Jackrabbit Illustrated

Welcome to MVFC By The Numbers. My name is Alex Kenkel, I am an engineer by trade and general analytics and numbers geek, especially when it comes to sports, and doubly so when it comes to football. For the past few years I have taken the time to compile a “model” to track the win probability of the MVFC over the course of the season. The term model is used loosely as all I do is take the existing Massey and Sagarin databases and run them through a Win Probability function I’ve built. I then add up the total win probability for each team as “win points” and track it through the year graphically. When JI was looking for new writers I reached out to Dallas to explain to him kind of how this works as well as show him the spreadsheets I use. He was kind enough to ask if I would be willing to do a feature on this. So, big thanks to Dallas and the rest of the JI team for letting me write this, and I hope they are willing, and time permitting to make this a weekly feature. 

As the season progresses this will look a little different as each week I will walk through the standings reverse order recapping last week’s game, previewing next weeks, and showing how things have changed. However, for this week 0/preview I’ll be showing each teams predicted win points and outright win totals, a quick preview of their toughest and easiest games, and a few things I am watching from each ball club as we wait for them to spot the ball in under a week’s time, or a little over that for us MVFC fans. So without too much more said we will get into it here, but I just wanted to say thanks for reading, and please reach out to me on social media as I love to talk football with any comments, questions, or just to tell me how dumb you think I am. 

12. Murray State (2.07, 1.09) (1-10, 0-8 outright)

Easiest Game: Presbyterian College (-33, 99.9%)

Murray opens the year at home week 1 against the worst team in the worst conference in all of college football. Don’t let the massive line and win probability fool you; this is the only game the Racers are favored in all year. If you are a part of the Murray State faithful this is a can’t miss game as this may be the only thing you have to cheer about all year.

Toughest Games: @Louisville, @Middle Tennesse, and @ #2 NDSU (various, 0.1%)

2 FBS games, one of them P5, and a trip to Fargo is enough to give most respectable programs 3 free losses throughout the year. When it is a middling at best team like the Racers these games will produce some lowlights in what could be a very rough year.

Outlook for 2023:

The Racers are the new kid on the block in what is obviously a move for their basketball team although it does give them annual matchups with longtime rival Southern Illinois. However, much like the new kid on the block everyone is going to be out to see how tough they are. Unfortunately for Murray they just moved to the toughest streets in FCS football, and they are going to need to get a lot bigger, faster, and tougher if they ever want to be used for anything other than a free conference win and a chance to suit up some of the redshirts.

11. Western Illinois (2.52, 1.37) (1-10, 0-8 outright)

Easiest Game: Lindenwood (-5.5, 65.21%)

Easiest is a bit of a relative term unfortunately for The Leathernecks here. They are favored in week 3 in Macomb when hosting future Ohio Valley Conference rival Lindenwood. However, the Lions are a team I personally feel is on the rise as they finish up their last transitional year from D2 where they will be playing a full FCS schedule, but not eligible for playoffs. If you like close football games somewhat immaterial of the quality of the ball being played this is a game for you. This will likely be one of the only realistic chances the Necks have to break what going into this game is more than likely going to be a 15 game losing streak going back to their upset of rival Illinois State in October of ‘21.

Toughest Game: @ #2 NDSU (+35.5, 0.1%)

I don’t really have much to say here. Western will be a huge dog on the road in The Fargodome. It is one of 5 games they have this year where they have a projected single digit or worse win probability.

Outlook for 2023:

If you are a Leathernecks fan all you are hoping to see this season is effort, improvement, and maybe a win or two. This will be the final season for Western in the MVFC meaning the last founding member of The Gateway will have officially left the build, and it unfortunately looks like they are going to go out with a whimper. Hopefully a better regional fit in the OVC as well as less stiff competition gives WIU a chance to rebuild.

10. Indiana State (3.89, 3.08) (4-7, 3-5)

Easiest Game: Eastern Illinois (-13.5, 80.74%)

Week 1 sees the Sycamores open their season and home slate against an Eastern Illinois Panthers team that was a dismal 2-9 last year. This could be a great opportunity for the trees to plant some roots for a much improved 2023 campaign.

Toughest Game: @Indiana (+25, 3.85 %)

Week 2 and 3 sees the Sycamores playing both their traditional rivals in the same season in a long time. Although they upset Ball State last time they played, the odds for both of these games this year do not look great. As stated above the tougher of this will be a trip to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers.

Outlook for 2023:

It is unlikely the Sycamores are going to wow anybody, but they have a chance to make some big strides this year. The offense returns tailback Justin Dinka who is sneakily one of the best backs in the FCS. If they can get some development at other spots on the team, while not playoff contenders, this team could give some people some headaches they hadn’t otherwise planned on. Remember this same team took the Bison the distance last year and led into the 3rd quarter against the eventual runner ups.

9. South Dakota (5.34, 3.4) (5-6, 3-5)

Easiest Game: Lamar (-23.5, 95.62%)

Lamar comes to Vermillion on week 3 in part of what is a very favorable home slate for the Yotes. After going to Columbia week 1 (more on that in a second) one of the bottom dwellers of the Southland comes to town a week after USD plays St. Thomas in another game the Yotes are heavy favorites. This should hopefully give a boost in attendance to a team, and financially athletic department, that desperately needs it. As well as provide a much better launching pad compared to the meat grinder that was the Yotes’ 2021 first 6 game schedule.

Toughest Game: @Missouri (+26.5, 2.79%)

USD will open the year down in Columbia, Missouri opposite the SEC’s Missouri Tigers. Not a lot to be said for this game other than the fact that as long as the Yotes can get out healthy and the check clears it’ll all be a positive

Outlook for 2023:

There is actually quite a bit to be excited about if you are a Yotes fan. Despite the rough season last year they have a much more favorable slate in 2023. While it will take some breaks and bounces both on their end and elsewhere around the country both in and out of the MVFC a 7 or 8 win USD team in the playoffs is not outside of the question. Offensively they will get to see Aidan Bouman in his first year with a full offseason program under his belt in Vermillion as well as not having to split time like he did last year when he came off the bench to replace Carson Camp. Running backs Travis Thies and Nate Thomas also return and will be relied upon heavily in new Offensive coordinator Josh Davis’ scheme he stole, I mean, brought with him from Brookings. Defensively they return guys like Myles Hardin, Brock Mogensen, and Brendan Webb who all have starting experience and will look to set examples and help the unit as a whole be more consistent in the 2023 campaign.

8. Illinois State (6.40, 3.68) (6-5, 3-5)

Easiest Game: Dayton (-26.5, 97.63%)

The Redbirds open the year in front of the home crowd of Hancock stadium against the Pioneer League’s Dayton Flyers. This should be a good chance for Brock Spack’s squad to get some reps in a friendly environment before the trial that is an MVFC season unfolds before them. Illinois State will then take the show on the road against their instate rivals Western Illinois in a rare early MVFC game, and then travel to Eastern Illinois in another very winnable game against the Panthers before returning home against Lindenwood. It’ll be important for the Redbirds to capitalize on this opening 4 game stretch of the season that is by far the easiest part, because after these 4 weeks and a bye……… (continued below)

Toughest Game: #1 South Dakota State (+19, 8.57%)

The Redbirds will host the defending champs in Normal. This was kind of a boring game last year as Zeke Vandenburgh slowed the Jackrabbits offensively, but a Zach Annexstadless offense did nothing against the Nation’s best defense. Although the toughest game on their schedule the Redbirds will need to carry momentum into this one and beyond as they are only favored in 2 of their 7 after the bye.

Outlook for 2023:

QB Zach Annexstad is back for his final year but injuries have plagued him both at ISU and prior at Minnesota where he transferred from after losing the job due to injury. Annexstead has been a capable starter when healthy, but he also lost his best weapon, his brother Brock, to graduation. The Redbird offense will likely hinge on the health and play of Annexstad. Defensively there are a lot of questions as Zeke Vandenburgh leaves a huge hole. Vandenburgh, now of the Miami Dolphins, was a one man wrecking crew and covered a lot of deficiencies for the Redbirds on defense. They are going to need a lot of their young guys to step up on that side of the ball this year. I think this is a group that has a ceiling of a first or second round playoff team, but their floor could be 4-8 and a rebuilding year.

7. Missouri State (5.36, 3.79) (5-7, 3-5)

Easiest Game: Murray State (-18.5, 90.87%)

Week 8 will see The Racers come to Plaster in what should be a very winnable game for the bears. They may need it as by that point in the season their playoff hopes could be on life support. Not much else to say about this one other than that it comes in the middle of a somewhat favorable home slate for the Bears as 3 of the 5 games they are favored in will be at home along with being a one score dog on senior day to UNI.

Toughest Game: @Kansas (+21.5, 9.83%)

The Bears will head to Lawrence week 1 for an FBS payday against a somewhat in recent years resurgent Kansas squad. It will be a tough place to do it, but this will be the first chance Bears fans have to get a look at their team under Ryan Beard and without Jason Shelley.

Outlook for 2023:

Bobby Petrino rode his motorcycle off to College Station to be the OC under Jimbo Fisher leaving Ryan Beard to take over. Beard inherits a squad that in many people’s eyes achieved last year losing some games they probably shouldn’t have and missing the playoffs. With star QB Jason Shelley departing, look for the Bears to lean heavily on their rushing attack and veteran RB Jacardia Wright for 2023.

 6. Youngstown State (5.97, 3.99) (6-5, 3-5)

Easiest Game: Valparaiso (-35.5, 99.27%)

Youngstown will knock off the rust against Valpraiso of the Pioneer League in front of the Stambaugh faithful in week one. Easy non-conference games book end a mammoth test against Ohio State in week 2 (see below) when Robert Morris will come to town in week 3.

Toughest Game: @ FBS #3 Ohio State (+42.5, 0.6%)

Not much to say on this one. Youngstown will take an FBS payday and get a shot at instate rival Ohio State in week 2, but at the end of the day this will be a throttling. Youngstown will also play SDSU late in the year in what could be a make or break for them to highlight other exceedingly difficult games, at least according to the numbers. All their other games they should at least have a puncher’s chance in. 

Outlook for 2023:

This is a Youngstown team that feels like they were slighted by not being selected for the playoffs last year. Despite what my model shows here some people have them finishing as high as 8-3, and while I might not bet my mortgage on that it would not completely shock me. Obviously Jaleel McLaughlin leaves a large hole on the offensive side of the ball the Penguins will look to fill via RB by committee, but they also will return QB Mitch Davidson. Davidson really started to come into his own late last year and could be a key contributor to their successes this season if he takes another nice step. Defensively while there are no true stars or standouts (at least that pop to the top of my head I’m sure someone will correct me) The Penguins return a ton of guys off of last year’s 2 deep that should help keep them in a lot of close games.

 5. #17 North Dakota (6.67, 4.76) (7-4, 4-4)

Easiest Game: Drake (-37.5, 99.3%)

North Dakota will open at home against Drake. That should be a shellacking as part of what overall is a very favorable home schedule. The F’in Hawks will be favored in 5 of their 6 home games and the 6th is a Buffalo Nickel game that the UND faithful feel they have a real shot at this year.

 Toughest Game: @ Boise State (+19.5, 9.54%)

To juxtapose the above UND will have a hell of road schedule. That will begin week 3 with a trip to Boise to play the Broncos in an FBS match up. The Hawks will also have to go to Brookings and Cedar Falls this year in what are two very tough to play in environments.

Outlook for 2023:

Bubba Schweigert’s squad will begin the 2023 year looking to extend their playoff streak to 4 years. Offensively it looks to be another big high flying year with a returning Tommy Schuster and Bo Belquist being joined by USD transfer Wes Elidor. The Hawks should be able to put up a lot of points and in a hurry as usual. The big questions will be can they play consistent defense and can they finally overcome their seemingly massive home/road splits? As far as the defense goes Joel Schwenzfeier takes over as the DC and will look to build around returning studs DL Ben McNaboe and CB C.J. Sigle. They will need some young guys to step up to help replace the production of guys like last year’s leading tackler Devon Krzanowski. As far as the home and away splits go this year could be an interesting study in causation/correlation as outlined above UND has a much tougher draw on the road than they will inside the Alerus.

4. RV Southern Illinois (6.88, 5.12) (8-3, 6-2)

Easiest Game: @Murray State (-19, 91.22%)

You know, I’ve heard it said there’s no such thing as a free win in the MVFC. However, SIU gets about the closest thing to it this year as they will play Murray, WIU, and Indiana State. As shown above the easiest of these games will be their short road trip to play Murray who is one of their biggest basketball rivals. Murray will need to step up their program though if any of that juice will carry over to the gridiron.

Toughest Game: #1 South Dakota State (+9.5, 25.77%)

Although they have some easy games as stated above they Salukis also have a trio of more difficult games. They face #1 South Dakota State, FBS NIU, #2 NDSU, and #12 arch rival SEMO. As for the other three games they are a slight underdog to NIU, also a low 2 score underdog to NDSU, and a slight favorite to SEMO (if you get a chance to tune into that one in week 3 you should that was one of the more entertaining games in all of college football last year. And who doesn’t love a rivalry trophy game?!). The toughest of these will be against SDSU. The last time the Jacks went into Carbondale they laid the wood, however the last two games in Brookings have been barn burners. A 2 score come from behind win in the 2020-21 quarter finals, and an OT loss in 2021 show that this game could have plenty of excitement come week 8.

Outlook for 2023:

SIU was a super inconsistent team last year. Although they went 5-6, 5 of their losses were by one score or less (4 of which they led at one point or another in the 4th quarter) and the other was to semi finalist Incarnate Word. That was something coach Hill harped upon in his MVFC media day interview. This team and program is a few small changes and focussing on the fundamentals away from being very good. Long time QB Nic Baker has come back for his 6th and final COVID year. While RB/Wildcat QB Javon Williams and stud WR Avante Cox have both moved on, Baker’s primary target this year will be Avante’s younger brother Diante. I am sure I do not need to remind Jacks fans how much of a problem the elder Cox was in that 2021 matchup. Defensively a good chunk of the group is back and they should be a group that plays smart and fast. If they can find that consistency they are striving for it would not shock me to see this squad be one of the ones that is playing on quarter final Saturday again. 

3. #24 Northern Iowa (6.72, 5.14) (8-3, 6-2)

Easiest Game: Western Illinois (-24.5, 94.85%)

The Unidome will be a comfortable place for the Panthers this year as they are favored in all of their home games except senior day against #2 NDSU. One last change to whip up on Western Illinois will be the least resistance of these.

Toughest Game: @ Iowa State (+21.5, 2.63%)

Week one the Panthers will head to Jack Trice Stadium to take on in-state rival Iowa State. While the numbers certainly say that this one won’t be close UNI always seems to get up for the rivalry games against their fellow Iowa teams. Don’t be surprised if this one is a lot closer than it looks like it should’ve been on paper. The Panthers’ other road test will come on a Hobo Day trip to The Dana. Although once again a multiple score dog in that one I’m sure I need not remind anyone of UNI’s Hobo Day track record.

Outlook for 2023:

The time is as good now as ever for UNI to make a push to return to prominence. They are returning a ton of talent on both sides of the ball headlined by Woo Governor at CB and Theo Day at QB. Although not the only preseason all-conference players for the Panthers they are undoubtedly the leaders on their respective sides of the ball and both are expected to hear their names called at the NFL Selection Meeting come April. UNI will be a threat in every game they play this year and should be a dark horse for the national title. Yes they have failed to live up to the hype in recent years, but it just feels legit this go round.

2. #2 North Dakota State  (8.84, 6.11) (10-1, 7-1)

Easiest Game: Murray State (-34.5, 99.27%)

Someone still needs to explain to me how the Bison play Murray and WIU while the Jacks play neither. Both teams are part of a relatively easy home slate for the Bison with only 2 games with any real potential of being close, SIU and UCA. Saying UCA might be a little generous there but they are the toughest projected of the Bison’s non-conference schedule which includes a neutral site game against Eastern Washington at US Bank Stadium week 1.

Toughest Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (+5.5, 36.44%)

Not much needs to be said about this one, it’s The Marker. Although the Jacks have had NDSU’s number lately they and UNI are the only teams to have won in Brookings since the DJD opened. This one will be a back and forth affair as always and the type of thing we all dream of for early November football. I will also note here that NDSU despite only 4 true road games has a much tougher road than home schedule also being slated to go to Cedar Rapids and Grand Forks as well this year.

Outlook for 2023:

The Bison are in a weird spot. Can you really be in a rebuild if you are a top 2 or 3 team? Because that is what this feels like. There are a ton of questions on the back end of their defense which was a weakness in the playoffs against UIW and SDSU last year. So much so that they are moving LB Cole Wisniewski to Safety to help shore up the secondary. He and veteran CB Marcus Shepherd will be expected to get the rest of that group up to speed. The front 7 should however, be business as normal returning guys like the Mostaert brothers and Loshiaka Roques on the DL and Nick Kubitz and Luke Weerts at LB. Offensively it is hard to replace a guy like Cody Mauch “The Rams” reload about as well as anybody and I’m sure this fall we will see another competent unit led by C Jalen Sundell. For pass catchers the Bison will actually have quite a bit of experience in terms of TE Joe Stoffel and WRs Zach Mathis, Braylon Henderson, RaJa Nelson, Eli Green, and Jake Lippe. At RB is where the Bison were arguably hit the hardest by the portal and graduation but they will still return impact players TaMerik Williams and TK Marshall. QB Cam Miller remains the guy but at his media day interview Matt Entz let on that the Cole Payton experiment is not over. I know there are a lot of people eager to see Payton take over, but the NDSU coaching staff is not incompetent and at this point if he were the guy he’d be starting. Despite the “rebuild” vibe the Bison will not be going anywhere. Matt Entz, while sometimes annoying, is a good coach. This is a talented football team. I fully expect them to be in the hunt late in the playoffs this year.

1. #1 South Dakota State  (9.29, 6.61) (11-0, 8-0)

Easiest Games: Western Oregon and Drake (99.9%)

The Jacks open on the Thursday night of week 0 against D2 blue blood Western Oregon who despite being typically impressive finished a pedestrian 6-5 last year; as well as a neutral site game at Target Field in week 3 against Drake. These games should both be celebrations for the Jackrabbit faithful as the Jacks handle business.

Toughest Game:  #2 North Dakota State (-5.5, 63.56%)

As stated above the Jacks have had the Bison’s number lately, but that could change at the drop of a hat. The Jacks’ current win streak over the homeless cows sits at 4. A win on 11/4 would tie their longest ever at 5. The bison currently hold the longest streak in the series at 17 from 1976-1992. There isn’t much else to be said about this one this will have a big game feel with serious implications as it always does. Other key games for the Jacks will be Hobo Day against UNI (-12.5, 78.31%) which I also already talked about briefly so I won’t dwell on much further. And Montana State (-7, 68.96%) in week 2 which most fans, myself included, are counting down the days to. Just those 3 games alone are more than worth the price of a season ticket.

Outlook for 2023:

This portion will probably seem brief, especially for an SDSU blog but that is exactly why. There is some much great content the rest of the team puts out to try to summate it like I did the other teams just wouldn’t do it justice. Please check out the other content here on JI!

With that said to hit on some of the high level notes the Jacks are bringing back 18 of 22 starters with transfers Blake Peterson and Dawson Ripperda looking to help fill the Reece Winkleman and Caleb Sanders shaped gaps. Malik Lofton was a big loss at corner but all of the top 4 guys at the corner spot this year have significant game experience. Tucker Kraft will be a big hole to fill as well, but Zach Heins is an NFL prospect himself and Mike Morgan and Kevin Brenner slated in nicely when called upon last year and should be ready for an increased workload. Obviously the other big change is Coach Rogers taking over for Coach Stig but from all accounts close to the source, namely beat reporter Matt Zimmer, “Not much has really changed at practices except you occasionally hear guys cussing now and it’s not a big deal.” The Jacks should be primed for a title defense in what should be another fun and exciting year of Jackrabbit football.

Go Jacks!

Alex