A lot has been made about the recent situational efficiencies or lack thereof. When you look at the traditional/macro statistics they do not paint a pleasant picture:

• 22% on 3^rd Down
• 73% Redzone efficiency
• 45% Redzone TD Rate

These metrics are important, but often don’t tell the whole story. If you read/watch The Bluebloods-FCS Central on SI, you are familiar with the weekly segment Timothy Rosario does on success rate. However, for the uninitiated the long and the short is that success rate measures the percentage of the time you have a “successful play” often defined as if the play has set you up with a 50% chance or better of converting on the next snap, or as Timothy often even more simply describes it, “getting at least half of the yardage needed on 1^st and 2^nd down and converting on 3^rd down.” This is a great tool to measure play to play success, and the Jacks currently sit at roughly 42% on the season which is just a tick above the typical average of 40%. Meaning most of the time, independent of down and distance the Jacks move the ball at an ok rate.

This is a good and important metric but, I didn’t write this or bring it up just to regurgitate what you can find over on their site. I wanted to do a deeper dive looking at Series Conversion Rate. Whereas Success Rate looks at the success of any individual given play Series Conversion Rate is simply a measurement of what are the odds when you get a new 1^st down of making another 1st down or putting the ball in the end zone? Success Rate is a great tool as I’ve said, and it is good at looking at how well a team moves the ball independent of situation and can give you a good insight into tendency when charted out. It is better than Series Conversion Rate at giving you individual snapshots and predictability play to play.

I prefer Series Conversion Rate for a few reasons, first of all it is more practical in my opinion to how you grade a football game. If you get stuffed on first and second down but move the sticks on 3^rd, that is certainly good to know but immaterial to the flow of the game in my opinion. Your success rate for that set of downs is 33%, but your Series Conversion Rate is 100%. On the flip side if you gain 5 yards on first down, 3-4 on 2^nd down, but get stopped on 3^rd and punt your Success Rate for that series is 67%, whereas your Series Conversion Rate is 0%. To summarize, Series Conversion Rate in my opinion, is more indicative of sustained drives. Secondly, on a first down Success Rate views a 5 yd carry and a 28 yd play action pass as the same. Series Conversion Rate only rewards the play that moves the sticks. Lastly, a failure on 3^rd down does not hurt your Series Conversion Rate if you go for it on 4^th down and get it.

So now that I have bored you to death with a football statistics lesson let’s look at the Jacks. I have charted out all of their drives from their first two games and here is what I found:

• Offensive Series Conversion Rate is 70% on the season which is on par with a typical nationwide average. In any given year the national average hovers around 70%
• 60% of our Series don’t go past 1^st or 2^nd Down because they are already moving the sticks. That is insanely efficient and a sign of good rate of explosive plays. Some bad teams won’t hit 60% total on the season.
• By game the Jacks were crazy efficient against Sac State at 82% and a little below average but not horrible against Montana State at 64%

• To shift gears back to traditional statistics they were 45% on 3^rd against Sac State which is a respectable figure, and a dismal 7% against Montana State
• Using the drive charts and series conversion rate data I broke down season long 3^rd down trends
  • 3^rd and Short (3 or less) they’re 45% on the year which is not great when a typical target is 80%, but they were 80% against Sac State and only 12.5% against Montana State
  • 3^rd and Medium (4-6 yards to go) they’re 12.5% on the season, a good target is 45-50%. They were 30% against Sac State and 0% against Montana State
  • 3^rd and Long (7+) they have yet to convert this season. Target should be roughly 25%
• They are 100% on 4^th down when excluding the botched punt against Montana state.

So what are our key takeaways on this?

• The offense has played who I think will end up as two of the better defenses in the country and have held their own just fine
• This offensive so far has been fantastic at generating explosives, something that felt sorely missing last season, and when they are ahead of the chains they are really hard to stop

• The clear black spot on all of this is the obvious passing situations of 3^rd and medium and 3^rd and long. I’m not a scout or a coach by any means, but here’s what I think specifically needs to improve:
  • Pass Pro, 11 sacks through two games is the same mark as a 15 game season last year. Yes, not all is on the Hogs but the performance needs to be there. It is a high standard in Brookings, but we would not hold them to it if they were not capable
  • Chase’s decision making
    • Chase has been phenomenal this year, but there have been a few times he has missed guys on 3^rd Downs from locking onto one guy.
    • His pressure to sack conversion rate is 50%, I absolutely love that he is taking care of the football and not putting it in harm’s way. However, that is an average to below average water mark, and with his escapability I know he can drive that number down.

• • • • The Jacks need a second and 3^rd option as a pass catcher. Due to the veracity of the rushing offense Lofton O’Groske is still going to get one on ones on first and second down, and even some 3^rd and shorts due to the defense stacking the box. But if he wasn’t before he is almost certainly going to start being bracketed on must pass situations. Some of these other guys that are going to get more one on ones are going to have to step up. We’ve seen flashes from Alex Bullock, Brayden Delahoyde, and Grayton Gannon already. Graham Goering has shown flashes in the last two seasons as well. All 4 of these guys are more than capable of putting it together and finding some consistency. We know they can do it!
      • Lastly, the Jacks being perfect on 4^th down tells me we are in great hands with this staff. Coach Jackson and Coach Eidsness seem to have a great grasp both on when we should go for it as well as what guys need the football in those scenarios. That is super encouraging to me.

So to wrap this up, yes, the offense needs to find a little spark in some situational things, but don’t lose sight of just how good they have actually been especially against some really good competition early on.

Thanks for reading as always if you have made it this far, and if you want more content like this be sure to let me know. See everyone back here on the blog tomorrow for By The Numbers.

Go Jacks!

Alex