust and only 1 sustained drive for scores, but one more and we could be having a very different conversation right now. Overall, like I said not probably as close as what the score would tell you, but some high points for an Indiana State team that has been listless without star QB Elijah Owens since week 3.

This Week: (+31.85, 1.23%) Vs #1 North Dakota State (6-0, 2-0), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+/ABC (ND Only)

See North Dakota State.

 

8. Northern Iowa (2.038) (2-4, 0-2)

Last Week: Lost 3-31 At #2 South Dakota State (6-0, 2-0)

 

I thought coming in the Panther front 7 could pose some issues in this one and they did. They limited the Jacks to a net 3.1 yd per carry and had the SDSU offense lost for several series. I’m not just saying this as an SDSU fan, I think this defense has some talent and you can see that above in the advanced numbers. Unfortunately with an offense so putrid it gives the ball away 5 times in a game you are not going to be in or win very many of them.

 

This Week: (+5.09, 31.65%) Vs RV South Dakota (4-3, 2-1), 1 PM Sat, MVFC-TV/ESPN+

See South Dakota.

 

7. RV Youngstown State (3.266) (3-3, 0-2)

 

Last Week: Lost 17-35 At #7 North Dakota (4-2, 2-0)

 

After a strong showing against SDSU the week prior the ‘Guins had a chance to really attempt to kickstart their season, but now instead they are down to essentially no margin for error in their hopes to return to the playoffs. Which is a bummer, because I think this is a highly talented team , but unfortunately they have a schedule this year that is enviable of none by missing none of the MVFC heavy hitters.  When it comes to the game itself, the weak spot all season for the Penguins had been the secondary, but they probably played their best game of the season. However, outside of that unit and Beau Brungard who was spectacular as always the rest of the team had a rough go.

 

This Week: (+2.95, 43%), At #11 Illinois State (4-2, 1-1), 2PM Sat, Marquee Sports

 

See Illinois State.

 

6. #11 Illinois State (3.747) (4-2, 1-1)

 

 

Last Week: Won 46-32 At Murray State (0-6, 0-2)

A conference road win is just that. However, after a fast start to get up 21-3 early the defense completely checked out. Giving up 471 yards and 32 points to Murray should be a point of concern. Nothing else to add much here.

 

This Week: (-2.955, 57%), Vs RV Youngstown State (3-3, 0-2), 2 PM Sat, Marquee Sports/ESPN+

This is a huge game for both teams. Youngstown has essentially no margin for error, and although Illinois State has a little bit more margin for error at this point it is not much. Both teams have high powered offenses with star power and defenses that have waivered here and there throughout the season. I think the team that wins the turnover battle, or plays more fundamentally sound on defense walks away with this win handily.

 

 

5. RV South Dakota (4.318) (4-3, 2-1)

 

 

Last Week: Won 19-14 At Indiana State (2-4, 0-2)

 

On the flip side of there’s no such thing as a bad road conference win, this was about as close as it gets. Although this was definitely the best defensive performance of the season for USD by far, allowing just 1 long scoring drive and a score off a coverage bust. Offensively they were once again one dimensional and stuck in the mud once they got to the money downs/areas. They made 5 trips inside the 20, and although Will Leyland gets his flowers for making sure each trip turned into at least 3, only 1 of those leading to a touchdown is a cause for concern. And although they outgained the Trees by quite a bit their simple efficiency numbers of 7.4 yd/att passing and 3.7 yd/att rushing are once again not what you would want to see against a bottom 2 conference opponent.

 

This Week: (-5.09,68.34%), At Northern Iowa (2-4, 0-2), 1 PM Sat, MVFC TV/ESPN+

 

This is a game between a USD team that is still trying to find its footing, and a UNI team looking to find its identity. I think we will have good on good in this one when we have FCS rushing leader L.J. Phillips of USD against a solid UNI front 7. I think then you look who’s better elsewhere and although USD’s defense has struggled this year, they did look sharp last week and UNI’s offense has been lifeless pretty much all season. I think in this one we see USD win a low scoring game that isn’t as close as the score would otherwise suggest.

 

 

4. #10 Southern Illinois (5.01) (4-2, 1-1)

 

Last Week: Lost 17-45 At #1 North Dakota State (6-0, 2-0)

 

Well it was a tale of two halves for SIU. They had the ball near the end of the half in plus territory in a tie game almost sure to take the lead into halftime. Then a strip sack and a sub one minute TD drive followed by the double up after the half by NDSU and the pressure of being down 2 scores led to another fumble and from there the route was unfortunately on for the Salukis. I actually thought this was one of the better defensive showings in the beginning from the Salukis as they forced the Bison to punt twice and settle for a field goal on 3 of their first half possessions, but then the pressure of playing down two plus scores to the #1 team in their place caught up quickly.

 

Next Week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (+2.235, 43.96%), Vs #7 North Dakota (4-2, 2-0), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+

See North Dakota.

3. #7 North Dakota (5.738) (4-2, 2-0)

 

 

Last Week: Won 35-17 Vs RV Youngstown State (3-3, 0-2)

 

This was a very solid performance by The Fighting Hawks. Defensively they slowed down Beau Brungard as much as you can realistically hope to and did not allow for any of their other stand outs to make a large impact on the game in any sort of meaningful way. On the other side of the ball Jerry Kaminski had one of the least efficient weeks he’s had as a starter, but he did have 3 TDs and the Hawks ran the ball very well as a collective.

 

This Week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (-2.235, 56.04%), At #10 Southern Illinois (4-2, 1-1), 2 PM Sat, ESPN+

 

This is the lone big game pretty well across the entire FCS landscape so this should draw plenty of eyes on Saturday. And to be totally honest I really like UND’s chances in this one. Their defense has been playing pretty solid, and despite SIU coming off their best defensive performance despite what the macro statistics say I trust UND’s to get a stop when needed much more than SIU’s even though I feel like SIU has the more dynamic and explosive offense. Just because UND’s hasn’t been at the same extreme they have still been efficient when it has counted, and I think that will be enough.

 

 

2. #2 South Dakota State (6.978) (6-0, 2-0)

 

 

Last Week: Won 31-3 Vs Northern Iowa (2-4, 0-2)

 

Not the strongest showing from the Jacks offensively but the fact the 3 and outs were consecutive and they missed 2 FGs made it feel much worse than it was. The defense however, was fantastic with 5 takeaways. As has been echoed elsewhere here on JI, a UNI win on Hobo Day is always a good thing.

 

This week: (-34.71, 99.93%), At Murray State (0-6, 0-2), 6PM Sat, ESPN+

One last tune up for the Jacks before the big one, and a chance for a program changing win for the Racers coming off one of their better performances of the season. I think don’t over think this one.  Jacks get up early and it stays that way.

 

1. #1 North Dakota State ( 7.156) (6-0, 2-0)

 

Last Week: Won 45-17 Vs #10 Southern Illinois (4-2, 1-1)

 

The Salukis hung in early, but the vaunted Code Green defense caused a couple turnovers, which allowed the juggernaut of an NDSU offense to keep their foot on the pedal and pull away. This was another impressive win for a very good Bison team.

 

This Week: (-31.85, 98.76%), At Indiana State (2-4, 0-2), 12 PM Sat, ESPN+/ABC (ND Only)

 

Indiana State comes in off a solid defensive performance against USD while NDSU looks to roll full steam ahead towards the marker game. I think much like the game preview for the Jacks and Racers I don’t expect a whole lot out of this one. Bison roll even if they are looking ahead to the 25th.

 

Go Jacks!

 

Alex