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MVFC By The Numbers Week #3

Jack Illustrated

MVFC By The Numbers Week #3

 

Week 3 is here and we had some big games last week and more on tap this week. SDSU and UND pulled out some big wins to elevate the Valley to 2-0 in ranked vs ranked games in OOC so far this year. Computers have given a big bump to the Bison allowing them to eat away almost all of the Jacks current “lead” in the league. USD and SIU are virtually tied for third and after their big win UND is looking to join them in that tier. Elsewhere in the middle we continue to see a lot of jostling.

 

  1. Murray State (0-2, 0-0) (0.856 conf wins)

Last week: 19-17 Loss vs Butler (2-0)

 

9 Total First Downs, 41 passing yards, 18 min and change time of possession, and -1 TO margin. Play that bad and even a Pioneer League team might beat you, and sure enough that’s what happened. Very little good to takeaway from this one for the Racers apart from their rush offense looked ok.

 

This Week: (-18.8, 92.0% WP) Vs Mississippi Valley State (0-2), Sat 6 PM, ESPN+

 

I hate to be so pessimistic so early, but the Racers are a heavy favorite this week and need to capitalize on it. This is possibly their last legitimate shot at a win this season. As stated the rushing offense was decent last week, but almost everything else was clunky, inefficient, and/or poorly executed. I know there are a lot of new and moving pieces on this team, but it needs to gel quickly.

 

  1. Indiana State (0-2, 0-0) (1.262)

Last Week: Loss at Eastern Illinois (1-1) 27-20:

 

Indiana State once again lost another close one to rival Eastern Illinois. To use too many football cliches as we tend to do around here the Trees came up short due to losing the TO battle -1 and despite having similar offensive numbers being just slightly less efficient than the Panthers both on per play basis and on key (3rd and 4th) downs.

 

This Week: (-9.61, 77.47%) Vs Dayton (1-0), 5 PM Sat, ESPN+

 

Indiana State will play their home opener Saturday against the nearby Pioneer League foe, Dayton. I really look for Indiana State to take this opportunity in a rare match up where they are favored to show off what they can do. Dayton is a bit of an interesting match up as they have only played one game and that was a win over the NEC’s St. Francis who upset Kent State last week. 

 

  1. Northern Iowa (2-0, 0-0) (3.535)

Last Week: Won 17-10 At St. Thomas (0-2)

 

Well I think we can officially say the UNI Air Raid is dead as they mustered a lowsy 99 yards on a Pioneer League team. Although they got the win they just looked horrible in this one. 3/12 on 3rd down is going to make for a long MVFC season if the Panthers don’t get it sorted out soon.  Defensively they held up ok for the second week in a row, but the competition has not exactly been stout thus far.

 

This Week: (+26.52, 2.62%)  At #23 (FBS) Nebraska (2-0), Sat 6:30 PM, B1GNetwork

 

The Panthers will have to play a lot better than last week to even sniff a chance in this one. However, its UNI they do weird things in these games. They are going into Lincoln to face a hot Nebraska team fresh off a big rivalry win and ranked for the first time since 2017. 

  1. (-1) Missouri State (0-2, 0-0) (3.721)

Last Week: Lost 42-34 At (FBS) Ball State (1-0)

 

The Bears fought valiantly in what was their last chance for an FBS upset. However, in my personal takeaways in this one I also see some of the same issues Missouri State had last year starting to appear. In a script almost identical to most of their games last year the Bears had a very efficient passing offense, but struggled to move the ball on the ground and were very porous on defense. I know a lot of it is probably just coach speak, but if the Bears are truly trying to go out swinging and contend for the MVFC crown on the way out they are going to have to get a ton better on their lines.

 

This Week: (-25.15, 95.99%) Vs Lindenwood (0-2), Sat 6 PM, ESPN+

 

After a couple of close calls against some solid teams the Bears should hopefully get a layup this week before another solid OOC opponent in UT Martin and the always tough MVFC schedule. I still do think Lindenwood is a program on the rise long term in the FCS, but Missouri State should be able to take advantage of their struggles early on this year.

 

  1. (-1) #18 Illinois State (1-1, 0-0) (3.796)

Last Week:Won 24-17 At North Alabama (0-2)

 

The Redbirds took care of business against a decent North Alabama team in an early road test. We talked last week about how they’d try to respond with some of their stars out. On the ground they did it in a big way rushing for 325 yards with the veteran back getting the chance to lead the way with the injury to Mason King going for 153 yards on 26 touches. Tommy Rittenhouse didn’t have his best game, and I still think to get where a lot of people think this team can go they are going to need to get more out of him, especially with a weapon like Sobkowicz on the outside. Defensively the front 7 held up well without Amir Abdullah only giving up 87 yards, but they have to be a little bit concerned with giving up 328 yards through the air on the back end.

 

This Week: (-28.83, 97.87%) Vs Western Illinois (0-2), Sat 12 PM, Marquee Sports/ESPN+:

 

To be completely fair I have to qualify this with the fact both of the Leathernecks’ opponents so far this year have been FBS teams. That said it doesn’t appear they have been anything more than a punching bag to start the year and have shown little capacity to be more than that.This will be a great game for the Redbirds to continue to hopefully get healthy and tweak the areas of their team that need tweaking.

 

Update after typing the above: Mason King is unfortunately lost for the season, and preseason all-americans OL Hunter Zambrano and LB Amir Abdullah are week to week. I’d expect to see both of them sit against a lesser opponent this week. This will be a good chance to change and tune up whatever needs changed with the King injury.

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  1. (+2) #21 Youngstown State (1-1, 0-0) (3.975)

Last Week: Won 59-25 Vs Valparaiso (0-2)

 

Youngstown controlled this one whistle to whistle as predicted. Beau Brungard was not asked to do much through the air but was efficient when he was called upon to do so. He also lead the Penguins in rushing with 194 yards on just 10 carries as overall the Penguins ran all over the Beacons to the tune of an astounding 429 yards. I know the Beacons are a bad PFL team, but that gross yardage is impressive regardless.

 

This Week: (-25.78, 94.00%) Vs Duquesne (0-2), Sat 1 PM, ESPN+

 

Duquesne is another team that has only played FBS foes thus far this year, and they have had some success in the NEC in the last few years. I still don’t think this will be much of a challenge for the Penguins. This will be another game where they should be able to impose their will how they so choose.

 

  1. #10 North Dakota (1-1, 0-0) (4.469)

Last Week: Win Vs # 8 Montana (1-1) 27-24

 

It was a tale of two halves in Grand Forks. After going into the break down 24-7 with a sputtering offense the Hawks defense tightened down and did not allow Montana to score another point. On the other side of the ball the offense did there part by controlling the game on the ground to score 24 unanswered and allow Montana to possess the ball for just 6 and change in the second half. That ultimately led to a missed Montana field goal as time expired and another big upset in front of the home Alerus Center crowd that has become slightly accustomed to them. I’m not sure netting 97 yards passing is long term sustainable for North Dakota especially with a talented athlete like Bo Belquist on the roster, but for now celebrate this one Hawks fans!

 

This week: (-15.73, 86.00%) Vs Idaho State (1-1), Sat 1PM Midco/ESPN+

 

This is a bit of an interesting one as we don’t know a ton about Idaho State at this point. There are several pundits that were fairly high on the Bengals this preseason, and at this point early in the year we don’t know a ton about them. The Bengals handily beat D2 Western Oregon and then hung with FBS Oregon State for about a half before eventually falling behind. You have to be curious if UND has a bit of a hangover from last week, but I don’t think they will. As discussed the Alerus seems to be for whatever reason one of the best home field advantages anywhere and the Hawks will be tough to beat in it. The only thing you have to be curious about is that this will be the easiest defense UND will have played to this point. Are they finally able to open up their offense some?

 

 

  1. (-1)  #9 Southern Illinois (1-1, 0-0) (4.637)

Last Week: 31-17  Win Vs Austin Peay (0-2)

 

Southern Illinois got a good win Saturday over an Austin Peay team that will likely  be in UAC contention. It was close for the first 3 quarters, but the Salukis took over in the 4th quarter to cruise to a comfortable win. While still far from perfect DJ Williams, as well as the rest of the offense as a whole, looked much improved. On the other side the Saluki defense was stifling as we’ve come to expect the last few years with an astounding 9 sacks and a pick holding Austin Peay to just 53 net rushing yards. They did give up some yards on the back end, but they did a good job of bending but not breaking to limit the damage on the scoreboard.

 

This Week: *GAME OF THE WEEK* (-9.10, 74.80%) VS #12 Incarnate Word (1-1), Sat 6 PM, ESPN

 

Incarnate Word heads to Carbondale and Saluki Stadium in a top 15 match up in my MVFC game of the week. This will be a very intriguing match up. Southern Illinois’ offense will have to continue to make incremental improvement on offense as we’ve seen Zach Calzada and UIW put up points in bunches. This will be a very good test for both teams and help us further gauge what both are. I know the Cardinals are excited about one more crack at the MVFC as are the Salukis to show what they can do at a quality opponent.

 

  1. (+1) #6 South Dakota (1-1, 0-0) (4.647)

Last Week: 27-13 Loss at (FBS) Wisconsin (2-0)

 

I think this game went about how most people felt it would be myself included. While not as good as they have been in recent memory the Badgers have been a solid program, and the Yotes walking out with a straight up win was always going to be a tall order. I was personally impressed with the way they fought especially after going down 14-0 early on in the first quarter. That felt like a moment where they could have laid over and gone through the motions, but they fought right along. I thought the Yote rushing offense looked really nice in this one. Charles Pierre Jr was efficient with his touches and earned 6.9 ypc. Keondray Jones-Logan busted a big one on his lone touch and continues to look like he may be a problem.

 

This Week: (-15.61, 83.46) At Portland State (0-2), Sat 3 PM, ESPN+

 

I’m going to say something that is going to sound extremely odd, especially coming off of playing an FBS team like Wisconsin, but this is likely going to be the biggest test the new look Yote defense will have faced thus far this season. The Yotes will probably be able to move the ball against the Viking defense fairly easily, but the Vikings are also going to take and get some shots of their own. If the Yote D is not ready this one may turn into a shootout, and the offense will have to finally unleash some of that fire power and quick strike ability they keep talking about, but we only ever seem to get slight glimpses of.

  1. #2 North Dakota State (1-1, 0-0) (6.501)

Last Week: Won 52-3 Vs Tennessee State

 

The Bison offense clicked again, and the defense held a lesser opponent out of the end zone. Not much to write about this one, other than apart from some nagging injuries popping up this is about as good as you could’ve hoped to have seen the Bison.

 

This Week: (-26.33, 97.61%) Vs East Tennessee State (1-1), Sat 4:30 PM, WDAY(ABC ND)/ESPN+

 

This one should be a bit more interesting, but only slightly so. There are some people that are a little higher on ETSU this year as well known, and former Gardner Webb HC, Tre Lamb looks to take over. We don’t know a ton about them as their two opponents this year are a good FBS team in App State and a middle of the road D2 team.  While I don’t disagree that the Buccaneers will be improved this year I still don’t feel they will put up much of a fight for the Bison. The only thing we may see is with the ETSU offense potentially explosive as it is touted to be we may get to see how the NDSU D has responded since the Colorado game.

 

  1. #1 South Dakota State (1-1, 0-0) (6.600)

Last Week: 45-24 Win Vs #12 Incarnate Word

 

As always I’ll keep my Jacks reviews and previews brief due to the plethora of other Jacks content we have here at JI. The Cardinals made the Jacks earn this one and I still think there are some questions on the defense especially as we are starting to see some injuries on that side of the ball, but this was a very good win.

 

This week: (-48.78, 99.93%) Vs Augustana (D2) (1-0), 6 PM Sat, Midco/ESPN+

 

This will be a fun atmosphere for a black out game against a former rival, but the Jacks should roll.

Go Jacks!

 

Alex

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