This has felt like the slowest week ever. One more sleep and then we can all make the trek to Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium to watch the Jackrabbits take on the Bobcats. This game has been on everyone’s mind since the bracket was released because a collision of these two teams felt inevitable. Finally, we get to settle it on the field. None of these “What to Watch” points are earth shattering. However, in these big games, it often comes down to who can do the basic things the best.
What to Watch
Redzone Efficiency
The Jackrabbits have been really good in the redzone this year scoring on 96% of their trips into the redzone. 75% of those trips end in a touchdown. Last week, the Jackrabbits uncharacteristically settled for 3 early field goal attempts. On the other hand, the Bobcats are allowing scores 89% of the time in the redzone; 71% have been touchdowns. The Jacks MUST convert redzone trips into touchdowns.
The Jackrabbit defense has been excellent in the redzone. Teams are scoring on 68% of their visits and just 45% of the time they are touchdowns. Montana State’s offense has bogged down in the redzone and scores on 84% of their trips; 62% are touchdowns. The Jackrabbit defense will give up some yards but if they can hold to field goals… the chances of victory go up, up, up!
Turnovers
Like last week against Holy Cross, these are two teams that are very good in turnover margin. SDSU is +13 on the season and Montana State is +16. Last week SDSU found a way to turnover Holy Cross with a huge pick-6 and could have had 1 or 2 more INTs. Montana State forced an interception last week too and Mellott had an interception waived off due to a penalty. The weather sounds like it will be dry but very cold and very windy. Turnovers will be a key predicter of this matchup and if either team can recover a fumble or force an interception early it would be a huge advantage in gaining an extra possession when every possession will have huge importance.
Ball Control
These two teams are excellent at possessing the ball. Montana State holds it for 32:52 while South Dakota State has it for 32:41. Maybe there is a blue print for what it takes to be a winning team? The field was in terrific shape last week and was a non-factor. It is hard to say what kind of shape the field will be in this week with so much rain and then snow. Regardless, the Jackrabbits will want to possess the ball and keep Mellott on the sidelines. Last year, the Jacks were much more of a quick strike offense. This years team is much more methodical and does not depend on the homerun. We’ll need to see plenty of that tomorrow!
Slow Mellott
The Jackrabbits will not be able to completely stop Tommy Mellott. Simply put, he is too dynamic of an athlete and his growth within the MSU offense is evident. However, they can work to contain him and slow him down enough. Like Sluka from Holy Cross, there will be a few wow plays. There will also be some gadget plays with their multi QB formations. It is impossible to be ready for it all, the players just need to be assignment sure. Last year he was really an unknown commodity for the Jackrabbits in the playoffs and he threw and ran all over the place. Now, the Jackrabbits have a seasons worth of film on Mellott. Will that matter? We will have to see but it certainly can’t hurt.
The Fans
The first two playoff games have been an electric atmosphere! Both games have been impacted by the fans making a TON of noise. Rumor has it that this is the MOST playoff tickets that have ever been sold for a Jackrabbit home playoff game. Last year, the Montana State fans had a tremendous impact on the game. It is time for Jackrabbit nation to do the same! If you are on the fence about going, DO IT! Make a memory because this game has the potential to be legendary. We’d encourage you to come tailgate with us before hand and enjoy some delicious food and drink. Then go to the game and make a ton of noise when Montana State has the ball and watch the Jackrabbits pick up a huge win!
Go Jacks!
Ben, Brendan, Chad, Dallas, Kyle, and Matt
