Week 4 and the official end of MVFC non conference play have come and gone. None of the games this week that did feature MVFC teams were particularly interesting and I can’t say that was a surprise to anyone. Week 5 and our first all MVFC slate is here. Now is when we will really start to see some moving and shaking on our chart.
With most of our teams on bye there was not much movement this week. Towards the middle UND and UNI switched places as did ISUr and YSU and Mo State and USD. These can all pretty well be attributed to the fact that while it wasn’t expected to be close, Missouri State manhandling UT Tech has them much higher in the models’ views. As of now everyone except WIU controls their own hopes and destiny for a conference title and an autobid. That is sure to change this week with 5 matchups on deck.
As we roll into full conference play here I am going to do one preview for every game in reverse order of the ranking of the higher ranked team in the matchup. We will still have all the normal data and a team specific recap under each team, but to avoid redundancy in the previews I am going to try this out. As always I am open to any and all feedback.
12. Western Illinois (0.73, 0.73) (0-4, 0-1 actual)
Easiest Game Remaining: @ Indiana State (0-3) (+6, 36.07%) Week 11
Toughest Game Remaining : @ #2 NDSU (3-0) (+37, 0.4%) Week 8
Last Week: Lost @ SUU 37-17
This one got a little ugly for the Leathernecks. Don’t know how many times I can type that without it being redundant, but it is the case more often than not. SUU jumped out to a quick 10-0 lead, but WIU showed some fight and had it tied at 17 all headed to the break. However, SUU would end the game on a 20-0 run across the entirety of the second half. As far as some more of the detailed stats from this game WIU netted an abysmal -7 yds on the ground. They aren’t going to snap their 17 game losing streak anytime soon if they can’t fix that. Matt Morrisey had another week where he put up big numbers going for 268 yds on 29 completions over 48 attempts. However one of the big differences on weeks gone by were the 3 picks he threw. The last of which got a Scott Van Pelt shout out on “Bad Beats” as it ruined WIU +18.5. It’s a bit unfair to expect him to be perfect, however, he is the best player on the team and what the rest of the squad trots out there every week they just aren’t going to win any of these games unless he is perfect. Defensively it was not a horrible effort, but not one that is going to carry a team to a win either. They gave up 338 total yards and almost 250 of that was through the air.
This Week: Bye
It is hard to pick one thing for the Leathernecks to look to on their improvement week. I think their worst issue is their lack of any sort of rushing attack whatsoever. If I were on the Necks staff we would be doing everything we can to evaluate our schemes and putting the entire o-line group through some intensive run blocking workouts and drills.
11. Murray State (2.04, 1.04) (1-2, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Indiana State (0-3) (+0.5, 47.23%) Week 5
Toughest Game Remaining: @ #2 NDSU (3-0) (+34.5, 0.4%) Week 9
Last Week: Bye
This Week: Vs Indiana State (0-3) (+0.5, 47.23%), 6 PM CST Sat 9/30, ESPN+
10. Indiana State (1.73, 1.73) (0-3, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-34, 0-1) (-6, 63.93%) Week 11
Toughest Remaining Game: @ #10 SIU (3-0) (+27, 97.5%) Week 12
Last Week: Bye
This Week: @ Murray State (1-2) (-0.5, 52.77%), 6 PM CST Sat 9/30, ESPN+
9. (-1) South Dakota (5.86, 3.86) (2-1, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Vs Murray State (1-2) (-17.5, 91.26%) Week 6
Toughest Game Remaining: @ #2 North Dakota State (3-0) (+21, 5.28%) Week 5
Last Week: Bye
This Week : @ #2 NDSU (3-0) (+21, 5.28%), 1 PM CST Sat 9/30, ABC(ND only)/Midco+/ESPN+
8. (+1) Missouri State (4.90, 3.90) (1-2, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Murray State (1-2) (-20, 92.70%) Week 8
Toughest Game Remaining: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+21, 6.9%) Week 12
Last Week: Win Vs UT Tech (1-3) 59-14
After a rough start to the year this was a really good get right game for the Bears. They ended up with both the MVFC offensive and defensive players of the week. Jacob Clark was the offensive player of the week and he was crazy efficient. He completed 19 of 26 passes for 414 yds and a school record tying 5 TDs. On the ground the Bears showed some of the improvement we talked about, and they didn’t even have to force feed Jacardia Wright. They gained 210 yds as a team on 31 carries.
Defensively Caleb Blake won player of the week. He was credited for 5 tkls, 1 INT, and 3 PBUs. That was part of a defensive effort that helped hold the Trailblazers to a good, not great 300 yards of total offense. Overall this was a good showing for the Bears who were in total control of this one from whistle to whistle.
This Week: @ #10 SIU (3-0) (+9, 27.39%), 4 PM CST Sat 9/30, ESPN+
7. (-1) #23 Youngstown State (6.22, 4.22) (2-1, 0-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: @ Indiana State (0-3) (-15, 85.14%) Week 10
Toughest Game Remaining: #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+16, 12.98%) Week 11
Last Week: Bye
This Week: @ RV UNI (1-2) (+5.5, 33.12%), 1 PM CST Sat 9/30, PSN/ESPN+
6. (+1) Illinois State (6.27, 4.27) (3-1, 1-0)
Easiest Game Remaining: Indiana State (0-3) (-17.5, 91.45%) Week 7
Toughest Game Remaining: #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+18.5, 7.9%) Week 6
Last Week: Won Vs Lindenwood 48-17
Although Lindenwood hung around for almost 3 quarters the Redbirds were never really not in control of this one. They had a capacity home crowd on hand to see the victory. As far as some quick high level analysis, this was the best Annexstad has looked this year. While he has been inconsistent at times Hhe was very solid this week going 26/33 for 288 yds and TDs with an additional one on the ground. Although no one person had individual numbers that jumped off the page as a team they rushed for a very respectable 203 yards on 41 carries and 4 TDs.
Defensively they held Lindenwood to a very respectable 314 yards of total offense, but no one player in particular really lept out of the win or off the stat sheet to me this week.
This Week: Bye
5. (-1)RV Northern Iowa (5.77, 4.77) (1-2, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-4, 0-1) (-27, 96.89%) Week 10
Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+16.5, 12.31%) Week 7
Last Week: Bye
This Week: VS #23 Youngstown State (2-1) (-5.5, 66.88%), 1 PM CST Sat 9/30, PSN/ESPN+
4. (+1) #12 North Dakota (6.82, 4.82) (2-1, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-4, 0-1) (-25, 95.43%) Week 6
Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+18.5, 10.09%) Week 5
Last Week: Bye
This Week: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+18.5, 10.09%), 2 PM CST Sat 9/30, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+
3. #10 Southern Illinois (8.57, 5.57) (3-0, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Indiana State (0-3) (-27, 97.53%) Week 12
Toughest Remaining Game: @ #2 North Dakota State (3-0) (+10.5, 21.95%) Week 11
Last Week: Bye
This Week: Missouri State (1-2) (-9, 72.61%), 4 PM CST Sat 9/30, ESPN+
2. #2 North Dakota State (9.41, 6.41) (3-0, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Western Illinois (0-34, 0-1) (-37, 99.6%) Week 8
Toughest Remaining Game: @ #1 South Dakota State (3-0) (+4.5, 37.7%) Week 10
Last Week: Bye
This Week: South Dakota (2-1) (-21, 94.72%), 1 PM CST Sat 9/30, ABC(ND only)/ESPN+
1. #1 South Dakota State (9.81, 6.81) (3-0, 0-0)
Easiest Remaining Game: Missouri State (1-2) (-21, 93.1%) Week 12
Toughest Game: #2 North Dakota State (3-0) (-4.5, 62.3%) Week 10
Last Week: Bye
This Week: North Dakota (1-2) (-18.5, 89.91%), 2 PM CST Sat 9/30, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+
Game Previews:
Indiana State (0-3) @ Murray State (1-2) (+0.5), 6 PM CST Sat 9/30, ESPN+
Someone is going to have to win this football game. As of the time of writing this I am still unable to find what is wrong with Cade Chambers as well as what a time table is for when we might see him on the field this year. That means the ever turning wheel of QBs for Indiana State may very well keep on turning. If that is the case although he is not a world beater PJ Williams at least gives the Racers some stability on that other sideline. Give me the Racers in a very ugly, poorly played football game.
#23 Youngstown State (2-1) @ RV UNI (1-2) (-5.5), 1 PM CST Sat 9/30, PSN/ESPN+ *ALEX’S GAME OF THE WEEK*
When you look at how UNI has started the year I don’t think the concerns are so much that they have started 1-2 as that was a very real possibility having to play a P5 opponent in Iowa State and currently ranked 13th Weber State. However the concerns are more how they lost those games. Theo Day has not looked like the NFL prospect he is supposed to be at times, and while the front 7 has had some decent showings the back end of the defense has not been all that great at times despite the talented group led by NFL prospect DB Woo Governor. Youngstown on the other hand has looked about as expected thus far this season. They put up a decent fight against a top 5 FBS team in Ohio State, and handled business against their other 2 inferior opponents. Despite the departure of Jaleel McLaughlin the Penguins have been able to lean on Tyshon King and Dra Rushton to still average 219 yards of rushing offense per game. Mitch Davison hasn’t quite taken the step they need him to for them to be a real contender, but he has played well. Defensively the Penguins have been good, not great to the tune of 24.3 ppg and 322 total ypg.
Why the long season recaps for both teams? Because this game feels like a big turning point for either team. UNI had a ton of high hopes leading into the season, and with a win here they would have a win over a then ranked opponent and be back to 2-2. While the win for the Penguins would not look as good on paper down the road this would still be a good early year signature win for a young team in a hostile environment where the program has not won in 24 years (1999). And the matchups slate up perfectly for us to find out a lot about both teams. This Penguin defense is solid, but they are not world beaters. Can Theo Day pick them apart like you would think he would be able to? The Penguins are still very much a ball control run first team. This will be one of the tougher groups they’ll see in conference play. Can they still move the ball effectively on the ground when it is a tougher opponent? And on the flip side of that, if the UNI front 7 does continue to play well can Mitch Davidson finally take that next step and make some of the big time throws he will have against a secondary that has looked susceptible at times? I think you throw all this in with the fact it has the odds of being the closest of the interesting games on the slate and that is why I have picked it for game of the week. Should be a good one in Cedar Falls.
Missouri State (1-2) @ #10 SIU (3-0) (-9), 4 PM CST Sat 9/30, ESPN+
Coming off their first win of the season over Utah Tech the Missouri State Bears will travel to Carbondale, Ill to play the SIU Salukis. The Salukis are coming off their bye which was preceded by some thrilling last second Nic Baker heroics in a victory in “The War for the Wheel” over arch rival SEMO. Missouri State has had some success moving the ball through the air this year, averaging over 330 pypg on the arm of Jacob Clark. That will be tested this week against a very good SIU defense that is led by stud S PJ Jules. Jules is a player that is all over the field. He runs the alley really well to be a part of the run fit and makes a lot of tackles there while still finding ways to be a force on the back end of that defense. That will be the chess match on that side of the ball this week.
Defensively the Bears have not looked spectacular this year to be blunt and they will be up against an offense that has looked very good except for against FBS opponent NIU. Nic Baker turned the ball over twice against SEMO, I am looking for him to coral that this week. Otherwise this could shape up to be a very big day for him. Could we see some mounting momentum for Baker to make a Walter Payton award run?
South Dakota (2-1) @ #2 NDSU (3-0) (-21), 1 PM CST Sat 9/30, ABC(ND only)/ESPN+
This game will really come down to one thing. Do the Yotes come out ready to play offensively or does it take them a half to get going like it has the last 3 games? If they wait until halftime to start moving the ball, even with their stout defense the Bison will find enough production in the first half to make this one as good as over. It will also be interesting from the standpoint that USD’s coaching staff continues to talk about how they want to be a ball control offense, despite not having any real success running the ball outside of the 2nd half of a game against one of the worst rushing offenses in the FCS. Although the Bison secondary doesn’t look like it is going to be the weak point everyone thought, in fact they have been gashed way more on the ground (look at the UCA tape if you haven’t). I think USD needs to play into their strengths and give Aidan Bouman some easy reads and let him play. Get him into a rhythm early and see what he can do.
On the other side this actually might be the best test for Cam Miller so far this season. This Yote defensive group doesn’t get a lot of love when in reality they probably should. They are a fast and exciting group to watch make plays. Myles Hardin is probably the best DB Miller has gone against this season and Nick Gaes and Brendan Webb are probably the best passer rushers the NDSU o-line has had to play. It’ll be interesting to see if Cam Miller continues to look nearly perfect like he did against UCA or if Tyler Roehl even gives him the chance. While there are also plenty of run stoppers on the USD front the best way to get them honest is to run right at them. A lot has been made of Cole Payton currently being the leading rusher for the Bison and not an actual RB so it will be interesting to see who and how they scheme up their run game this week.
Ultimately if USD shows up ready to play and makes a few plays on offense their defense could keep them in it 4 quarters. If that happens while I still would think NDSU wins, it will be closer than the models and most analysts indicate. If USD comes out flat like they have the last few games this one will get ugly fast. Another weird/intersting fact if USD does somehow pull off the upset they would become just the 2nd active FCS team with multiple wins in the FargoDome in the D1 era.
#12 UND (2-1) @ #1 SDSU (3-0) (-18.5), 2 PM CST Sat 9/30, Midco SN/Midco+/ESPN+
I know it will probably surprise a lot of people that this was not the game of the week as it is the highest ranked matchup on the docket, but while I think the line is a little large I still don’t think it’ll necessarily be a barn burner. This has all the makings of a good competitive game where the Jacks’ size and physicality help them pull away late.
As we all know the UND offense is loaded with Tommy Shuester, Bo Belquist, Wes Elidor, and even Gaven Ziebarth is getting involved on the ground more then in years past. The Fighting Hawks are averaging a whopping 36.7 ppg and 427 ypg. Although the Jacks defensive unit continues to be among the best in the FCS holding opponents to 10 ppg and 258 ypg this will be a real test for them. The Jacks have cooled a little on their hot turnover streak from last year along with pass rush, but both will need to show up to be a difference maker in this one.
On the other side the Fighting Hawks playing a 3-4/3-3-5 type of defense allows them to give you a lot of different and disguised looks, but it also leaves them at a size disadvantage as well as opens up some large holes in their fronts especially when they bring extra guys if you can identify the blitzer and either run into the gap he is leaving, or hit a quick slant into that void in the zone. While UND has been better this year than years prior they really showed some cracks against Boise especially in the QB run game. Look for Mark Gronowski to have a big game both by air and ground and possibly we see some Chase Mason wrinkles?
Thanks as always for reading. I like all of you am looking forward to another great week of MVFC football!
Go Jacks!
Alex