Still only two teams left this week that control their own destiny and they meet in a huge matchup. However, USD is now also second in odds after the UND loss. If SDSU wins on Saturday they will have a >60% chance to win the conference title. If USD wins they will have a 20% chance of winning the conference but that would still be better than the 0.5% if they lose, and they would control their own destiny.
We also have our first eliminations. As discussed with SDSU and USD playing each other that also means one of them will leave Saturday with 5 conference wins and therefore we must end the lines of Indiana State and Western Illinois as they have 4 conference losses a piece. Western, we’ll see ya when we see ya. Indiana State, better luck next year.
In another movement UNI now finds themselves in 3rd for the first time since week 0 after their big win over UND. SIU and UND tumbled slightly with their losses, and YSU and Ill State swapped spots again with their results.
12. Western Illinois (0.39, 0.39) (0-7, 0-4 actual)
Last Week: Loss @ #12 North Dakota State (5-2, 2-2) 7-52
Not much to say, at least positively for the Leathernecks in this one. I’d say Western never really tried in this one, but they also never really had a shot. They averaged under 4 plays a possession in the first half, and only had 13 passing attempts. The lone highlight for them came on a late Matt Morrisey to former Jackrabbit AJ Coons deep bomb for the lone Leatherneck score.
This Week: VS #11 Southern Illinois (5-2, 2-2) (+28.5, 2.64%), 3 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
11. Indiana State (0.87, 0.87) (0-7, 0-4)
Last Week: Lost Vs #4 South Dakota (6-1, 4-0) 3-17
Indiana State put up a big fight early and did a really good job of matching the Yotes physicality at times. The game was tied at 3-3 at the half and would’ve been 6-3 in favor of the Sycamores if not for a missed FG. However, in the second Indiana State’s defense allowed a long drive capped by a Nate Thomas TD and an explosive TD run to Charles Pierre Jr while continuing to be ineffective on offense themselves. Having their last two drives in the red zone and at midfield end on downs after they were already in desperation mode. Cade Chambers left with an apparent injury again, and that is something to watch as he is clearly better than the other QBs they have played this year although Elijah Owens did lead the drive that stalled at the 4. In another bright spot this was also Justin Dinka’s best game of the year even if at a modest 74 yards on 17 carries that should still be commended against a tough South Dakota defense.
This Week: @ #15 North Dakota (4-3, 2-2) (+25, 3.14%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
10. Murray State (2.28, 1.28) (2-5, 1-3)
Last Week: Lost @ Missouri State (3-4, 2-2) 24-28
Murray refused to go down without a fight and continued to show that while they will need some time to build, they are up to the task at hand in a rough and tumble MVFC. It was a very back and forth affair that saw no 4th Quarter scoring. If DJ Williams can clean up his turnovers (21-34 227 yds 3 TD 2 INTs) this will be a solid offense as they continue to show. His 4th and 2 pick wasn’t a bad one given the situation with 2 min and change left to play, but he had some other options to keep what was realistically their last shot alive. However, as he is by far their best player they will continue to live and die as he goes. The Racers did force 2 Bears turnovers and almost a 3rd late in the 4th when they poked the ball free from a scrambling Jordan Pachot, however he was able to get back on it.
This Week: @ #12 North Dakota State (5-2, 2-2) (+32.5, 0.4%), 2:30 PM CST Sat 10/28, ABC (ND Only)/ESPN+
9. Missouri State (4.36, 3.36) (3-4, 2-2)
Last Week: Won Vs Murray State (2-5, 1-3) 28-24
The Bears probably got more than they bargained for out of this one, but were able to pull out a bit of a scrappy win. With Jacob Clark still out Jordan Pachot continues to play well going 19-29 287 yds for 4 TDs and 1 INT. Could we see the beginnings of a QB controversy when Clark is back if Pachot keeps stringing together games like this? I know that I have beat the drum to death at this point, but the Bears have to find a way to rush the ball. 64 yards gross on 17 carries just will not cut it long term in the MVFC.
Defensively the Bears did just enough to get this done. Making several key stops when called upon including a pick to end Murray State’s last real drive as part of 2 takeaways on the day. DE Devin Goree was so disruptive his efforts won him MVFC Defensive player of the week recording 8 solo tkls, 3 solo, and 2.5 sacks.
This Week: @ #24 Youngstown State (4-3, 2-2) (+5.5, 37.26%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
8. (-1) Illinois State (6.11, 4.11) (4-3, 2-2)
Last Week: Lost @ #24 Youngstown State (4-3, 2-2) 38-41
The Redbirds found themselves on the losing end of a fantastic game. They could ultimately not stop the Penguins in the 4 minute drill as they took over with 4 min and change and chewed up the rest of the clock before kicking a walk off field goal. As you can tell by the score it was all offense in this one. Some of the big stat lines to highlight for the Redbirds are Zack Annexstad going 23-36 for 238 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. Mason Blakemore went for 128 yards on 17 carries. And then last but not least an absolutely stupid stat line from Daniel Sobkowicz amassing 170 yds for 3 TDs on 11 grabs.
Defensively there is not much to discuss here other than the lack thereof. Did the Jackrabbits break the Illinois State defense or were they never that good to begin with? Probably somewhere in the middle, but we have 4 more games to find out.
This Week: Vs #23 Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1) (+2.5, 41.81%), 12 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
7. (+1) #24 Youngstown State (6.42, 4.42) (4-3, 2-2)
Last Week: Won Vs Illinois State (4-3, 2-2) 41-38
A great back and forth game without much defense saw Mitch Davidson and crew ice the game with a perfectly executed 4 min drill to drain the last 4:18 off the clock after getting the ball back tied while kicking the game winning field goal as time expired. The Penguins really had to make the most of every close opportunity to pull this one out going 4 for 4 on 4th downs. Winning the time of possession by nearly 10 min in part spurned by that clock bleeding game winning drive, and forcing the only turnover on the day. Tyshon King and Dra Rushton continue to lead the rushing attack, and as a team YSU amassed 267 yards on 50 carries against what was still a somewhat tough rushing defense. Mitch Davidson didn’t do anything overly flashy in this game, but he protected the football and took command of the offense in several of the key situations and conversions mentioned above.
Despite the win the Penguin defense continues to look like it may be a liability. Not sure what they are able to do to fix it at this point, but it looks like it will continue to make the offense carry the weight of this football team.
This Week: Vs Missouri State (3-4, 2-2) (-5.5, 62.74%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
6. #12 North Dakota State (7.75, 4.75) (5-2, 2-2)
Last Week: Won Vs Western Illinois (0-7, 0-4) 52-7
Not much to say here, as the Bison took out what has been a frustrating year especially after the loss to instate rival UND out on a very bad Leathernecks team. The Bison got everyone involved in this one as 10 different ball carriers ran the ball 44 times for 425 yards. Not much else to say here apart from the NDSU pass rush was able to bring Morrisey to the turf 5 times in this one in an impressive showing.
This Week: Vs Murray State (2-5, 1-3) (-32.5, 99.6%), 2:30 PM CST Sat 10/28, ABC (ND only)/ESPN+
5. (-1) #11 Southern Illinois (7.86, 4.86) (5-2, 2-2)
Last Week: Lost Vs #1 South Dakota State (7-0, 3-0) 10-17
This one wasn’t quite as close as the score would indicate, but still a good fight put up by Southern Illinois. Unfortunately turnovers and stalled drives spilled their demise in this one. Nic Baker had an ok game going 20-24 for 225 yds, 1 TD, but 1 INT. He was sacked 4 times and stripped twice. Somehow getting the first one back when a Jackrabbit defender couldn’t coral it in bounds and unfortunately losing a very costly one when it mattered most. On the ground the SDSU front bottled them up for 83 net rushing yards and 113 gross, however Baker accounted for almost half of both of those figures on QB scrambles.
Defensively they did slow the SDSU offense below their season averages in all categories, but they gave up some big plays when it mattered most and that was the difference in this one.
This Week: @ Western Illinois (0-7, 0-4) (-28.5, 97.36%), 3 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
4. (-2) #15 North Dakota (7.09, 5.09) (4-3, 2-2)
Last Week: Lost @ #23 Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1) 0-27
Was this NDSU hangover, F’in Hawks inability to play on the road, or both? What a horrible game from the UND offense 0 points scored, 1 for 12 on 3rd down, -2 TO margin, 15 net rushing yards after surrendering a bunch of sacks. I don’t really know what to say beyond that the UND offense just completely stayed behind in Grand Forks.
Defensively they weren’t much better. They gave up just over 400 yards of total offense, however the Panthers did only score on a somewhat modest 5 of their 9 drives that didn’t result in the end of half or regulation.
Bad Game for UND, learn what you can and then burn the tape and start over.
This Week: Vs Indiana State (0-7, 0-4) (-25, 96.86%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
3. (+2) #23 Northern Iowa (6.46, 5.46) (4-3, 3-1)
Last Week: Won Vs #15 North Dakota (4-3, 2-2) 27-0
Despite moving a reserve LB to RB for this game UNI dominated this one. Oh and did we mention? That young man’s name is Amauri Pesek-Hickson and he rushed for 180 yards and a score on 30 carries. Not only was this man converted over just this week, but they leaned on him as the backbone of the offense and he rewarded them for it. That is, not to take away from Theo Day who had a fairly quiet good not great game which I’m sure was fine by him after a not very happy Hobo Day.
Defensively that Panther front showed the flash we have seen at points this year all day holding UND to 15 net rushing yards and bringing QB Tommy Scuester to the ground for a sack 4 times. With no time in the pocket and no ground game the Panthers added two takeaways in a total domination.
This Week: @ Illinois State (4-3, 2-2) (-2.5, 58.19%), 12 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
2. (+1) #4 South Dakota (7.88, 5.88) (6-1, 4-0)
Last Week: Won @ Indiana State (0-7, 0-4) 17-3
This one was a bit clunky for the Yotes. Probably a combo hangover off the excitement of the Youngstown game and looking ahead to the Interstate Showdown. The defense showed up like it always did. Holding Indiana State to 3 points including a 4th and goal stop with the Sycamores looking to tie the game in the 4th.
Offensively Travis Thies and Charles Pierre Jr both went over 100 yards on the day. Pierre Jr gained most of his on an 82 yd TD run almost immediately following the aforementioned stop to ice the game. Aidan Bouman played a good not great game going 11-17 for 182 yards.
This Week : Vs #1 South Dakota State (7-0, 4-0) (+16.5, 10.37%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, Midco/Midco+/ESPN+
1. #1 South Dakota State (10.43, 7.43) (7-0, 4-0)
Last Week: Won @ #11 SIU (5-2, 2-2) 17-10
At risk of sounding arrogant or cocky I don’t think this one was quite as close as what the scoreboard showed. SIU kicked their last field goal with mere change on the clock, and I think if you were to give both teams their unlucky bounces back this one would finish something more along the lines of 27-13. The defensive effort was great, holding SIU to just over 50 rushing yards outside of Nic Baker scrambles and Baker himself, despite throwing for a modest 225 yards, never truly looked comfortable out there.
The Jackrabbits won the turnover battle 2-1 and the lone pick was a 50/50 ball to TE Zach Heins who will traditionally hall that in much more than the 50% the name of the throw would indicate. As a team the 605 hogs and backfield were tested against the nation leading SIU run defense, but still managed a respectable 147 net rushing yards on 32 carries. Mark Gronowski didn’t have his best game, but as always he was biggest when it mattered most. He had a perfect 48 yd strike to Griffin Wilde in the 3rd quarter for one of the only 3 TDs in the game, and he broke 2 tackles to earn a first down early on on a 3rd and 8 on what ended up being the game icing drive.
This Week: @ # 4 South Dakota (6-1, 4-0) (-16.5, 89.63%), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, Midco/Midco+/ESPN+
Game Previews
Missouri State (3-4, 2-2) @ #24 Youngstown State (4-3, 2-2) (-5.5), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
I am once again unsure if Jacob Clark will be back for Missouri State, but with the way Jordan Pachot has been playing in his stead it may not matter too much. Missouri State is one dimensional on offense passing for just under 300 yards per game and rushing for only 100. Normally that would cause issues as evidenced by their hovering around 0.500 record, but if there is a team in the Valley right now outside of the basement dwellers to take advantage of that against it is Youngstown. The Penguin secondary is allowing 250 yards on average this year through the air.
However, on the other side of the ball this stout Youngstown offense scoring nearly 36 points per game should have no trouble moving the football against a Missouri State Bear defense that is allowing nearly 29 points per game and 400 yards of total offense. Personally I think that the Bears will hang into the 4th quarter, but look for Mitch Davidson and the two headed attack of King and Rushton to push the Penguins ahead late in a shootout.
Murray State (2-5, 1-3) @ #12 North Dakota State (5-2, 2-2) (-32.5), 2:30 PM CST Sat 10/28, ABC (ND Only)/ESPN+
Murray State gets a lot of credit in my book for coming into the MVFC and playing much tougher than I thought they would to start out. That said they still have a long way to go especially headed into the FargoDome against a Bison squad with everything to prove. While it may be closer than the predicted spread I still like the Bison in this one.
#11 Southern Illinois (5-2, 2-2) @ Western Illinois (0-7, 0-4) (+28.5), 3 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
Southern Illinois will head over to play instate rival Western Illinois Saturday and it won’t be close. Western Illinois is in the middle of a 20 plus game losing streak and Southern Illinois will be looking to bounce back after a hard fought loss against #1 SDSU. Salukis get back on track in this one.
Indiana State (0-7, 0-4) @ #15 North Dakota (4-3, 2-2) (-25), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, Midco2/Midco+/ESPN+
An Indiana State team possibly once again without Cade Chambers will head up to the Alerus Center, where North Dakota is notoriously tougher to play than on the road. Compound that with North Dakota looking to shake off an embarrassing loss to #23 Northern Iowa last week and I’ve got the Fighting Hawks running right through the trees.
#23 UNI (4-3, 3-1) @ Illinois State (4-3, 2-2) (+2.5), 12 PM CST Sat 10/28, ESPN+
This is honestly one of the more entertaining games in my opinion on the slate. Especially when you factor in that both teams can probably only afford to lose one more game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Despite being the higher ranked team and having more talent on paper UNI comes into this one with the far worse scoring margain at -1.5 ppg to Illinois State’s very good 14.5. What does this tell us? UNI with a few exceptions mostly plays tight games and Illinois State may be better than their record would indicate. To dive into this further you can look at Massey Strength of schedule face where Northern Iowa is #1 and Illinois State is #41. Now what we’ve talked about prior seems to make sense. When you look at their histories UNI has played tight with some good teams on the balance, but Illinois State outside of last week against Youngstown has seen more binary results. Call me crazy but in a must win game I like a team that is a little more battle tested. With both teams having very similar gross yardage figures, I know it contradicts what I think I said on the podcast tonight, but give me UNI in a close one.
#1 South Dakota State (7-0, 4-0) @ #4 South Dakota (6-1, 4-0) (+16.5), 1 PM CST Sat 10/28, Midco/Midco+/ESPN+ *ALEX’S GAME OF THE WEEK*
Game of the week, any other year where SDSU hadn’t already played Montana State it might be the biggest regular season game in the entire country this year. A top 5 matchup in a historic rivalry. I once again try to keep this Jackrabbit preview a little shorter even in these instances because you kind find that information elsewhere on our blog and podcasts here at Jackrabbit Illustrated but I am very excited and a little nervous for this one. USD is a team that lives on explosive plays having 59% of their points come directly from or set up as a result of an explosive play. They will have to try to do this against the #2 scoring defense in FCS football and that is top 10 in every major statistical category. On the flip side USD’s defense is #3 in the entire FCS for scoring but much more average in gross yardage which would tell you they will let you move the ball between the 20s but don’t let you have the big play themselves either, and tighten up when it matters as evidenced by their red zone numbers. This Saturday it will however come against the #1 scoring and #1 red zone offense. If the Jacks can score in the red zone while holding the Yotes to field goals while improbable I do think the large spread the model is predicting starts to become possible. I think the Jacks win a hard fought game by 5-10 personally.
As always thanks for reading and thanks for the comments and questions.
Go Jacks!
Alex
