Get up Missouri Valley Football Conference fans! By the time you are all reading this it is (nearly) game day, or will be shortly pending what team(s) you root for. Before you rosin up the bow of that fiddle we’ve got a long season ahead, and I hope you are as excited as I am. So let’s crack something cold to drink, fire up that smoker or grill, and get together with some good friends because it has been far too long.
Worth briefly mentioning is the media deal the conference announced Tuesday, an extension of their ESPN+ contract through 2029 as well as 9 games on Linear ESPN (ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU) over the 6 year period of the extension. Assuming the revenue and sharing for the schools remained equal or increased I like this deal a lot. I think this is great for increased exposure of the member schools as well as a tool that should help all of them with recruiting.
Below is the team race chart. A quick breakdown of how it works for those unfamiliar as this is the first of the year. The position of the y axis is indicative of the “win points” a team has. Win points are actual wins + wp% of remaining games. If a team’s line is still moving, even if in the wrong direction they are mathematically alive for a share of the MVFC crown. If there is no outline on the logo they control their own destiny. If they have a line but a red outline they are alive mathematically but do not control their own destiny. If their line has stopped they have been mathematically eliminated from earning a share of the conference crown.
As you can see in the chart, with no MVFC teams active in week 0 there was not a whole lot of movement in the conference race as one might have expected. Despite a wide range of odds, hope springs eternal for all 12 MVFC teams for whatever goals they have this season. Let’s get into some of these matchups.
12. Murray State (2.11, 1.10) (0-0, 0-0 actual)
Easiest Game Remaining: Presbyterian College (0-0) (-33.5, 98.93%) Week 1
Toughest Game Remaining: @ Louisville (0-0) (+41, <0.1%) Week 2
Last Week: N/a
This Week: Presbyterian College (0-0) (-33.5, 98.93%), 6 PM CST Sat 9/2, ESPN+
The Blue Hose come into Murray, KY to start the year. This will be a good chance for the Racers to see what they have this year. According to local news media this is the first season the team has undergone a normal strength and conditioning program since 2019. QB DJ Williams is expected to get the start after missing last year with an ACL injury. Presbyterian should be a good opponent for him to try to knock off some of the rust. It is admittedly hard to find much Murray State football media coverage but what I was able to read up on seems to be high on WR Jacob Bell having a breakout year so in this one I will be looking for he and Williams to be on the same page early and often.
Presbyterian will come in looking to start year 2 under Coach Steve Englehart with a bang. There isn’t much else to be said here as Presbyterian has not won a game against a D1 opponent since beating Gardner Webb in November of 2019. There’s bad and then there’s whatever Presbyterian is. As much as I don’t foresee Murray being a factor in the Valley at large this year, this game will provide a chance for them to at least try to get out of the gate smoothly.
11. Western Illinois (2.59, 1.39) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Lindenwood (0-0) (-5.5, 65.21%) Week 3
Toughest Game Remaining : @ #2 NDSU (0-0) (+32, 2.13%) Week 8
Last Week: N/a
This Week: @ New Mexico State (0-1), (+13, 19.77%), 8 PM CST Sat 9/2, ESPN+
The Leathernecks will head to Las Cruces to play a very bad FBS in name only New Mexico State team. The Aggies are reeling off a loss to a UMASS team that hadn’t beat another “FBS” team in 15 games, and hadn’t won a road contest in over 4 years until last Saturday. Unfortunately for Western that might eliminate any chance they had of NMSU overlooking them.
While I don’t have a whole lot of anything new to add or nuance to the Western Illinois side of things from our start of the year preview, I would add one thing I am looking for this year is to see how former Jackrabbit AJ Coons does. AJ flashed at times in Brookings and really has a chance to be an impact guy on a team with a very sparse WR room. I hope he balls out this year especially since SDSU will not see them.
10. Indiana State (3.89, 3.08) (0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Eastern Illinois (0-0) (-14, 81.29%) Week 1
Toughest Remaining Game: @Indiana (+25.5, 3.45 %) Week 2
Last Week: N/a
This Week: Eastern Illinois (0-0) (-14, 81.29%), 5 PM CST Thu 8/31, ESPN+
The Sycamores open with Eastern Illinois. Star RB Justin Dinka and returning MVFC freshman of the year QB Cade Chambers will look to get the season started off on the right foot for the trees. Defensively the trees will be solid in the middle with team captains Giannini Belizaire and Lucas Hunter looking to anchor the front. However, they will be playing an EIU team that primarily moved the ball through the air last year. While I don’t think it will be completely uncompetitive; if this Indiana State team can take some of the steps they are hoping to take, this should be one that they take care of easily.
9. South Dakota (5.35, 3.41) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Lamar (0-0) (-24, 95.86%) Week 3
Toughest Game Remaining: @Missouri (0-0) (+26.5, 2.72%) Week 1
Last Week: N/a
This Week : @Missouri (0-0) (+26.5, 2.72%), 7 PM CST Thu 8/31, SEC Network
Bob Nielson’s team will get the first look at their new offense against a tough test in the form of P5 opponent Missouri. This is a Missouri team that last year finished a disappointed 6-7 and near the bottom of the SEC. Coming into the game Coach Drinkwitz has yet to name a starter. The two options currently being touted are returning starter RSSo Brady Cook and RFr and highly touted recruit Sam Horn. Sounds like some of both will see the field. On the other side of the ball Aidan Bouman will have to have a great game if the Yotes want to be competitive in this one. The Tiger defense was very stout against the run last year and returns 6/7 starters of their front 7. I know Coach Davis will want to pound the rock if he truly is bringing in the SDSU philosophy and playbook, but this is one where they will likely have to let Bouman, Bell, et al be the difference if they want to have a shot.
8. Illinois State (6.39, 3.68) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Dayton (0-0) (-27, 97.58%) Week 1
Toughest Game Remaining: #1 South Dakota State (0-0) (+18.5, 8.63%) Week 6
Last Week: N/a
This Week: Dayton (0-0) (-27, 97.58%) Week 1, 12 PM 9/2, ESPN+
Brock Spack’s squad will open up the year against Dayton. Dayton was a middle of the pack Pioneer League team last year and I don’t necessarily expect them to be much better this year. This will be a good tune up game for QB Zach Annexstad who is returning from injury and a defensive unit as a whole that has some questions to be answered if they can be an Illinois State defense of old.
7. Missouri State (5.36, 3.8) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Murray State (0-0) (-19, 91.51%) Week 8
Toughest Game Remaining: @Kansas (0-0) (+21.5, 9.74%) Week 1
Last Week: N/a
This Week: @Kansas (0-0) (+21.5, 9.74%), 7 PM CST Fri 9/1, Big12 Network/ESPN+
The Ryan Beard era starts against the Lance Leipold led Jayhawks. Kansas came out the gate super hot being ranked as high as #19 in the FBS polls before backing into the Liberty Bowl and a loss against Arkansas. Arkansas had a very similar trajectory to the Jayhawks last year and narrowly avoided an upset in week 2 against the Missouri State Bears (see I was getting to it). If the Bears want to have a similar showing in Lawrence this year they will need big games out of returning RB Jacradia Wright and new QBs Jacob Clark and Jordan Pachot. I’ll be honest with my own personal feelings here, if you are still trying to figure out your starting QB going into an FBS P5 matchup as an FCS team it probably won’t go especially well.
6. RV Youngstown State (5.97, 3.99) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Valparaiso (0-0) (-36, 99.27%) Week 1
Toughest Game Remaining: @ FBS #3 Ohio State (0-0) (+42.5, 0.6%) Week 2
Last Week: N/a
This Week: Valparaiso (0-0) (-36, 99.27%), 6:30 PM CST Thu 8/31, ESPN+
The Guins start the year at Stambaugh against a Pioneer League opponent in the form of Valparaiso. The big story coming into this one is that Dra Rushton has earned the starting job to replace Jaleel McLaughlin at RB. He should be able to get chances early and often against a Valparaiso team that gave up 150+ yd per game last year while playing a Pioneer League schedule, but I would expect some of the other guys in that room to get touches as well. Not a whole lot else to say on this one, Valpo’ is 0-9 all time against current MVFC members although the Beacons are looking for their 4th straight year with a 0.500 or better conference record which would be the longest streak in school history.
5. #17 North Dakota (6.67, 4.76) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Drake (0-0) (-38, 99.3%) Week 1
Toughest Remaining Game: @ Boise State (0-0) (+20, 9.23%) Week 3
Last Week: N/a
This Week: Drake (0-0) (-38, 99.3%) Week 1, 3 PM CST Sat 9/2, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+
Another good Valley team playing against another Pioneer League opponent. This one in all likelihood will not be close either. Big thing offensively to look for here is how transfer Wes Elidor gels into the UND offense, and if he can be the home run threat he was for USD both on the outside and as a return man for the F’in Hawks. On the defensive side of the ball Joel Schwenzfeier will have his first game as DC, and the team will be looking to replace the production of last year’s leading tackler Devon Krzanowski. Drake should be an opponent you can see some steps taking shape towards both of these goals against.
4. RV Southern Illinois (6.87, 5.12) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: @Murray State (0-0) (-18.5, 90.64%) Week 7
Toughest Remaining Game: #1 South Dakota State (0-0) (+9, 26.68%) Week 8
Last Week: N/a
This Week: RV Austin Peay (0-0) (-11.5, 75.19%), 6 PM CST Sat 9/2, ESPN+
Week one sees the Austin Peay Governors travel to Carbondale in a matchup between two teams receiving votes for and just outside of the top 25. While not a power house the Governors are a good team and with some help could be contenders in the UAC this year. While this is a game the Salukis should win it has the makings of the exact kind they struggled to close out last year. Although the Salukis could, and should, given the inexperience at the other skill positions on offense, lean on 6th year QB Nic Baker in this one that could be easier said than done as this is an Austin Peay team that was stingy in pass defense last year only giving up 188 ypg and averaging 1.1 ints per game. Offensively the Governors had a very balanced attack last year. It should be a good early season test for a mostly veteran group on the Saluki D. This is a very winnable game for SIU, but it is one that isn’t going to be handed to them.
3. #24 Northern Iowa (6.71, 5.13) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-0) (-25.5, 94.63%) Week 10
Toughest Remaining Game: @ Iowa State (0-0) (+22.5, 4.29%) Week 1
Last Week: N/a
This Week: @ Iowa State (0-0) (+22.5, 4.29%), 1 PM CST Sat 9/2, Big 12 Network/ESPN+ *ALEX’S GAME OF THE WEEK*
I know what you’re thinking if you’re a halfway knowledgeable college football fan, “No way that’s right?! It’s going to be way closer than that!” And to that I will agree with you 100%. I’m not sure if Sagarin and Massey (the databases I use to base my predictions/model off of) are not factoring in the suspensions to key Iowa State players or if they are just overvaluing the Cyclones based on residuals from the Brock Purdy/Breece Hall years but I agree that spread and win probability is far too slanted. And that is why I have made this my game of the week.
For starters as I talked about on the season preview blog UNI always seems to get up for these in state rivalry games.Iowa State and UNI specifically have played 6 times in the last 10 years with the average margin of victory being 10 and UNI winning 2 of them outright and 4/6 being 1 score games including both UNI wins. Couple that with the fact that UNI has the best QB in the state as Panther fans continue to, rightfully, tout (This has been a sore subject for Hawks and Cyclone fans alike, but prove me wrong. Cade McNamarra is questionable for the Hawkeyes and I’m not sure he’s better than Day to start with. We’ll address the Vegas sized elephant in the room shortly.) and the depth on the rest of the Panther’s roster, and the Cyclones should be on upset alert. Unless you have been under a rock you know that several Iowa State players are suspended indefinitely by the NCAA including last year’s starting QB Hunter Dekkers. Coach Matt Campbell has said that to start Saturday they will look at going with a QB by committee. This could be a disaster against a UNI front 7 who feels like they are the best they’ve been in years and a ball hawk like Woo Governor on the back end.
On the flip side I am not sure how much UNI film Iowa State’s DC has actually watched. He said in his presser Tuesday that his number one priority is stopping the run. While this is a key fundamental of sound defense, especially in collegiate football, I mean no disrespect to him or Panthers’ RB Harrison Bey-Buie, but if I was coming up with this defensive game plan I’d be losing way more sleep over Theo Day and the UNI WR corps.
All in all Iowa State is and should be the favorite. They are a P5 team with a good head coach and some recent successes going against an FCS opponent. However, I still think this will be a competitive contest and some good television. I know it is what I will be watching on Saturday.
2. #2 North Dakota State (8.82, 6.08) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Murray State (0-0) (-32.5, 99.27%) Week 9
Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (0-0) (+6, 35.47%) Week 10
Last Week: N/a
This Week: Vs (US Bank Neutral Site) Eastern Washington (0-0) (-16.5, 85.31%), 2:30 PM CST, ABC (ND only)/ESPN+
The Bison play a “neutral site” game to start the year against Eastern Washington. Although this is not the big time match up it would’ve been 5 or even 2-3 years ago I do think this is actually a fairly intriguing game nonetheless. I think Brendan summed it up fairly well on the B team this week. If NDSU can move the ball on the ground and put up 17-21 points on their first 4 drives while holding EWU to 7 or less on their first 4 drives this will be a slow boring game that is over at half time. Look at what happened in the quarterfinals last year when Samford went to the Fargodome.
However, the two unknowns that continue to pop up surrounding this 2023 Bison squad as we are about to kickoff the year are their secondary and Cam Miller’s ability to play from behind. The former sees the top two CBs with some playing experience, but not much experience behind them and completely new safeties including converted LB Cole Wisniewski. Although not the full on air raid Eastern teams of old they are still very much a team that can stretch the field, and the media in Cheney seems to be high on Kekoa Visperas who is looking to come into his own during his first full year as a starter. Visperas took over last year when starter Gunner Talkington went down to mixed results, but as stated the word around the EWU beat is that he is much improved this year and to top that off the Eagles are expected to have a very deep and talented WR group. To touch on the other point, there is still a lot of murmuring about Cam Miller especially after both SDSU losses last year, and even a dismal semi final performance the Bison won. While I think Cam gets a little too much grief and that he is a very good player especially for the FCS level, I don’t know that all of these questions are unwarranted. In more than the examples listed it just seems to be that Miller really struggles when the defense is able to rush 4 and drop 7 into coverage without having to respect the run game. Maybe we will see an entertaining offensive shootout where he gets a very early chance to quiet his doubters this season. One thing is for certain we should at least get a very quick glimpse into the perceived “weaknesses” of the Bison this year right out the gate and a feel for how much of a problem they could potentially be.
1. #1 South Dakota State (9.30, 6.60) (0-0, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Neutral Site (Target Field) Drake (0-0) (-49, 99.9%) Week 3
Toughest Game: #2 North Dakota State (0-0) (-6, 64.53%) Week 10
Last Week: N/a
This Week: Western Oregon (0-0) (-42, 99.9%), 7 PM CST Thu Aug 31, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+
The final celebrations for the 2022 Jackrabbits will happen Thursday. Then they will kick the ball and the 2023 title defense will be under way. As much as the fan base has talked about how much our starters should or shouldn’t play, looking past this game to a semi final rematch with #3 Montana State next week, all the off the field stuff, etc. (I am plenty guilty of this too.) I was relieved to hear Coach Rogers be concise and direct at this press conference this week and state that he had no definitive plan for at what point in this game, or any in the future, he would start to sub down and the primary objective is to defeat our nameless/faceless opponent every week. While Western Oregon was not great last year, and they are a D2 team, as a D2 club they still have more scholarships than any PFL teams the Jacks play as part of the regular FCS schedule. Historically this Western Oregon program has had some moments in their NAIA days years ago as well. To bring my SDSU fandom to the forefront here, all personally I am looking for is for our guys to stay healthy, and for everything to be crisp. I don’t need explosive offensive plays or crazy feats of athleticism on defense. I just want our boys to look disciplined and like they know what they are doing as we move towards the games that matter and in a hurry. This one will then hopefully take care of itself.
That wraps up our game previews for week 1. Thanks for taking the time to read, and whether you are a Jacks fan or a fan of another team, get out to the stadiums this weekend. There’s nothing better than a day at the game with family and friends and there’s going to be some great action in the MVFC this year.
Go Jacks!
Alex